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Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST) Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST)

03-01-2019 , 09:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaddy
Maybe putting the weakest links in FJ is not the best strategy. Teams Alex and Roger are really hampered by their weak links.
The team with Alex is in the wild card because Buzzy was FJ in game 2 vs Team Brad.
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03-01-2019 , 03:44 PM
The 4 best teams, IMO are the one's with two elite elite players, which would be:

Ken, Matt

Brad, Larissa

Buzzy, Alex (though I'd maybe rank Buzzy slightly lower)

Then Austin and Roger.

If three of those teams are in the final all the strategizing will be super interesting. Even if Team Colby luckboxes it'll still be fun. Been great to watch even with the slower match play.
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03-01-2019 , 08:59 PM
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03-01-2019 , 11:42 PM
Alex all-ins are great. Too bad missed the second one. Arguable that he shouldn't have shoved the second time. Had enough of a lead to make up for the first game zero.

Final really should be 3 games.
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03-02-2019 , 12:12 AM
I really thought Alex was gonna bet small on that daily double especially considering how difficult the the earlier soundtrack clues were... he’s def an elite elite jeopardy player
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03-02-2019 , 01:56 AM
i think his allin move was right considering it was the $800 clue (wasn't it?)

I'm honestly shocked he didn't know it, I consider myself a decent couch watching player and know 50-60% of the board in a usual game, but these clues/categories for the all star games level of difficulty have seen ridiculous, at least to me. Of maybe the 6-8 clues in DJ I knew, mostly all on the lower lines, that was one of them.

And Pretty Woman was a bad guess tbqh.

Still love Alex as a player though obv, we all blow it sometimes.
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03-02-2019 , 04:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thedinergetsby
i think his allin move was right considering it was the $800 clue (wasn't it?)

I'm honestly shocked he didn't know it, I consider myself a decent couch watching player and know 50-60% of the board in a usual game, but these clues/categories for the all star games level of difficulty have seen ridiculous, at least to me. Of maybe the 6-8 clues in DJ I knew, mostly all on the lower lines, that was one of them.

And Pretty Woman was a bad guess tbqh.

Still love Alex as a player though obv, we all blow it sometimes.
I think Pretty Woman is a fine guess if you don't 100% know it. Pretty Woman was 1990 and "Girl you'll be a woman soon" might be a song name to a song in Pretty Woman.

Bottom line is you either know those 2 songs are from Pulp Fiction or you don't. If you don't Pretty Woman is as a good of a guess as you can get

I was rooting for Alex especially since he has 2p2 ties
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03-02-2019 , 04:18 AM
i think i commented in another thread, the Alex Jacobs on jeopardy thread.

i think he knew immediately that was too big a bet. i think he could accomplished alot by betting half his money.

he, and maybe the others, hadn't done well on the other clues in the category

also, the category is soft wired info and essentially open-ended, unlike many that aren't. it's not something you can easily cram study which i'm pretty sure alex and others did. that jackson kid had 450K flash cards. and something alex said makes me think he cram learned for quite awhile too, although i'm sure nothing like jackson.

good point that it's the $800 clue, which are generally much easier than $2000 clue. but does that apply to daily doubles? not sure it does.

hey, i knew final jeopardy........

i'm inclined to think alex is the second best player in this tournament. i think ken jennings is better (much better?). i also think the jackson kid is amazing but alex smoked him in TOC (small sample size). alex is seemingly so quick on the buzzer in single jeopardy (which isn't so knowledge-intensive).

there were 2 games and 3 rounds. and you couldn't repeat spots. so your best player does single and double, you next best player does double and final and then the last player should do single and final. final is a crap-shoot. that was not a particularly hard question tonight and 3 top players went 0-3. so much volatility/randomness in FJ.
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03-02-2019 , 05:02 AM
Quote:
good point that it's the $800 clue
it was the $1600 clue

Quote:
the $800 clue, which are generally much easier than $2000 clue. but does that apply to daily doubles? not sure it does.
it does

Quote:
he, and maybe the others, hadn't done well on the other clues in the category
Quote:
I really thought Alex was gonna bet small on that daily double especially considering how difficult the the earlier soundtrack clues were.
the $1200 clue roger got. the $2000 clue they all got wrong. people are acting like was a category where the other four clues were triple stumpers.

Quote:
I think Pretty Woman is a fine guess if you don't 100% know it. Pretty Woman was 1990 and "Girl you'll be a woman soon" might be a song name to a song in Pretty Woman.
1994 is a pretty famous year for movies, so picking something from 1990 does seem pretty bad. but if you don't know it you don't know it!

Quote:
i think he could accomplished alot by betting half his money.
i strongly disagree.

i'm stunned and saddened that he didn't get it, but he obviously played great overall and the team strategy was on point throughout.
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03-02-2019 , 05:12 AM
i don't think it's been mentioned in this thread but jeopardy have been uploading the full uncut versions of all the team discussions to their youtubes.

this one is hard to watch

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03-02-2019 , 10:14 AM
Watching Matt Jackson play, I said out loud that I thought he should have been a captain. My wife was like “hell no, that dude gives me the creeps” and her friend immediately agreed with her. Then seeing him at the team discussion where Monica made a joke about their betting strategy and him being extremely awkward about it, I understand why the producers didn’t pick him.

But I doubt there are many regular viewers who think that Colby is a stronger player than Matt or Alex. With Roger, I don’t think his “hit the buzzer and see what happens” style worked well with the format.
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03-02-2019 , 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
Watching Matt Jackson play, I said out loud that I thought he should have been a captain. My wife was like “hell no, that dude gives me the creeps” and her friend immediately agreed with her. Then seeing him at the team discussion where Monica made a joke about their betting strategy and him being extremely awkward about it, I understand why the producers didn’t pick him.

But I doubt there are many regular viewers who think that Colby is a stronger player than Matt or Alex. With Roger, I don’t think his “hit the buzzer and see what happens” style worked well with the format.
Matt's brilliant, but being a captain wouldn't be in his skill set.

The bolded is classic Asperger's;difficulty parsing language to recognize humor.
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03-02-2019 , 02:53 PM
The 2nd all in bet by Alex was the worst I've ever seen in the history of the show. He did not need to do that. Bet small and coast to a win. He bet like he was down by 40k. And now we're stuck with cocky Colby for another week. And how did none of them get General Eisenhower 1952? That was an easy one for supposed All Stars.
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03-02-2019 , 06:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by j555
The 2nd all in bet by Alex was the worst I've ever seen in the history of the show. He did not need to do that. Bet small and coast to a win.
He couldn't coast to a victory by betting small. It was a two-day match and they were down $7600 from day one. He could however comes close to locking up a win if he got it right.
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03-02-2019 , 08:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by j555
The 2nd all in bet by Alex was the worst I've ever seen in the history of the show. He did not need to do that. Bet small and coast to a win. He bet like he was down by 40k. And now we're stuck with cocky Colby for another week. And how did none of them get General Eisenhower 1952? That was an easy one for supposed All Stars.
mostly agree............. i think it's the worst non-FJ wager i remember... in the teen tournament, a kid risked a locked game in FJ and lost. it wasn't like he got anything extra ($$$$) if he got it correct. i'm thinking maybe the kid didn't watch the show and was unclear on the rules/strategy.

agree that Eisenhower was on the easier side for FJ....... i'm surprised these players don't have a mental algorithm for getting FJ. go backwards quickly on presidents would get you to eisenhower. if it doesn't work by early 1920's, then start thinking why someone would never have held office (business man, military, sort sort of other hero).... did colby misinterpret the question? he had eisenhower but wrong year.

here's a Q. 4 US presidents B4 DJT never held elected office before. i could get 3 .
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03-02-2019 , 08:17 PM
on alex betting, here's where they were at:

alex 15600 (zero day before)

girl 4800 (7600)

roger 4900 (5200).

so alex was in comfortable lead AND he had much flexibility on playing FJ (i assume the others can't risk their money from the first day on 2nd day FJ)

so if he bets a 5000 and wins, he's nicely into a locked down FJ (time to play of course, but i think that favours Alex).

if he bets 5000 and loses, he's behind by 2000 with time to play.

7.5K would get him into lock down FJ with a correct answer. and he'd be still in serious contention with a wrong answer

i don't think anyone would question a substantial bet, but why did he need to get to 31.2k. the girl might get to 24K or so with great J play after daily double and getting the FJ right.

seems like 8.5k bet would have worked just as well on the high end but left 7k for FJ (and whatever alex wins later). that 8.5k has alot of conservatism built in because it assumes girl picks up 4k and alex nothing. and alex beat her 3600 to 2800 after FJ.

anyway, bad bet. i don't think it's debatable.......... don't get me wrong, one of the bigger poker tourneys i was ever in, i was close to chip leader and basically got bounced from the tourney racing with JJ (vs. KK). it's like i lost my head and trusted my read way way too much. so i understand losing your head.
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03-02-2019 , 08:51 PM
Ya I kinda agree with birdie - I was initially supportive of the allin bet but there's actually less money on the board than it seems. You had the 12 low-value clues left (7200), and then you had 1 2000 and 1 1200. I feel like Alex thought he needed to get to 30000 for a full lockout, which is correct if Pam gets both the 2000 and 1200 clue, but the actual lock out target is between 23000 and 27000. Say he bets 5600 and gets it right, and the round proceeds as it did.

Going into FJ, Team Buzzy would have 0+24800, Team Colby would have 7600+7600=15200/22800, and Team Austin would have 5200+8900=14100/23000. That's a full lockout there. The key is that the lower-value clues are likely to get split fairly evenly, so though there's 7200 in those clues, it is likely to get split 2400/2400/2400.

On the other hand, if Alex bets 5600 and misses, you still have 10000, and FJ would be 0+13600/27200, and the same 15200/22800 and 14100/23000.
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03-02-2019 , 10:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie

i'm inclined to think alex is the second best player in this tournament. i think ken jennings is better (much better?). i also think the jackson kid is amazing but alex smoked him in TOC (small sample size). alex is seemingly so quick on the buzzer in single jeopardy (which isn't so knowledge-intensive).
Wait, what happened to Brad? Sure, he kind of sucked in the first round match, but given his overall body of work, Brad has to be higher than Ken.

I think Alex probably has a little bit smaller knowledge base than either of them, but he is definitely quicker than Ken and amazingly also quicker than Brad on the buzzer. That's arguably worth more than the knowledge deficit, since on most of the clues, they will all know the answer.
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03-02-2019 , 10:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckleslovakian
I think Pretty Woman is a fine guess if you don't 100% know it. Pretty Woman was 1990 and "Girl you'll be a woman soon" might be a song name to a song in Pretty Woman.

Bottom line is you either know those 2 songs are from Pulp Fiction or you don't. If you don't Pretty Woman is as a good of a guess as you can get

I was rooting for Alex especially since he has 2p2 ties
I think Alex's main problem on that clue is that he was just too young for it. If he's 10 years older, he gets that easy.
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03-03-2019 , 12:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by j555
The 2nd all in bet by Alex was the worst I've ever seen in the history of the show. He did not need to do that. Bet small and coast to a win. He bet like he was down by 40k. And now we're stuck with cocky Colby for another week. And how did none of them get General Eisenhower 1952? That was an easy one for supposed All Stars.
Most are forgetting that Alex collected a lot of the remaining money after that miss thereby skewing what people think was needed for a lock. Had he answered the DD correctly, it was still possible that would not have been enough for the lock, although it was probable.

So let's ask ourselves, what are his odds on a 4th row clue of answering correctly? Most estimates I've seen are between 2 in 3 and 3 in 4 and I agree with those numbers. So that means with wagering everything he gives his team a 70% chance of victory. Do you think other wagers show higher winning chances?

I'm not going to state with absolute certainty that his wager was optimal, the math gets very muddy for sure. But I know without question it wasn't a bad wager.

We are not stuck with Colby for another week, rather two more days.

Sure, like others, I was surprised FJ was a TS. But sometimes any player can simply blank on a question, this isn't multiple choice after all. And this one had two pieces, who the President was, then what year was he (first) elected.

So I'd cut the contestants a little slack when playing for a million dollars under stage lights in front of millions of viewers while wearing makeup.
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03-03-2019 , 01:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie
... in the teen tournament, a kid risked a locked game in FJ and lost.
Lol for realz? I've always wondered if someone lost a locked game
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03-03-2019 , 01:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
Lol for realz? I've always wondered if someone lost a locked game


Still the winner of the thread title
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03-03-2019 , 01:54 AM
at least I am guessing that is what he was referring to...
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03-03-2019 , 01:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckleslovakian




Still the winner of the thread title
Lol. That's good stuff. Would also like to see a 9k vs 20k where 20k bets > 1,999
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03-03-2019 , 08:09 AM
It’s too bad the two teams with players who have posted on 2p2 lost.
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