But I'm not advocating he do that to OTHER people. I'm advocating he do that to VANESSA.

For sure, I agree with that. You have to be extremely careful about what you tell Vanessa or she will not hesitate to use it against you. I was just making a point about Steve's game (or lack of it) in general.

Better chance of seeing

Julia a have not with John, Meg, James she should never leave them alone. Flirt with Steve and lock up the week.

I am so annoyed that (it appears) Vanessa didn't even entertain turning on Austwins this week. Does anyone who has been watching honestly see her beating anyone at F2 at this point? Looking at the jury, I thought she likely had Shelli's vote but - and Vanessa noted this a couple of hours ago on the feeds - Shelli was clearly putting off hugging her when the jurors returned to the house (and went out of her way to wish only JMac good luck as she left the BY post-return comp). Definitely a good chance that Jackie and Becky helped poison her views on Vanessa in jury over a few cocktails.

But yeah, it's weird, I think the way the house is currently set up she has a good chance of getting to F4-F2 (something I would've never imagined being the case as recently as a week ago), but little-to-no chance of winning at F2 once she gets there. A $50k game at best and I don't think $50k means all that much to her. However, if she had pulled the biggest move this season and re-nommed/evicted Austin, I think she stood to gain a lot in the way of 'jury capital' (and Austin, as a fan of the game, might recognize this after a few weeks in jury and come to respect it come voting).

I know she'd very likely lose the twins votes for good by doing this, but me thinks if she ends up getting to F2 as things sit right now there's a high likelihood she'll have done something that will have risk their votes by that point, anyway (Aside: can you imagine Vanessa casting a tiebreaking vote in the future between, say, Liz/Julia - where Julia is clearly best for her game to stay but Austin wants Liz...that would be glorious).

Anyways, ya. As it sits now I think she has a decent shot to get deep but never wins at F2. Where if she had taken the shot at Austin this week she'd probably get to the end less but actually stand to win when she got there.

EDIT: Austin's playing the best game in the house right now, ya? Who would've ever thought? Made the cardinal sin of getting in a showmance, but he's been very good since the week he was supposed to be backdoored, gotta give credit where it's due.

Vanessa's got a plan for winning over the jury:

I mean Vanessa not really like able so its going to be tough. Its possible she could beat someone like Austin if jury hates him as well. They seem to like him more but if its not by a ton they might reward the better game. I heard Becky/John talk and they acted like they'd vote for Vanessa. Meg/James said they wouldn't but they also think Austin/twins are running Vanessa's game. I think Steve would vote for her. If they come with an open mind and Vanessa admits stuff its possible but if she try's to spin some honesty stuff she's in trouble.

Didn't watch today but from reading the updates it does appear she didn't at least entertain the idea. Quite tilting because she really should at least consider it because she's has one of the most horrible end game I've ever seen. Jason on RHAP said he really believes that it's going to be a bitter jury this year. He knows the house guests better than we do and from what I've seen I believe him. I don't think they are in fact a bitter jury, just bitter against Vanessa. Tbh, if I was in the house I don't think I could vote for Vanessa either, she's just so unlikeable, always blowing up on people and making convoluted reasons why they have to leave.

Was thinking about this today and I honestly don't know who Vanessa sits with at F2 that she could get 5 votes. Even sitting next to Julia would be tough. Julia would have Austin and Liz. All she'll need is 3 more and it wouldn't even be that hard to get if from Becky, Jackie, Megs and James. Vanessa sits next to Meg she wins. Maybe Jmac, but Jmac is really likeable so that's not a guarantee either. Vanessa sits next to James, Austin, Liz it's a wrap she loses.

Jason did seem to hate Austin/twins more and seemed okay with Vanessa on game level. The problem is that's with outside info. If Shelli doesn't vote for Vanessa she's in trouble.

I think Vanessa is definitely entertaining the idea of getting Julia out, she doesn't want to be the one to bring up the idea though. She will mention things like 'if Julia does happen to go home and me this week ...' To John, hoping to instigate a discussion, but these idiots won't bring up the idea to her.

I feel like by Wednesday night, she may be the one instigating jmack and Steve to flip their vot s, sinc James and meg aren't going to do it for her.

Yeah if Julia leaves it will have to come from Vanessa. She'll have to initiate discussion because it's not going to come from Steve/Jmac LOL.

Why would she? Getting Meg out seems best for her game.

It takes real charisma to get to the F2 after being involved in every juror's eviction for them to vote for you. I believe the case where people reward it is when the person is somewhat likable or at least not an ahole (or if she's sitting against someone more hated).

Vanessa has real bad personality traits that maker her really hard to like. The constant victim mentality especially is gonna rub jurors the wrong way so much I really can't see how they would convince themselves to write her name down.

She also has no personal relationships with the people she was not working with (Becky, Meg, James, Jackie) and the people who she backstabbed or is about to backstab are all emotional idiots (maybe with the exception of Steve). It's not like she's playing this amazing game that is gonna get so much respect either. I mean if you get HOH and you evict Meg do you really deserve it?

Getting to the final 2 with the austwins still intact is difficult, and if she can swing it right, she can blame James and Meg for getting them to flip

Yes she views the game like chess. She putting herself in a great spot.

I disagree. I think it's an ok 2-week plan but she's gonna end up in a spot where she'll have to win a competitions or get evicted until the end.

That's debatable. Evicting Megs leaves all 3 Austwins in the game where she'll have a hard time getting enough votes at F2 against them. Getting Julia out now may not be optimal right now for her game but it would do a lot for her endgame where Megs and James wouldn't be so blinded by their hate for her that she 'might' get their vote if she makes it to F2. Seeing Vanessa working with Meg and James may look good to Jackie and Becky and sway them too. That's why she should at least entertain the idea. As of now James, Meg, Jackie would rather poke their eyes out than vote for Vanessa.

She also has to hope James don't win HOH this week because she'll 100% leave. He'll put her up next to Liz. All James need is 2 votes for Vanessa to go. Liz will have Julia + Austin and that's all he needs because he'll be the tiebreaker and will send Vanessa packing. There will be no deals that she can make to him that will get her out of it.

Meg is a vote and Vanessa has zero working relationship with either James or Meg. Of course Vanessa will need win soon but if James doesn't win HOH I think she buys 2-3 rounds. Meg/James were just in a alliance with Austin/Twins last week. If Julia leaves and Austin/Liz/Meg/James win HOH I don't expect them to target each other. Meg/James will def target Vanessa. Steve/John won't target them.

Yeah, Vanessa will have to hope every single week that she can convince people to put up James and evict him. Everyone will see through her agenda and won't necessarily put up James because they know James isn't gunning for them and will put up Vanessa the first chance he gets. That's on top of the house plotting against her and getting her out too. Austin has said he does not want Vanessa at F6 because she'll be real good at comps and will be tough to get out. I could see a scenario where Vanessa is a 'pawn' up next to Jmac and they would vote her out.

The % of that seems really small. Def possible but I'd be willing to risk it.

If Vanessa makes a deal with James/Meg, and saves Meg they won't necessarily go after Vanessa. James and Meg already told her they were gunning for the Austwins (true, until Vanessa put them both up and went back on her word). James and Meg even promised to throw the next HOH, that wouldn't be bad for her either. By not making a deal with them she has to pray James don't win HOH this week.

Come on you can't buy this stuff. They just had segment over Vanessa's deal with James. They are def targeting her.

It's not as small as you might think. There's a reason why in BB the person you DON'T want to win HOH usually wins it and that's on top of production manipulation.

1. They want it more badly than anyone else, especially when they feel the house is against them and they're going next

2. The others know James agenda and may even throw it to him. For example imagine if it was Jmac and James left in the comp. Jmac knows he's 100% safe with James because he knows James' agenda to get Vanessa out. So someone like Steve and Jmac might just say to themselves, ok I'll let James win so I don't win too many comps and be seen as a threat. Bonus will be that they can play in the next HOH.

James and Meg's original plan this week was to go after the Austwins had they won HOH this week. They told that to each other multiple times alone together. The plan changed when Vanessa targeted them and left them no choice.

B/c they were a trio. Once Julia gone sure they are a threat but targeting Vanessa seems better at that point for them.