doesn't your hand alone (the two tens especially) make it more likely he has aces rather than a rundown?

Pretty sure the one ace in my hand is a bigger factor in reducing the probability of aces combo-wise then the two tens are.

Why does a player who 3-bets 10% have to be better balanced than someone 3-betting 8 or 5%??

also there's no reason he can't be bet/folding some AA combos on this flop. still pretty marginal though, I think.


would you ever just float him here?

You shouldnt forget that people might adjust to you, i personally only have like 3-5% 3bet, but i sometimes 3bet rather loose against people who steal very light.

and even if i just 3bet "normal" i try to balance a little by not 3betting rainbow aces and adding some single or double suited rundowns and sometimes strong paired hands like QQJT and some KKxxds.

If they 3bet AA only and you're in position, you call with Any4.

This is absolutely wrong. Obviously we'd both agree that calling A222 would be pretty terrible. That is extreme but there is an inflection point somewhere. With deeper stacks you're basically right but with 100bb stacks calling with certain awful hands is just lighting money on fire

I said to look more at player tendencies than percentages. His range obv isn't just AA and it's probably going to be much wider against someone as loose as you. But if he is a nitty reg he probably isn't getting too out of line 3 betting out of position and he could easily have an overpair here or some mid wrap type hand that has a pair/2pair plus a draw.

OK, so add some wraps that I'm still ahead of with my QTT blocking a lot of outs, add some two pair hands that I'm in better shape against than AA, and my equity's definitely going to be over 35%. Then I only need to get a fold about 1/3 of the time to breakeven. Considering that she's going to be C-betting this board pretty much all the time, I either have to be reading a lot into the bet-sizing on the flop or making AA/KK a very large portion of her range to fold. I'm not saying it's a mistake to make AA/KK a large portion of her range, part of me obviously thinks it is which is why I made the thread, but there's definitely a 3-bet% where it becomes good to get in on this flop. Like with an 11% 3-bettor I don't even question it and I'm pretty sure 10% is good too. Also, if I can't get in on a low flop where I pick up extra outs in both a GS and a BDFD, I don't think it can possibly be profitable to play this hand preflop.

And yeah, the reg's Annette. I was actually more interested in the abstract problem of what to do with different 3-bet% numbers than the specifics of what Annette's range is here so I was trying to avoid saying her name, but no one's been giving me any percentages of where they think the breakeven point for this to be a good play is anyway.

Pretty much my thoughts. To suggest someone has any type of hand X% of time given a 3-bet % of Y requires some additional information... and it doesn't come from the HUD : )

That said there is a lot we can be learning from this stat that hasn't been explored yet so I like the thread for sure.

Shyeah, been preaching this for years.. finally some smart people are putting together the stats tools to prove it.

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Also looking back Iggy's original post suggests that 3-bet% oop is lower for the average bear.. for better worse I can think of many players this isn't the case for.

I think someone already mentioned this but it really matters what kinds of hands he's 3betting oop. You can't figure this out by looking at the hud, you just have to take notes. It might be spewy to get it in against one 7% 3bettor who 3bets all of his aaxx and kkxx, but fine against a different 6% bettor who only 3bet premium aaxx and kkxx +rundowns oop.
Obviously it's fine to get it in vs. any 10% 3bettor and possibly 9% 3bettor.

This is a good point that a lot of us have been skirting around, but I hadn't thought of it in precisely this manner. Namely, when you get to midstakes PLO you can tell a lot more about a frequent 3-bettor (>10%) than you can about a modest 3-bettor (4-6%). Interestingly enough, in my database for 2/4 and 3/6 6max PLO, the average 3-bet % is 5.2%

I dont use HEM. how is this 3-bet % calculated exactly? Is it the % of times the person have 3-bet of the times he was able to do it or some other way?

spontaneous I think the % has to be very low and preferable with some other read to assume its almost always aces when he 3-bets OOP.

Don't people only have AA 2.5% of the time? If they 3 bet 7.5% they have AA like 1 out of 3 times. Obviously u can adjust it based on prior action and such. Additionally if u have an ace they are less likely to have AA.

Most players don't 3bet all their aces oop.

Exactly, I believe that my 3bet % from blinds is approx 5%, but I'd only 3bet good aces from the blinds, so if im 3betting the top 50% of my AAxx hands, when I 3bet from blinds I'd have AAxx ~ 25% of the time (1.25%/5%). The rest of the time I'd have good double-suited hands / rundowns and hands that flop well etc.

Roughly speaking this is how I deal with it. There are some pretty dirty assumptions but it's where I start.

5% means probably AAxx and KKxx, with most players subbing a good chunk of KKxx and some AAxx for near perfect rundowns and some AKJBss/ds type hand.

Still, it should be pretty close to 50% AAxx. If I have an A in my hand, in reality I already eliminated many of his AAxx combos and we're really looking at something like 0.8% out of 3.3% PF 3bet. If I have a K but no A, it's probably something like 2.5% out of something like 4% (since we eliminate many of the good KK combos and AKJB).

I realize it's very very rough and adjustments need to be made but it's where I start the analysis.

This is pretty much why a 3 bet in the 8~11% range is probably good since villain will run into AA/(good)KK just enough for them to think twice about 4 betting lower end KKxx or AKBB/AQBB or even 7654ss (I know at least two regular posters that do this).

To inflate that number some more without becoming highly exploitable you'll be looking at a lot of strange raise bet sizes.

PS: I am not saying 8~11% is a number you should AIM for. I am just saying once you identify and key in on all the hands you can 3 bet profitably vs. a decent reg you'll probably end up settling in that range. If you don't know what hands you can 3 bet profitably, you'll just end up donating money. Cue theme song for some 200/400 regs here.

PS2: I didn't read any other reply. Baseball season is ramping toward playoffs and fantasy football drafts are starting. I am busy.

still want to know. anyone?

In my DB i have these numbers

3bet 3.9%-6.3%: 79% of these regs are winners over a sample of >2k hands.

3bet 7.9%-11.5%: 46% of these regs are winners over a sample of >2k hands.
(Probably dont mean anything though)

If you 3-bet 3.9% OOP and the aces you 3-bet are AAT4ss+ (ss to the ace), then aces are about 33% of your range. If you also 3bet KKT8ss+, then about 54% of your range is AA/KK.
(These are rough estimates from PPT)

just had a quick tun through the thread.
Given the stack sizes and as the villain is oop, I would assume (as default) he 3 bets a very small range of premium AA/KK type hands. The rest of his 3bet % is going to be made up of any type of rundown/mid pair type hands that he would rather "rep" AA/KK on some high boards to win a small pot and also "rep" AA/KK on some low boards that he has smashed and win a big pot.

Someone who 3bets ~5% is not going to do it with AA59ss, deep, oop. I'd give him credit for knowing that you are expecting him to show up w/AA in this spot and then minraise his cbets on A high boards.

Relying too much on stats is a bad habit when position and stack size show far more valuable information in certain circumstances imo. As for the hand I like a float.

How many times we re-raise preflop / Times when a re-raise was possible