That's what I've been saying all along. I think she's a better champion than Chu and that's why she's won 6 more days than he did. Julia is better on the buzzer and has more knowledge. She doesn't need to bet everything on the DD and risk losing the game because she can defeat them straight up.

What was the argument when Roger Craig was going up against Ken and Brad? Well, he needs to get lucky to win, hit a couple DD's and double up because he's going up against better players. Julia is that better player. She doesn't need the boom or bust strategy of Roger Craig.

This is silly, it's the all-encompassing Jeopardy thread. There is no hard and fast rule for posting because it's impossible to have one due to tons of air times. Hell, until this season I saw it at 11am central time.

People saying that this thread should just be for wagering discussion shouldn't care who wins the game. All that matters is wagering strategy. People saying it's all-encompassing should realize there could be spoilers day of. It's self-policing as is. Sort of like living on the west coast and staying away from a Facebook page about a TV show that has already aired on the east coast.

Common sense people.

Right, but at the time the bet was made, I would expect the 200 better lost a greater percentage of their overall equity. I think it was something like 15000 to 5k with a couple of clues left, betting 200 gave her something pretty close to 0% equity, while betting it all probably ensures that it's a non-lock game. At least the 600 bettor only went from ~50% equity to ~20% equity instead of lighting 95% of it on fire. I guess in percentage terms, the 200 better was worse, in absolute terms, the 600 bettor.

Nobody thinks she isn't a boss wrt knowledge/buzzer.

It's that she's had the best table selection OAT. Not her fault but how many of her opponents weren't drawing dead against anyone competent?

I think there were a few opponents that were probably more competent than they appeared because they never got a chance to hit a DD and make a real bid at the game. She shut so many people out with her buzzer skills and broad knowledge base it's hard to accurately judge exactly how lucky she has been wrt opponent draws. Obviously that 200 wager person and the other one were a special kind of stupid, but then there is probably also a tendency for bad players to get shellshocked facing a long-streak champion and play even worse than they would normally. It seems there is at least one completely hopeless player on an average day, so even though she probably caught a few more than her fair share it doesn't mean she would've lost by now with a more natural distribution. I've only watched Jeopardy seriously for a couple years but can remember Ken's opponents looking hopeless constantly for similar reasons though obviously he ran scores in the process.

It's going to take a player a couple standard deviations above average catching the right categories/DD/FJ or whatever to put an end to her reign, and there's no telling when that is actually going to happen. To downplay that is about as big of a mistake as her betting strategy imo. I'm willing to risk my post looking stupid if she loses tomorrow, it seems like a bigger risk that haters look way worse if she's here ten days from now or god forbid longer than that.

Annoying bump, was clearing out some old eps from the DVR from a few months ago, just watched the whole College Tournament from February. Day 2 of the finals tilted the **** out of me:

That 5K bet might be the worst thing I've seen since the triple all-in in the kids' tournament a while back. So tilted that the guy got FJ wrong and she didn't get punished for not covering.

Now assuming logical play, the guy actually should have bet $0 here to win on the double-stumper if she makes a reasonable cover bet; in that case, her pull-a-number-out-of-my-ass bet brings them into a tie.

She admitted on jboard that in the heat of the moment she felt the guy deserved to win, so she wagered small so that he would win if answered correctly. If he did not answer correctly then it was meant to be for her to win.

Yeah, I read that a bunch of times not believing what I was seeing. She later realized just how stupid it was because "she was representing her school".

Kids.....

no one said posts can't be about something that isn't wagers. since most of the thread isn't able to watch the show in the afternoon (i've not seen a breakdown of where it airs in the afternoon but i think it's more common to air it in the evening), it would just be common courtesy to put things in spoilers. i've seen this behavior before ITT, which is why I thought there had been an agreement that I wasn't privy to. i agree i should've been smarter about opening the thread, but i also don't think i should have to be.

I think the main point is it's a totally useless post regardless of when it's made.
when we need capt obv to post the results of a game with no interesting tidbits whatsoever we'll let u know.

I do love how u completely ignored my question of what the point of your post was?

hey guys the kings won today!
DISCUSS!

What is hockey?

I also would prefer the day's episode be in spoiler tags until the East Coast episode airs. I'm on the West Coast, so I'm always aware that if I click on the thread after 1 p.m., I'm doing so at a risk of being spoiled. Usually there isn't anything at that time, and it's nice to be able to discuss the previous episode the next day until 4 p.m. without having to worry about that night's episode being spoiled.

Julia has been impressive the past two games. I'd just like to see her face a decent player who knows how to play strategically every once in a while.

Uhm, not at all wagering related, but this video is pretty interesting wrt "what time does the show air?" discussion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUir6wJ1K3U

J! at 7:30pm is probably the ideal since it leads into your primetime and you don't have to deal with burning the half hour that Wheel would probably air in otherwise.

All the graphs/stats without the video: http://www.graphgraph.com/2014/03/je...aphs-and-maps/

Lost in the whole spoiler discussion was the fact that that was a ridiculously easy DJ board (particularly the $2000 clues -- I had a Coryat of $30,400 on DJ alone) that proved Julia's buzzer superiority. It was a shame she blanked on FJ, she deserved a bigger payday.

Show your math?
200 bet guaranteed a runaway. Avoiding a runaway gets in the range of needing a WR FJ combo (which runs about 19%)
So win % went from 19% to 0%.

(actually smaller than 19% since the runaway was still possible with a couple of clues left?)

600 bet lost on any combination except WR (19%) but if wagered properly, will also win on WW (28%)--essentially making FJ all about 1st's answer.
So win % went from 47% to 19%.

Of course EV takes into account the scores that I don't have time to look up, but lets assume the win% is close enough.

My 2 cents on timing--before 8PM Eastern I'd like to see tags. As long as its about jeopardy or an occasional WoF LOL its OK. Posting just to post the result is lame (hmm wonder if Danspartan is guilty of that itt).

ya the boards have seemed pretty easy lately and that FJ was a snap get.
but could see how it would be tough for non-cinephiles.

Indiana Jones was a terrible guess tho, he's talking the whole damn movie wtf.

I think she has an vast base of knowledge but isn't very good at making educated guesses.

For some reason the first thing that popped into my head on that FJ was Doc Brown, but 3 seconds later I was like ldo.

Indy was a really bad guess. Rambo, Conan, Mad Max, etc. Plenty of non-verbal stars with sequels. Not gonna eat her lynch for that, though. We all have brainfarts.

what was the answer

Terminator. I was thinking Rambo until about 5 secs left before I came up with it.

Julia even tweeted that she knew it was wrong, but obv writing an answer you're 99.9% sure is wrong is better than writing nothing. It happens.

The way I see it is that the $600 bettor went from 100% equity to 0% equity. He went from winning outright to losing outright. How much worse than that does it get?

i meant what was the question, thanks for the spoiler!

Who is the Terminator?

In 1984, in the first of the films featuring this character, he only has 21 lines, for a total of 133 words.

She's done it again. Another day, another runaway. I didn't think the other two idiots would even get to FJ in the black. Streak now up to 17, 7 more days than Chu. I don't think anyone can stop her.

Sigh, here we go again on the spoiler discussion. I nominate 8PM eastern.

100/0 is results oriented thinking, generally frowned on in these parts.