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Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST) Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST)

02-28-2014 , 09:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurn, son of Mogh
Yeah, well, until one of the above can actually beat Brad Rutter, they're all still playing for 2nd place.
Has Rutter ever lost a jeopardy match to a human?
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02-28-2014 , 10:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by D104
Also love the DD wagering in double jeopardy. Semeret can bury Arthur, but pussies out and bets 1200. Less than a minute later Arthur bets 8k LIKE THE ****ING BOSS THAT HE IS
Semret on a second row clue, no less. I was expecting something close to all-in, that was a true FINISH HIM!!! moment.
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02-28-2014 , 11:30 PM
All,

Holy **** wow that dude just straight threw away $20,800. Wowowoow.
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02-28-2014 , 11:37 PM
Plus future equity! Not that much obv haha.
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02-28-2014 , 11:46 PM
Just found out about this Arthur guy today. Subscribed.
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02-28-2014 , 11:57 PM
what was the final q

missed tonights ep pretty sad now
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03-01-2014 , 12:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pwnsall
what was the final q

missed tonights ep pretty sad now
4 letter suffix to describe political ish scandals since 1973

Obv not verbatim, but thats the essence of it
Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST) Quote
03-01-2014 , 12:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by D104
Also love the DD wagering in double jeopardy. Semeret can bury Arthur, but pussies out and bets 1200. Less than a minute later Arthur bets 8k LIKE THE ****ING BOSS THAT HE IS
yea awful bet but i thought he got kinda ****ed on the question anyway. that seemed tough for an $800 clue.

re: FJ, maybe this guy just didn't know arthur plays for ties. i know that runs contrary to my earlier point about them watching tapings etc, but maybe he's just sat in the audience and seen arthur blow tons of people out in runaways and now he's up.

if he thinks arthur is betting $401 (like 95%+ of champs are), then his wager isn't the worst in jeopardy history. but yea it's bad and that guy definitely wants to kill himself right now.
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03-01-2014 , 12:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimTimSalabim
Just found out about this Arthur guy today. Subscribed.


[next week is 90s decade week, so no arthur again til march 10]

Oh and:
Arthur Chu ‏@arthur_affect 2h
Fun fact: @semretlemma told me after tonight's game "You thought you were doing me a favor by betting to tie but you ruined my life"
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03-01-2014 , 12:02 AM
interview w/ arthur by ken jennings: http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/...about_the.html

just seen this:

Arthur Chu ‏@arthur_affect 2h
Fun fact: @semretlemma told me after tonight's game "You thought you were doing me a favor by betting to tie but you ruined my life"
Expand

the black dude's twitter confirms my above theory that he only witnessed runaways. sick.
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03-01-2014 , 12:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeti
interview w/ arthur by ken jennings: http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/...about_the.html

just seen this:

Arthur Chu ‏@arthur_affect 2h
Fun fact: @semretlemma told me after tonight's game "You thought you were doing me a favor by betting to tie but you ruined my life"
Expand

the black dude's twitter confirms my above theory that he only witnessed runaways. sick.
it makes sense. i believe they tape a week in a day, so semret only witnessed arthur in runaway scenarios. Also he had no prior knowledge about arthur betting to tie in the other games because he wouldn't have been there for the airing of those week's episodes.
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03-01-2014 , 12:07 AM
Quote:
The only time I’d consider betting for the win would be if I were facing someone who really was a lot better than average
kinda surprising because i think the black guy was pretty good

btw arthur was really impressive on that vowels category
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03-01-2014 , 12:08 AM
Any wager other than all in by semret is terrible because his only win equity comes from getting the question correct. But it's no worse than most other betting mistakes made every day on jeopardy, unless he knows arthur offers ties. If he knows that, it's apocalyptically bad.
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03-01-2014 , 12:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeti
yea awful bet but i thought he got kinda ****ed on the question anyway. that seemed tough for an $800 clue.

re: FJ, maybe this guy just didn't know arthur plays for ties. i know that runs contrary to my earlier point about them watching tapings etc, but maybe he's just sat in the audience and seen arthur blow tons of people out in runaways and now he's up.

if he thinks arthur is betting $401 (like 95%+ of champs are), then his wager isn't the worst in jeopardy history. but yea it's bad and that guy definitely wants to kill himself right now.
Yes, I think he absolutely thought Arthur was going to bet $401, with some tiny chance he might lose his mind and bet it all in a blaze of double-up glory, which meant if they both missed he could win (depending on what the other contestant did), and it never entered his mind Arthur would play for a tie.
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03-01-2014 , 01:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeti
yea awful bet but i thought he got kinda ****ed on the question anyway. that seemed tough for an $800 clue.
Alan Funt, man.
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03-01-2014 , 01:25 AM
Legend,

I agree Funt/candid camera was pretty easy.
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03-01-2014 , 01:45 AM
I'm honestly surprised Arthur offered the tie to Semret, he seemed to be the top 10-20% of challengers (ignoring his lolbad $1200 DD wager).
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03-01-2014 , 01:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by legend42
Alan Funt, man.
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03-01-2014 , 08:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeti

if he thinks arthur is betting $401 (like 95%+ of champs are), then his wager isn't the worst in jeopardy history. but yea it's bad and that guy definitely wants to kill himself right now.
Its 1000% awful. He needs Arthur to get it wrong, he needs to get it right.

Lets go through the scenarios:

If its right/right he loses (as we saw)
If its wrong/right he ties and does NOT win max dollars.
he loses in any other scenario

If he bets the full monty
If its right/right he ties and wins MAX dollars
If its wrong/right he wins and wins MAX dollars

(And right/right is a solid 5:3 favorite over wrong/right on top everything else).

Even in the scenario where Arthur does a traditional 1st place 401 bet.

IF its wrong/right he wins MAX dollars, loses any other scenario.
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03-01-2014 , 09:59 AM
ok, now work out:

a) the % of the time him betting what he did and not everything affects the outcome of the game (again, he doesn't know arthur is going to play for the tie. and it's very possibly more like 99%+ of champs that play for the win, not 95% that i randomly quoted earlier)

and compare that to

b) the likelihood player C does something ******ed (e.g. bets everything inexplicably and gets it wrong) and him not betting everything means he goes home with $2k instead of $1k


i'm not endorsing the bet. it's just not as bad as everyone says.



random unrelated:

watched a brad rutter jeopardy flashback game today from 2000 today. one clue left on the board in DJ, brad has $14100, woman has $7000. she gets it and it's a daily double. alex: 'oh my, what are you going to bet, brad has more than double you so you need to bet something!' woman: 'erm..ahh...ugh......$600'

hehe. although brad's DD wagering in that game was highly embarrassing also.
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03-01-2014 , 11:29 AM
interesting bidding game with brad

http://www.j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=309
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03-01-2014 , 12:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wampeter
Has Rutter ever lost a jeopardy match to a human?
FWIW I think he finished third behind KJ in the Watson games, not that that really counts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeti
yea awful bet but i thought he got kinda ****ed on the question anyway. that seemed tough for an $800 clue.
I always assumed DDs are basically a fixed difficulty, and not based on their "face value". No?
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03-01-2014 , 12:37 PM
Yeti,

It's as awful as everyone says. Even if he knows Arthur is betting $401, he is throwing away $800 for a tiny tiny chance at $1000 more for second place. If that's his knowledge and reasoning, he should bet $1 less than everything.
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03-01-2014 , 01:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMan42
I always assumed DDs are basically a fixed difficulty, and not based on their "face value". No?
I think they're fairly correlated to the value, but those can be inconsistent themselves.
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03-01-2014 , 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeti
"Far from being randomly distributed, Daily Doubles are heavily concentrated at the bottom of the board. Of the roughly 10,000 such clues logged on J-Archive, 92 percent were in the bottom three (of five) rows."

i'm sure the exact lifetime distribution is somewhere, but can't find it right now. found this though:

"Because the distribution of DDs has been this over the past 5 seasons:

Position 1 (from top of board): 0.1%
P2: 10%
P3: 26%
P4: 36%
P5: 26%"
It's been in the 1st row???
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