Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleAB
If you were in the house, would keeping the Saboteur around til week 5 be the +ev play?
Ignoring the face that you could NEVER broach the subject b/c it would basically instantly vote you out. You'd imagine that the only downside would be the Sab winning an HOH and randomly putting you up, but the odds of that have got to be pretty low. The stuff that he/she does around the house is pretty tame, and yeah it would suck to get him/her on your team in a have/have not comp, but the odds on winning one of those are still going to be 50/50 pretty much no matter what the composition of the teams is (even with the Sab gone, it's still pretty much a random shot to get good/bad players on your side).
The #1 goal in BB has always been to keep the people that have no shot of winning around for as long as possible, and the Sab has literally 0% shot of winning. I'd say the biggest factor would be the chance that if the Sab sticks around til week 5, that he/she would be replaced with someone whose been voted out. In that case, I think it's super possible to get to week 4/5 and have a real good idea of who the Sab is, and if a majority of the people already voted out would come back and be on your side, it would be a good play to keep him around. Not to mention the fact that people who have gotten to come back into the house last about 2 eps and are gone and have (I think) never gone on to win (Amy in S3, James in S9, and technically Jessie in S11).
It just seems like it would be a smart play. If I were in the house, I wouldn't care if someone won 50k if it means I was that much closer to winning 500k.
also Kaysar in S6. Before the season started I predicted that this would be another season that an evicted houseguest comes back, as they seem to do it every third season. With the sab twist it seems highly likely that after week 5 the sab will be taken out and someone previously evicted will come back.
There was an episode of "The Office" where they were playing a murder mystery game and Dwight said "the killer is never the person you most suspect and never the person you least suspect, so I know the killer to be the person i middle-most suspect." It seems way too obvious to be Andrew or Kathy, and way too obvious to not be someone like Lane or Hayden, which is why I think the saboteur is Matt.
He's in good with everyone afaik and he seems pretty nonthreatening. Also he's smart and fairly inconspicuous. Most importantly, he does EXACTLY what Eric did in bb8 when he was doing something America's Player-related with other houseguests. He has such a nervous and defensive laugh after some comments, and the way he talks about the saboteur in the diary room makes him my top suspect. I guess the big reveal is during the first eviction show on Thursday and I'm pretty excited to find out who it is.