The FJ wager did not cost him WP% - it only cost him EV.

0>>>>>>15,000 both win % and $EV

If James misses, Nate is way less than 50% to get FJ correct.

I probably still bet 5401

Yeah he got a terrible draw he likely beats 99% of contestants he's matched up against.

I guess it is easy to criticize his DD wager in hindsight.. BUT he did have $13,400 vs $6,600 and was beating James to the buzzer frequently. If he got it wrong wagering $6k, he's still be in the lead with a legit chance to win, as opposed to zero with little to no chance.

After he got it right, he had $19,400 vs. $6,600. That's a solid lead that holds up in the huge majority of cases. His WP% had to be very high at that point. Even after James got the last DD correct, Nate still had a $3000 lead. James had to make a furious comeback at the very end to pull ahead.

You got see the instant regret on Nate's face after he got the DD right, mad at himself for not betting it all. It seemed like it might have also thrown his game off, because he was slow on the buzzer after that.

A $3000 lead with 2/3 of double jeopardy remaining is nothing tho

It's easy to say in hindsight that he should've bet more, but he was flat-out outplaying James to that point in the game. With only 1 DD left and more than twice James' score, it wasn't that crazy for him to think that was enough for a pretty safe lead. And unlike most of James' opponents who just need a hail mary, all-or-nothing bet to have any chance, he had reason to believe that he could legitimately keep up even if he got it wrong, so there was some value in leaving something behind. It's a debatable bet, but it's hardly an egregious mistake unless you're being totally results oriented. If he goes all-in on the DD, gets it wrong, and continues outplaying James the rest of the way but comes up just short of the lead in the end, I guarantee there would be people criticizing that bet for being unnecessarily risky and saying he blew his one shot at victory for that reason instead.

If he's highly confident in the category it's an egregious mistake

James goat comeback story.

#EyeOfTheTiger

I was telling my friend last night how the other guy was incredibly unlucky as he could have went on a 5+ show winning streak if not for running into James.

One thing I remember with Ken Jennings is how he seemed to often buzz in without the correct answer quite ready to go in his head, just because he seemed confident he'd dredge it up in the few seconds he had to answer (just based on the pause he'd sometimes have in answering). I kinda wonder if James took on that strategy late in the game, since he certainly seemed to regain his buzzer edge.

Agree with both of these posts even though they seem contradictory. I think the $6K bet is fine is he is not that confident in the category (it was $2k question too.) He should be betting >$8k in any category he feels reasonably confident in. I think the fact that it was a $2k question probably influenced him and the fact that they get basically 3 seconds to decide. If it was a $1200 or $1600, I think he snaps bets >$10k.

Just feel really bad for him and wish they would give really high scorers who lost a second chance.

If James keeps up with the "2 dimes" and the dice kiss and roll, I'll definitely be rooting against him.

Win now by doubling up (at least make it 95% in the lead at end of DJ) vs having to maintain an edge vs James through most of the round including an uncovered DD?

What’s your win percent vs James if you miss the $6000 wager. Score may be close but you are still likely effed even though you still have the lead.

Not a normal situation. You are up one or two strokes against in his prime Tiger. You’ve already played the 1st par five on the back nine. He hasn’t. Do you go for the green in 2 or do you layup on the 2nd par five?

What does that matter? If James misses Nate wins regardless of whether he gets it right or wrong whether he bets 0 or 15,000. WP% would be net even.

Perfect analogy. The only way to beat James is to bludgeon him with his own tactics. You must be ahead in FJ.

"It's better to burn out than to fade away"

I stand corrected on the win%. James is always cover betting. Lost my head there.

Stand by the EV. 3:2 dog vs a normal leader. I think 2:1 dog would be very optimistic when James misses.

You seem to be suggesting that it was just a lucky fluke that he was pretty consistently beating James on the buzzer and had built a big lead two-thirds of the way through the game, so he might as well gamble it up because he'll never sustain it. I don't think that's obvious at all and it certainly wasn't to anyone at that point in the game. Based on the way things were going, I don't think it would've been a stretch to say that had he missed, the outcome would've likely come down to who found the last DD. That's a long way from being likely effed considering he had managed to find the first two. Had he missed and gone to 0, then he's effed.

The better argument for why he should've pushed is that he's not likely to miss, but with a $2000 clue in a random category, maybe he figured he'd rather take his chances on James not basically running the table for the entire final third of the game. That's a gamble, but not the unmitigated idiocy of some of the wagers we see here every week. Credit to James for the amazing comeback, but it took a lot of things going right for him.

Dude runs up $70k+ without finding either DD in DJ.

W in T actual F

lol those two opponents, so hopeless

especially the dude who hits both DD's in DJ and finishes negative

gjge

Well, we keep saying opponents need to Get Rich or Die Trying, so let's not bag on the guy who died trying.

i was rooting for both the jobbers to finish in the negative so james could bet everything but $1 in fj

Not a very good analogy. Because Not only was Nate on the par five with the current daily double, but he could of gotten to play a second par 5 and James could of played 0

He's 26/27 on final jeopardy

How about being up 10 on the Warriors going into the fourth?

Up 25 on Tom Brady at the half?

Playing the GOAT. Being up 7800 to 6000 early in DJ has to be treated like being behind vs James. I’d even argue that >10,000>3,000>6,000. Keep a real lead at least?

My opinion- not going to beat the guy unless you go for the kill.

Just amazing. And considering he's had the lead 27/27 games, that means that if you're in 2nd against him going into FJ and it's somehow miraculously not a runaway, you still only have a 1/27 chance to win. (If these above stats somehow represent the real, long term chances
Small sample size, obv).

How many games has it not been a runaway so far? 3?