Good point as well. Still think she has to be a little more careful though considering he is a main target of 3 people(austwins) playing hoh this week. Once he knows he's the target he may use anything he's told to save his ass. He has nothing to lose really but she does. As she has Austwins(austin) trust right now.

i was thinking about this from james's perspective after meg goes home, and i feel like a lot of people would call him stupid for targeting vanessa, but i don't actually think it'd be that bad. say meg goes home this week, and say he's smart enough to put up vanessa with julia and successfully gets her out. that leaves

austin and the twins
steve
john
james

in this situation, john and steve are forced to go at the austwins virtually every time, or at least until they get 2/3 of them out

and vice versa, austin and the twins will target john and steve before james. john because they hate him, and steve because he's the biggest mental comp threat

chances are both sides would win an hoh, and that would get down to a f4 of like austin/julia/john/james or something

and i think james would be able to work with austin at the end and would have a decent chance of getting to the final three. once at the final 3, he wins the endurance portion. and if he gets to final two he has a great chance


so i don't think it'd be terrible for him to target vanessa instead of the austwins next week (well really, during the double eviction) if he won hoh

like its obviously risky to go to the final 6 with a solid 3-some, but its not quite as risky if you're their solid #1 (out of the 3 others). its basically what vanessa is trying to do. it gets you to the final 4 or so, and if you can position yourself to replace whoever goes home out of the austwins so that they'd work with you after they lose their numbers, its not terrible

it still relies on a certain amount of success in comps, which isn't ideal, but it gives you a decent chance

obviously if you aren't their #1, like if you're steve or john, then there is no upside whatsoever of having all 3 austwins in the final 6. maybe steve has some delusion that he is their closest ally, but after being a pawn in front of vanessa last week he should realize he's not

also as far as this week goes, i don't think a final 4 with james/meg/john/steve is feasible because right now john and steve are too tied into this final 3 with vanessa. they are happy about that, so they aren't desperate enough to make a big move

which means the only way meg could stay is with vanessa is on board. so they'd have to make a final 5 with james/meg/john/steve

the selling point to vanessa would be that she doesn't have to vote, and the austin + liz couldnt be mad at her if steve/john flipped the vote. besides, they'd need her.

id have to think its better to go to the final 5 with james and meg than the final 6 with the austwins.

this is probably really unlikely, mostly because james and meg won't think to pitch it or know the right way even if they did, but i think its more likely than steve going against vanessa at this point. he wouldn't vote out julia without vanessa's approval. thats a hurdle i doubt james and meg will be able to overcome

if you're steve and john, the only downside of this is that austin and liz would be mad at you. but that isn't a downside at all, because once meg is out theres no one left for the austwins to target anyways. they aren't gonna go after vanessa before you, and its very unlikely they'd go after james before you. so that shouldn't affect their decision. what does affect their decision is pissing off vanessa, which is why she has to be on board

so james and meg need to pitch this final 5 to have a chance IMO

although i still don't think vanessa would be up for it, because she still has F2's with austin and julia and she probably considers herself enemies with james and meg. so j + m would have to convince her that even if they do this and they got to final 5, that they'd target steve and john before her

she probably wouldn't want to go to the final 5 with two pairs

so meh. i don't really think its possible for meg to stay. they'd have to get steve to completely turn on vanessa, and they don't have any information to do that with. so gg meg

Excellent write up, although I'm pretty sure James isn't thinking that deeply LOL. If Meg goes, he HAS to target Vanessa. She's the only one gunning for him. Both times he's been on the block it was Vanessa's HOH week. Jmac coming back from jury actually works in James favor as now Jmac will be a meat shield for him from the Austwins. The Austwins have no choice but to target Jmac before James because they'll always be worried that Jmac will be gunning for them.
James unbelievably lucked himself into a pretty good spot because from what Austin has said, he doesn't want Steve and Vanessa in F6 and will push his agenda to the twins. Also it would be dumb for Steve and Jmac to target James at this point because they'll need him him later on to target the Austwins. Vanessa will keep pushing for it of course but every one can see through it. She'll try to get the Austwins if they win HOH to target James but it would make no sense to them at all. She'll also try and get Steve and Jmac to target James if they win but we already know who they're targeting. So yeah, getting Vanessa out is huge for James.

Something funny I heard on the feeds the other day that had me laughing because it's so true. Julia was complaining to Liz that if they won HOH and told Vanessa that she should go up as a pawn, Vanessa would say "that's not a good idea and here's why........" LOL. They're so on to her BS.

You don't really need to be onto someone game to know its not smart to go up as pawn. Only reason Julia up b/c no one left. I guess from there stand point John should go up.

So at this stage who is in danger to be the evicted at the DE?

If James wins HoH he likely puts up Vanessa and a twin and sends Vanessa home. If Steve or Jmac win one of the Austwin's will be done. If Austwins win it will be James if he doesn't win veto, if James does win veto it will be Jmac going home. Is this correct?

5/6 outcomes being favourable for Vanessa is pretty good for her. This could actually work out decent if Austin and the twins do get James out as Vanessa, John and Steve would then have a 3/5 chance of winning the subsequent HoH.

So I'm been thinking about why Steve was so adamant about voting out Megs and keeping Julia when he was talking to himself in the backyard this weekend. His reasoning is that if he votes Meg out it will make James + Meg team up with Austin + Liz. Doesn't make sense at first but I'm trying to look at it from Steve's perspective and it actually does have merit. He knows that James and Meg are kinda close to Austin and Liz, they hang out a lot and the Austwins have targeted Steve and Jmac before James and Meg. Even though Steve just saved Megs, Steve's lack of social game really hurts him here because James and Meg don't really have a relationship with Steve because they hardly ever talk. Steve also took out Jackie and nominated Megs during his HOH.
Evicting Julia, Steve and Jmac would be public enemy #1 with Austin and Liz and it wouldn't be too hard for Austin to pull in James/Meg. With one of the twins gone, there's no more urgency for James to go after Austin and Llz because now they won't be a trio. I should give Steve some credit here, after looking at it through his perspective it makes sense. You can sense the bonds in the house when you're there 24/7 and his relationship with James/Meg isn't so good. Austin and Liz has a better relationship with them.

Meg most likely, unless Vanessa flips it. After that it depends on who wins HOH.

Almost correct. If Austwins win HOH, Jmac is public enemy #1 and he would go if he doesn't win veto. Vanessa will try to talk them out of it but it won't work. Austin wants Jmac out in the worst way and so do the twins.

This trio of the Austwins staying so late in the game and Steve wanting to keep them is very reminiscent of last year's BBCAN 3.

For the BBCAN watchers, something very similar happened when it came down to final 7 during Britany's coup d'etat week when they evicted Bruno. At that time there was an unbreakable trio of Zach, Ashley, Pilar (a showmance + best friend). Also there were 2 pairs Godfrey + Bruno and Sarah + Britany.

Brittany put up Bruno and Zach with her coup d'etat. The obvious move of course was to evict Zach (the Austin of the season) and breaking up the trio. The audience was shocked when Brittany/Sarah decided to evict Bruno instead because it made no sense. I haven't heard this discussed anywhere even on RHAP where they had no idea why Brittany decided to keep a trio in the game.

I said it was a genius move to keep the trio in the game at the time and here's my reasoning. Had Sarah and Brittany evicted Zach, it would leave 3 pairs of 2 in the house (Sarah+ Brittany, Pilar + Ashleigh, Bruno + Godfrey). Sarah and Brittany knows that Bruno HATES Sarah + Brittany and have called them the masterminds all season. Bruno would've pulled Godfrey to team up with Pilar and Ashleigh because they were less likely to win at final 2, the perfect goats.

By evicting Bruno and keeping Zach/Ashleigh/Pilar together, it forces Godfrey to work with Sarah + Brittany because it would be insane for him to want to team up with an unbreakable trio where Godfrey would be the 4th wheel. This solidifies their final 3 and can team up against Zach/Ashleigh/Pilar.


So I think I'm wrong about Steve about wanting to keep Julia in after thinking about it through his perspective. Thought it was insane at first and he hasn't really articulately explained his reasoning well. James might find himself in the Godfrey role this season. Of course the situation is not exactly the same because of the Vanessa factor but it's close. Keeping all 3 of the Austwins in the game together forces James to have to work with Steve and Jmac because James cannot be the 4th wheel. Evicting Julia, James could very realistically work with Austin + Liz (he likes them more and there's no longer the threat of a trio together)

no, if austwins win they'd want john home way before james

Yes from their standpoint Jmac should go up as a pawn. If they believed Vanessa had total trust in them she wouldn't risk Julia going home. That's why Julia was pissed. Because had the situation been reversed and Julia was HOH and told Vanessa she was the pawn next to Megs, Vanessa would flip out and tried to talk herself out of it even if they assured her they have the votes. Vanessa has no problem with putting Julia in danger but every time Vanessa's name is being brought up as a pawn she blows up.

james and meg have been sitting outside by the hot tub with john and steve for like an hour now. they've been having pleasant conversation with absolutely zero gametalk. its driving me crazy

Yeah, that's why James + Meg can't fully trust Steve because there's so little game talk between them. James and Meg don't even initiate it anymore because they get nothing from Steve and he shuts it down. James and Megs aren't the greatest strategists so I don't think they realize how strong a case they have and should definitely try at least. We need some 2+2ers in the house. The only one we know is a 2+2er is Vanessa for sure. I can almost guarantee Day isn't a 2+2er even with her poker background.

it doesn't matter, meg is the one on the block and is somehow getting uninterrupted alone time with the two swing votes. i cannot believe this opportunity even presented itself, and meg didn't even try to steer it into game talk

she was actually very vaguely talking game with john before steve came out, and then they changed the topic and shut it down when he was there

which makes absolutely no sense since she obviously needs both votes

yeah it's a weird dynamic in the house with Steve and Jmac playing so conservatively. I don't think we've ever seen anyone play this kind of game ever before on BB. It's also extremely boring in the house with nothing to do, how could you go this long without talking game to people?

john kinda reminds me of adam poch from bb13 (the one rachel won). he's just doing what other people want him to do. its so disappointing that even after being evicted unanimously, he still doesn't break out and do his own ****

and even when the group of people who want you gone the most and played the biggest part in evicting you already, and one of their people is on the block this week against the person who was trying to save you, you still won't question that.

like wtf

austin and the twins wanted you out

james and meg wanted to save you

both of these should be clearly evident

its ****ing stupid that james and meg even have to convince john. he should be trying to convince steve

I'm just losing so much respect for jmac over this

Seems like playing the same game as Judd to me. Judd did the same thing, aligning with the same people again after they evicted him in one of the saddest blindsides ever as he was pleading for his life. Hated his game. Came back into the house and did exactly what everyone told him again. Like wtf LOL.

LOL, now that I think about it, his game might be worse than Judd's. At least Judd would talk game. I'm starting to think Jmac is really just a simple person, I have no earthly idea how he made it to be a dentist.

didn't judd help get amanda out? i feel like judd did decently for himself. he made a new separate alliance and got to the final 4 (i think?). so he was only a couple challenges away from the end - with spencer/andy/ginamarie. i think he came back and outlasted both amanda and mccrae. i could be wrong though

He did, but it was all Andy's idea to get them all together to target Amanda + McCrae.

Judd had a chance to change the game on his own. He was already evicted and has to know he was the bottom of that 4 person alliance with Spencer/Ginamarie/Andy. Elissa wanted to work with him as she had nobody. He didn't want to work with her so after Elissa left, Judd was the next to go and that's what happened.

Meg all alone with Steve. She's trying to talk to game with him. Going to tune in for a bit to see if she can get anything going and then go to bed.