Would also like a PM on online access if anyone has. Thanks.

Probably never, his last post in this thread was also his last post on the entire forum.

this is dark but it made me lol

The advice given to crockpot on how to get on the show. That explains his toothy grin.

GOGOGOGOGO CROCKPOT!!!!!

Yeah, just to be clear, I'm talking super long term. It's a huge draw for now and the foreseeable future, but I'm genuinely wondering what happens if he's just on the show for like 2 years and literally no one can beat him (which I recognize is possibly absurd, but his dominance makes me wonder).

Meh- his strategy is weighted a the extremes- his early big double up bets both increase his big win rate AND the likelyihood he will be at least vulnerable on a miss if he misses a second DD later or is not in a lock game at FJ. Somewhat polar- just seems to advantage on the high end far outweighs the disadvantage in the low end.

Just numbers off the top of my head, but with a high correct rate on the early big bet he probably gains 10-20 absolute points on the lock game side and loses at most 5 absolute points on the non-lock side.

He just recognized (and committed to) that at a high % correct on DDs the risk/reward is worth more than any other contestant.

That is very wrong and I laughed anyways.

They bring in Watson

As a sports gambler I think he is at an advantage. He has said he has no qualms betting huge amounts because it's only money. He also understands the huge advantage of winning the game in regulation over a tossup in FJ. He said as a sports bettor he shakes his head every time a team plays for the tie and overtime. Which got me thinking... when a football team kicks a xp for OT, they essentially are giving themselves a 50% chance of winning. But NFL teams convert 2pt plays at 60%. So clearly they should be going for 2 every time at the end of regulation when they are down 1.

Also losing a big DD early doesn't hurt him since he is still not far behind and has plenty of time to make it up. More likely way he loses is a big DD loss late.

Guy clearly understands odds and game theory, I've never understood why people always bet so little on DD's, when it's the only time you get precious extra seconds to think of the answer, aside from FJ.

In a 3-contestant game where all the money/EV goes to first place, you don't need to be correct a high % of the time on DDs to make wagering aggressively early on correct. The only time you shouldn't wager aggressively is if you have a large edge otherwise and aren't confident in the category.

Not only that but he utilizes the importance of getting the highest score possible before hitting a daily double. By starting at the bottom first he enables himself to build a higher score before hitting the DDs. His play seems optimal for anyone with a decent egde.

Also I agree with whoever said the money they are losing from his winnings is prob more than made up for in increased interest in the show. People I know who have probably watched 3 shows of jeopardy in their life are talking about this guy and watching every night. If he continues though I think the allure will fade. How long before people stop caring to watch every night cause the novelty has faded.

Hes averaging 70k a game, when prior to him the average for all contestants was prob what...25k? The show paying out an extra 45k a game might start to hurt.

Yeah starting from the bottom to maximize his amount of $ before a daily double is the huge +EV play that he makes that isn't common at all. His 'disaster' scenario is scooping up a bunch of round 1 $, missing the DD question and being in the hole for Rnd 2, then not landing on any of the DD clues. Or as someone mentioned, really hard DD clues that he gets wrong in all rounds (unlikely)

ya that actually is a very interesting question tho obv extremely unlikely.
I wonder if they would somehow buy him out to convince him to retire or what.

I wonder if each contestant signs something that gives the producers absolute power to remove them at any time for no reason other than the "good of the show".

I also wonder how long it would take the general audience to lose interest.
ppl still love watching mr. freeze destroy ppl in foot races at baseball games and he hasn't ever even come close to losing.

we have a real fascination with dominence and the fall from dominance.

I completely on board with his sgeneral strategy-point I’m trying to make is more subtle in that a missed DD may make him more vulnerable since he has otherwise such a huge edge on the buzzer and should be able to grind to locked games of say 30k-12k. His overall win% is clearly higher, but his one-off risk of losing when he misses that early double gives him a lower win% in those games.

More of thinking how he might lose.

Unlikely to get beat on the buzzer or knowledge. Most likely to lose when he misses the SJ double up. As long as the same if the pluses and minuses are positive then it’s correct- outcomes are just polarized somewhat.

EV can be very positive but winning/losing is binary.

(Put another way- clearly a superior strategy to why’s been done before but is it fully optimal or would some slight moderation bring a small gain in win %)?

He lost the first daily double the other day with like 8500 and still completely crushed.

I get what your saying and his strategy might need to be tweaked if his goal was win as many games as possible. If his goal is to win as much money as possible his strategy seems pretty optimal.

Would you rather win 20 games with a 70k average score or 30 games with an average score of 40k?

It makes sense to bet aggressively (all in on DD) early.

If he gets it right, with his edge he essentially has it locked down at that point (unless he finds it super early) and can play the final two DDs conservatively while still potentially running up a huge number, as he does.

Has anyone designed a Jeopardy monte carlo sim? It should be pretty easy (and interesting) to create one to find optimally exploitive strategies based on your edge over the opponents as an input. I'd be curious to see how unconfident in the category you'd need to be as a large favorite otherwise to bet anything but all in on an early DD.

His average is already way past Ken's or Roger's average.

He's saying his average might edge past their best scores

Agreed. What we've been seeing though from a few different instances is that when he hits the daily doubles in DJ and he's crushing, he'll bet a conservative amount (relative to the situation) to keep the game an essential lockout even if he misses. Like he'll have 28k to 8k in 2nd and he'll bet 12k, with only 1/3 of the clues left.

Obviously the former, but I don't think this is a realistically comparative hypothetical. If his goal was to win as long as possible, he could win 100+ games, still with that average score of 40k.

Not a chance the average for all contestants is 25k. Maaaaybe 17 or 18k. There are far more games where the winner ends up winning 10k-20k than 30k-40k.

I’m thinking optimal may be slightly less agressive. Mostly thinking about the 10k-10k game. The wager was pretty binary at that point- at least one contestant was keeping up with him at that point. Not sure if something like 7 or 8,000 might give most of the the upside without putting him in as desperate straits if he misses.

Yea I'm not sure what the numbers would be. It will be interesting if he tones down his strategy a bit if he is up against a tougher opponent and just tries to lock up the win.

Not sure if this has been posted, looks like a Jeopardy fan is compiling daily stats comparing
Holzhauer with Ken Jennings. Pretty interesting.

https://thejeopardyfan.com/2019/04/j...omparison.html