BTN is a common opponent; plays a lot of hands but also has a limping range (making his preflop raises stronger). His 4 bets pre almost always mean AA. Not sure what he'd do with dry AA on this texture.

Stacks are 400, game is 2/5.

Hero holds KQJ9 in SB

Action:

BTN raises to 17, Hero raises to 56, BB fold, BTN raises to 173, hero calls.

Flop (351): K64

Hero...check folds? Check calls off? Shoves 227?

You shove with whatever timing makes him think you have a flush.

board: Ks6s4s
Hand Equity Wins Ties
KcQhJc9h 28.14% 1,170,638 5,184
AA 71.86% 2,993,878 5,184

You shove the flop and if he folds greater than 0% you've made a +ev play

Variance gonna variance at the great game of PLO

There is some merit to protecting ranges in a spot like this against a reg you are battling thousands of hands with but if it is live then it shouldn't be that much of a factor.

So rethinking this spot, I actually agree with you guys that from an equity perspective, it's clear that shoving is dominant to check calling.

So I think this is a trivial shove (since this hand v his range is about BE to GII), so if he folds ever, it's hugely +EV.

Spoiler:

I think this spot goes to show you why PPT should be one of your best friends when playing the great game of PLO no matter what skill level you are it

It instantly allows you to go from unsure on what is +EV to realizing exactly what your EV is and what factors make it + or -. (Shove + 0% folding = BE || Shove + 10% folding = +EV.) Deciding between shove > check/call for other factors is another challenge on its own

I've probably spent a few months/year amount of time playing with it in my life. It becomes more challenging when your ability to identify ranges isn't as easy but that is what makes it fun.

You did bring up something I've believed in for a long time and applied in my play, tilt equity, self inflicted tilt equity, suicide equity, wanting to die equity, not this ****ing bull**** again equity, how can i never beat this guy equity, just to name a few

I've always factored that in on top of the PPT equity

Yup. And since it's clear that we've no read that villain won't shove dry AA on this board, it clearly becomes better to put it in ourselves.

If we develop reads that he only shoves selectively, we can start thinking check fold. But I don't think I've enough evidence to decide that, so shoving is the play. If I jam my flushes and my KXYZ type hands like this, I'd also have to assume it's still unprofitable in a vacuum for him to call with dry aces, adding more merit to this play.