Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST) - Page 387

I was kind of curious on this perspective, so here's an article/video about one of the contestants who faced him. Said she was the first game of that taping session so didn't know how good he was, then was sort of terrified/in shock during the game. Also said he took a nap before the recording.

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local...-time-greatest

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04-18-2019 , 08:11 PM

#9654

ntanygd760

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Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 13,673

Nap swag. GOAT

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04-18-2019 , 08:23 PM

#9655

ntanygd760

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Quote:

Originally Posted by revots33

Not sure if this has been posted, looks like a Jeopardy fan is compiling daily stats comparing
Holzhauer with Ken Jennings. Pretty interesting.

https://thejeopardyfan.com/2019/04/j...omparison.html

I didn't expect his numbers to hold up to Ken's like that.

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04-18-2019 , 08:30 PM

#9656

revots33

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Holzhauer/Jennings over 11 games:

Quote:

Daily Doubles Played 26 21
Daily Doubles Correct 24 17
Daily Double %age 92.31% 80.95%
Average Daily Double Wager $9,993 $2,533
Total Net Gain On Daily Doubles $237,024 $31,600
Average Net Gain On Daily Doubles $9,116 $1,505

Those DD differences are pretty amazing

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04-18-2019 , 09:13 PM

#9657

patron

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 3,805

Déjà vu

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04-19-2019 , 12:01 AM

#9658

prahsk87

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 524

My memory's hazy but would it be correct to say that while Jennings was obviously dominant in terms of the buzzer and knowledge, his approach to clue selecting and wagering was fairly traditional/conservative? For example, he'd typically start a category at the lowest price and work his way down, and didn't hunt for daily doubles the way Holzhauer and others do.

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04-19-2019 , 12:07 AM

#9659

beansroast01

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Can someone explain "hunt for daily doubles", are the daily double locations not completely random?

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04-19-2019 , 12:22 AM

#9660

SarcasticRat

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Quote:

Originally Posted by imjosh

Can someone explain "hunt for daily doubles", are the daily double locations not completely random?

I forget the exact percentages, but I believe they are statistically more likely to be in certain spots on the board. They're never (or almost never) in the 400 row, rarely in the 800 row, and I don't think they have two in the same category in DJ. So players who are paying attention can deduce the spots where they're most likely to be.

I don't know if what James does is technically hunting them, since he's just starting at the highest value clues and working back for the most part.

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04-19-2019 , 12:45 AM

#9661

ProfessorBen

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~once a season in the first row, not often in 2nd, most likely in row 3 and 4, i believe more likely in 5th than 2nd, but less than 3/4. he definitely studied the actual data and knows actual %s.

he is definitely hunting them once he has a stack in SJ and all during DJ, hitting them/denying your opponents of them is such a hudge swing

SJ he starts with 1ks to build a stack(and take advantage of being used to the buzzer, knowing what category hes gunna pick) before hunting for them in rows 3 and 4.

DJ he starts with 1200s just to hunt them immediately as everyone already has stacks and you just want to find them/get them off the board

Last edited by ProfessorBen; 04-19-2019 at 12:55 AM.

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04-19-2019 , 06:06 AM

#9662

typesick

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 115

Quote:

Originally Posted by SarcasticRat

Any idea why they never appear in the 400 row? Why aren't the DD's more random?

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04-19-2019 , 06:57 AM

#9663

True North

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$400s are too easy to have DDs for the most part. If you find a DD on the top row, you should snap bet everything except in very rare circumstances.

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04-19-2019 , 06:59 AM

#9664

RichGangi

Laughable false & highly douchey

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 9,546

Quote:

Originally Posted by revots33

Not sure if this has been posted, looks like a Jeopardy fan is compiling daily stats comparing
Holzhauer with Ken Jennings. Pretty interesting.

https://thejeopardyfan.com/2019/04/j...omparison.html

Shoutout to Yeti, I believe he first posted that. Great stuff, been checking it daily.

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04-19-2019 , 07:02 AM

#9665

RichGangi

Laughable false & highly douchey

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 9,546

Quote:

Originally Posted by SarcasticRat

This is great!

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04-19-2019 , 07:12 AM

#9666

danspartan

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,851

I believe their are certain categories that are more or less likely to have a DD.

Something along the lines the gimmick categories (mi”did”le) are less likely and serious categories like European history more likely. Not sure where I read that or what the numbers were.

I haven’t seen any of this week, one superior area for Ken was in the wordplay categories — any sense of how our new hero is doing with these?

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04-19-2019 , 09:15 AM

#9667

master3004

Revisionist Historian

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 56,419

Quote:

Originally Posted by imjosh

Can someone explain "hunt for daily doubles", are the daily double locations not completely random?

I believe at the very least they are never in the top clue.

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04-19-2019 , 09:32 AM

#9668

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,744

Quote:

Originally Posted by riverboatking

ppl still love watching mr. freeze destroy ppl in foot races at baseball games and he hasn't ever even come close to losing.

Lol zero idea what you are talking about

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04-19-2019 , 10:09 AM

#9669

chucksim

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by imjosh

Can someone explain "hunt for daily doubles", are the daily double locations not completely random?

Clearly not completely random.

Someone told me that in the first round, the DD “will never be in the bottom row”. That’s partially key to James strategy of rolling through the bottom, potentially building up $6000 before finding a DD and maximizing his shove amount.

Can anyone confirm or disprove this “never in bottom row in single Jeopardy” statement? Since he told me that, the DD has not been behind a $1000 clue, but it is a very small sample size.

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04-19-2019 , 10:20 AM

#9670

beansroast01

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Found this after some googling

https://news.avclub.com/the-quest-to...ues-1828028620

Also in case you had the same question as me after looking at that,

Quote:

A few Redditors suggested that the low probability on the right side may have to do with the fact that the sixth category is usually a “gimmick” or “punny-type” category, which isn’t suitable for something as important as a Daily Double.

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04-19-2019 , 10:28 AM

#9671

beansroast01

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Based on this the optimal play is to start w/ the $1,000 clues in single jeopardy, and if you have a big enough lead, start with the $1600 clues in double jeopardy, otherwise the $2000 clues are probably better to go for first there. An argument could probably be made that if you are a pro at the buzzer scooping up the $200/$400 clues before going for the DD may be good but I think that's offset by the psychological factor of being able to take a $10k+ lead 5 minutes into the show and leaving nothing but $200/$400 clues for your opponents who have at that point lost all hope

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04-19-2019 , 11:19 AM

#9672

Biesterfield

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is there a reason why Category 2 is also low probability of daily double?

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04-19-2019 , 11:39 AM

#9673

beansroast01

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No idea. Maybe it is the 2nd most likely category for oddball clues? I only really watch Jeopardy when these mega elite record-breaking players are on

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04-19-2019 , 02:39 PM

#9674

Rapid_Fire

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 469

Nine of the ten wins so far have been lock games going into FJ.

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04-19-2019 , 02:54 PM

#9675

SarcasticRat

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Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 9,774

Quote:

Originally Posted by danspartan

I'm a sports nut who snaps off any sports Jeopardy question in a microsecond and have noticed they never seem to have sports DDs. I've also noticed the trend you're talking about. Would be curious if there is any data on that at all.

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