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Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST) Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST)

04-13-2019 , 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wyman
I was thinking about this from a $EV perspective and wondering what wager size starts to materially increase the (low) chance that he loses outright.



Like if he shoves on the first DJDD and is wrong (say 15% of the time, probably less, though I'm sure comfort level with the category has something to do with it), what % of the time does he lose?
Confidence in the category matters way more in these spots than this thread might have you believe. But it's also a function of his edge over the opponents in that particular game.

If the game is close between all players (suggesting your edge might not be big) and you don't hate the category it can't be wrong to bet huge. Daily Doubles are generally easier than final jeopardy, which is a big overlooked factor


Quote:

Because he's an enormous favorite to win every night that he's on the show, so while max $ in a given show matters a bit, keeping the gravy train rolling is the important thing. Getting to the next show (vs not) has to be worth like $400k in EV. Not to mention that part of the payout from being the ultimate crusher on jeopardy doesn't come from jeopardy, and this only happens if you have a crazy streak.
There's probably a good amount of value in being the guy who won over $100k on like 3-5 individual days too especially if setting a new record each time
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04-13-2019 , 02:55 PM
Some minor nits: there's a huge prior that he is way better than opps even in a close game so I disagree w you there. Also re:FJ bets, jamie for sure has an advantage already, since people are so bad at bet sizing (a small evidenced y this thread). So I think he's always incented to at least be in it. Your point abt FJ harder than DD is well taken though.
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04-13-2019 , 03:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
Watttt. He didn't come close to breaking own record. Went soft on the DJ DDs.
I disagree. The DD in the Jeopardy round was effectively a shove when he bet 9800 leaving just about 1K behind.

But I assume you are referring to the 2 DD bets in DJ. Many times in similar situation, AJ would go into lock down mode. He would hunt DD clues just to pat and bury them from the competitors and when they were gone he would select low value clues and use the full shot clock to preserve the run away.

In contrast, Crockpot still bet 11K and 12K. Seriously, his bets were significant enough that Friday would have been the single game record high had he not made the 6 figure score earlier in the week.
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04-13-2019 , 05:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wyman
(a small evidenced y this thread)
*as evidenced by this thread

Thx iPhone....
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04-14-2019 , 11:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketInfinities
+1 to ^^^^

Also, depending on whether Friday’s show was the 5th show taped that day (it used to be that Wed-Tues were taped in a single day, maybe it’s Mon-Fri now?), it’s understandable that he might want to take a more conservative approach if he knows he’s feeling tired or on his B/B+ game instead of his A game (conservative = merely locking up the win).

Still, pretty funny that we’re discussing this on the day he sets the 2nd highest score of all time.
They tape M-F's shows in one day and have for quite some time now. So yes, he had a damn good taping day!
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04-14-2019 , 02:41 PM
I would swear I just saw him in the front row of the crowd cheering Tiger when he won The Masters
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04-14-2019 , 04:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pot Odds RAC
I would swear I just saw him in the front row of the crowd cheering Tiger when he won The Masters
screenshot yo
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04-14-2019 , 07:54 PM
Probably looked like a mashup of these.




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04-15-2019 , 07:41 PM
Rut Roh?
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04-15-2019 , 07:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntanygd760
Rut Roh?
I may have overreacted
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04-15-2019 , 08:35 PM
****in BEAST
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04-15-2019 , 08:36 PM
i'm gonna start showing all my teeth now, i think crockpot started something here
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04-15-2019 , 08:41 PM
i wonder if it's a sociopath thing where he thinks he's making a nice smile or if he knows it's a meta dominance play which not only throws off the other contestants, it throws me off at home. i used to be good at jeopardy at home but crockpot is such a dominating presence i've been totally blowing it the last 7 episodes.
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04-16-2019 , 04:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntanygd760
Rut Roh?
The guy in the lead after Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST) got stacked on the first DD had less than 2 DJ questions worth of points. Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST) went from like a 98% favorite to 85%
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04-16-2019 , 06:15 AM
It looked like Jeopardy kidnapped Megan and made her play today at gunpoint
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04-16-2019 , 02:13 PM
My wife has a relative who is in a senior executive at a college (I start with that as a baseline for his Facebook friends' demographic).

Her relative posts on Facebook how impressed he is with Crockpot's play on Jeopardy!

What follows in the comments is an unending stream of vitriol and hate.
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04-16-2019 , 02:24 PM
Why the hate
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04-16-2019 , 02:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
Why the hate
The "arrogant smile" for one.

"Professional Sports Gambler" for another.

Plus the average Jeopardy! fan thinks starting at the bottom and hunting DDs is somehow "cheating."

The average fan (and a majority of contestants) do not think of it as a strategy game, they think of it as a simple knowledge/trivia completion. I'm also convinced that a lot of contestants don't realize the implication of (or maybe don't know ) that only the winner keeps the money.

You'd be surprised how many people don't actually read the rules. When I was on WWTBAM, most of the contestants in the Green Room didn't know that if you won $500k or $1M, you initially only got $250k - the rest being paid out as an annuity ($25k/year * 10 years for $500k winners, $37.k/year * 20 years for the million)

Shocked, one asked "How do you know that???" I answered, "Uh, I read the rules."
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04-16-2019 , 07:45 PM
The other 2 seem a bit shook
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04-16-2019 , 08:25 PM
he came to dominate jeopardy and wish his friends happy birthdays and he's all out of birthdays
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04-16-2019 , 10:07 PM
How soul crushing must it be to make it all the way onto an episode of Jeopardy then realize that you're just gonna get steamrolled by this guy
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04-16-2019 , 10:19 PM
I was just thinking the same thing. And Alex is almost openly rooting for the guy to break all kinds of records and chuckling with him about his soul-crushing DD bets while the other players are just standing there watching their Jeopardy dreams being obliterated 5 minutes into the game.
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04-16-2019 , 10:27 PM
goats gonna goat

he's actually been on the nitty side on his later daily double bets lately. if he was trying he'd probably be like 60% on any given day to beat the pre-goat single day record.
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04-16-2019 , 10:39 PM
I don't have the numbers exactly, but am I correct that he was a few hundred dollars short from being able to bet enough in FJ to break record, yet still win if wrong.

off top of head it was like 66 vs 11. So he can do 44, getting him to 110, but record is 100.9
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04-16-2019 , 11:14 PM
A buddy and I bet on just about everything. I set the o/u on Crockpot’s wins at 29.5 and he took the under for $100. What side do y’all like?


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