a hand i saw online
PLO $5/10/25
Hero (HJ - 7k) opens AAQQss to 125
Sb (10k) + UTG2 (1.5k) calls.

FLOP: KcJs6s
Hero bet 150, sb raise 800, utg2 folds, hero calls

TURN: 7d
Sb bets 2000, Hero calls

RIVER: Qd
Villain checks.
What is the best play here by your opinion?




I mean lets talk about it

villian mostly rep KK\KJJ\mostly some 2pair combos+ some fd's is it proffitble to fire the river here with that much SDV against he's range + and the AA blockers?

You seem to consider bluffing - that's not even close to an option. The question is whether to value bet. SB vpip would be helpful. Calling ranges (plus flop line) has a lot of KK so I make a tight check back. If he's very loose pre I think a value bet is in order.

I think this is check back on the river.

You've got showdown value against KJ and JJ and missed wrap + spades (he could've had something like Q10xx with spades). Not sure you can get KK or 10-9 to fold here even if you lead for pot all-in for $4K.

I don't play stakes this high so I'm not sure if players will check-call with JJ on that river (KJ feels like a fold to a bet, so you really are only getting value from one hand and possibly bluffing KK/10-9 I'm just doubtful those fold with the pot this inflated).

Possibly you could lead weak for like $2K and fold to a raise (looking to exploit KJ/JJ if you know he'll call light on boards like this), but really need to know your opponent. Also you only have $4K left and pot is already at $6K so not sure with the SPR if this is even a value-bet spot, seems like you have to check or shove.

Pretty clear check. Obviously bluff AAQ:ss

Which wrap has missed?
i kinda agree with what said - I thing its really hard to get value from JJ here and my main discussion here is around if there's any value here with our hand\ if its worth to try bluff KK out of the pot (i think hero have some AT in his range)
do you think 1\5pot at river to make JJ call and puke is +EV ? or bcz KK never fold and KJ probebly wont call so mabye not?

intresting spot anyway



because its not my hand i dont have any informetion about the player

Villain is repping sets, top 2 and fd, maybe wrap and flush draw.

On the river, we beat more than 50% of their value hands, I would shove for thin value. Why the hell have you been calling if not shoving this river.
Also, your range includes missed fd.

Pretty cool theory spot, since villain can range hero for axxx and asxxx hands pretty often and should also check the river at a high frequency. I dont think hero needs to turn his hand into a bluff, but since we block so many combos of atxx it should be +ev and villain can certainly call worse. Checkback is more of the exploitative line imo if villain always xc kk and doesnt jam straights enough.

idk we're not turning anything into bluff, villain will call T9 100% of the time and we block all of them, pretty clear vb to me we will get enough action by other hands to offset the times he has KK

1) How frequent would V raise KK PF? Assuming not very often with JJ OOP ..
2) How frequent would Hero be expected to re-pot Flop or Turn with draw v set and just GII with good SPR?

3) We need to be good here 30% of the time against calls ... KK, JJ, straight ... seems a bit ambitious. I assume V had Ks at least
4) How often do we get better to fold ... not often? Our story is draw that River helped, but in my Player pool they are more stubborn on the River. They may view the same 30% EV ratio as 'OK' with KK/low-straight. I think we needed to be deeper to make this work.

5) How often do we get worse to call .. JJ/2pr?
6) How much wider is our HJ opening range than EP range .. plus add the c/c on two streets.

I'm not so sure we get worse to call enough to offset the times we are behind. Assuming that online is tighter than live, so that puts me more towards just checking back and getting a look at his holding. GL

PS .. How do we block T9 with AAQQ?

The river is really good for your range. It all boils down to whether SB is capable of folding KK or JJ here. That's for you to figure out, and for us to not be able to know.