Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST) - Page 399

When we see a leader bet GTO, and as long as most of the other 2nd place players also do not go small in this situation there is no reason to adjust. This isn’t theoretical GTO exercise. We have lots of historical data to inform that GTO rarely applies. The psychology of the leader not winning after getting FJ correct is very powerful.

I should modify what I said before- if we are above 3/4 we can safely wager enough to pass first, then I’m fine with wagering enough to pass a $0 wager from 1st. Will still keep us above there cover bet.

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05-01-2019 , 08:02 AM

#9953

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,746

Average must be v close to Roger's record.

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05-01-2019 , 08:14 AM

#9954

ntnBO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 7,647

Quote:

Originally Posted by Biesterfield

What would your response be if you are facing off against a leader who knows that you know this?

I.e. at what point does GTO take over?

Never. A contestant cannot live with (life EV) the fact they were leading going into FJ, answered FJ correctly, yet lost the game. Plus you cannot trust the other contestant to wager GTO, otherwise this thread would not exist.

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05-01-2019 , 11:16 AM

#9955

PartyGirlUK

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Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 23,530

Q. is there a serious attempt to quantify how good a J! player's knowledge is? Comparing DD & FJ runs into to sample size problems but should yield something of use for contestants with a dozen+ games. Open to suggestions on how to use the buzzer questions but suspect they're of very limited use.

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05-01-2019 , 11:57 AM

#9956

ashley12

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 10,695

The jeopardy fan has some sweet info for breakdowns of total money earned, questions correct % etc

This article compared James to Ken Jennings without including James and his DD strat, and he compares very favorably

https://thejeopardyfan.com/2019/04/j...omparison.html

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05-01-2019 , 01:15 PM

#9957

Everlastrr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 12,897

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Average must be v close to Roger's record.

Roger's previous record game was $77,000.

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05-01-2019 , 02:24 PM

#9958

King~of~Diamonds

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 8,527

Guess how many games JH will win.
34

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05-01-2019 , 02:51 PM

#9959

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,746

Quote:

Originally Posted by King~of~Diamonds

Guess how many games JH will win.
34

that's basically right on pace to pass KJ regular game winnings.

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05-01-2019 , 07:42 PM

#9960

Bidz

Hurts so good

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 32,706

Quote:

Originally Posted by Everlastrr

He's so good there is not even a mention of the 5th highest score of all time that he logged earlier tonight. $96,726

and ... it's no longer the 5th highest

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05-01-2019 , 07:43 PM

#9961

King~of~Diamonds

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 8,527

Whoa. This guy thinks bad movies are... good

What a quirky cat

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05-01-2019 , 07:54 PM

#9962

King~of~Diamonds

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 8,527

I love that pharmaceuticals are such a huge enterprise that they can have a category of drugs beginning with one letter

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05-01-2019 , 09:24 PM

#9963

aditya

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 2,959

Quote:

Originally Posted by King~of~Diamonds

I love that pharmaceuticals are such a huge enterprise that they can have a category of drugs beginning with one letter

Seriously wtf - I was thinking the same thing. It’s sad that their marketing is so good that they etch the names of these drugs into peoples minds.

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05-02-2019 , 12:45 AM

#9964

Ungoliant

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,330

So the top 10 all-time high scores list is now literally all James.

https://www.jeopardy.com/contestant-zone/hall-of-fame

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05-02-2019 , 01:17 AM

#9965

ArcticKnight

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Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 20,805

This guy is awesome, but they should go back to some appearance ceiling. It used to be 5 days I think. Even if they capped it at 20 or 25..

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05-02-2019 , 01:31 AM

#9966

stinkypete

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 15,783

Quote:

Originally Posted by txdome

it isn't like J!'s goal was to spread the winnings around to make sure the winnings were spread around as evenly as possible.

If he chooses to do that it's easier to spread it around evenly if he has all of it

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05-02-2019 , 02:55 AM

#9967

riverboatking

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 23,793

I really don't understand this fascination with getting him off the show.
I'm seeing so many just horrendously idiotic takes about how bad he is for the game, how he's running the game, and how they need to get him off.

it seriously makes me lose what little hope I had for society.

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05-02-2019 , 02:58 AM

#9968

riverboatking

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 23,793

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArcticKnight

This guy is awesome, but they should go back to some appearance ceiling. It used to be 5 days I think. Even if they capped it at 20 or 25..

what on earth for????

so we can go back to ppl going from the top of the board to the bottom and betting 2K on a daily double and winning 25K?

how could anyone watch the show and not root for him?

I want to see him win 10mil.

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05-02-2019 , 03:03 AM

#9969

wetleg

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 7,633

Quote:

Originally Posted by King~of~Diamonds

Guess how many games JH will win.
34

I posted a few weeks ago about an over 29.5 wins bet that I made on James. Most people were skeptical then that he’d reach 30 wins.

I’d go over 34. I’m feeling around 45-50 might be his max now.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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05-02-2019 , 03:08 AM

#9970

stinkypete

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Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 15,783

Quote:

Originally Posted by wetleg

I’d go over 34. I’m feeling around 45-50 might be his max now.

The idea that he caps out at some specific number is nonsense. He doesn't become materially more likely to lose once he hits some number, unless it's all rigged and they want Jennings to keep the record. But that would be stupid because the ratings are only going to go up as he approaches the record. If he hits 35 he's almost definitely a favorite to go >50 and if he hits 50 he's probably a favorite to beat KJ's record.

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05-02-2019 , 04:35 AM

#9971

All-inMcLovin

Wholesome Mod

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 49,609

Obv I missed the show where he won by only $18.

After he beats Jennings' record I want to see them battle on Jeopardy heads up.

Spoiler:

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05-02-2019 , 06:20 AM

#9972

cobrakai111

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 3,947

Maybe a dumb question, I know there are standards and practices for game shows but do they vet every trivia question for a game like Jeopardy? If it eventually gets to a point where ratings drop or they are tired of losing 100k a night to this guy, could they just make the DDs extra hard? Or after getting a sense of his weaknesses after a long streak start stacking categories against him?

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05-02-2019 , 07:15 AM

#9973

RichGangi

Laughable false & highly douchey

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 9,546

Quote:

Originally Posted by riverboatking

Quote:

Originally Posted by riverboatking

Seriously.

Last edited by RichGangi; 05-02-2019 at 07:37 AM. Reason: Tweet

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05-02-2019 , 07:33 AM

#9974

danspartan

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,851

On my visit up to Foxwoods/Mohegan last week there were lots of requests to get TVs on J! This was during a tournament and as soon as folks folded they were watching James.

I don’t ever remember anyone asking for a cardroom TV be turned to J! Before.