Party Poker $600.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $1634.40
BB: $997.95
UTG: $1855.05
Hero (MP): $1063.00
CO: $1291.80
BTN: $3290.25

Pre Flop: ($9.00) Hero is MP with Q 9 K T
1 fold, Hero raises to $27, 2 folds, SB calls $24, 1 fold

Flop: ($60.00) 2 K 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $66.00, SB calls $66

Turn: ($192.00) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $198.00, SB raises to $774


Villain is playing 43/23/2.3. What do we do against this C/R?

Either push or fold.

Set of 22's, set of 77's is what you are scared of.

I guess I'll push against this guy - hit a K, Q, or a J.

Is your betsizing always pot? I prefer smaller but if you are always potting it than i guess its fine. I dont mind a check back on flop, since we dont want to get c/r'd and we have a lot of good turns; if villain is just loose passive then I dont mind a bet though.

I think we need more read on villain to know what to do to his turn c/r. Is he the type to flat 22 or 77 here? I dont see much point in it; its not like we can have any wraps that he is just flipping vs on this mostly uncoordinated board.

I think I just jam turn and hope to see Q high FD with possibly a str8 draw too. or a hand like Ah Jh Tc 8c. Although being this deep its fairly gross.

I think it comes down to my original point; I dont like betting pot on flop and turn; i think you are overplaying your hand.

I don't have a ton of hands on villain. Pretty much the only knowledge I have on how he's likely to play a set is what's in his HUD stats. I did, just from the AF think he was unlikely to C/R this deep without a big made hand which made me OK with C-betting the flop although I'd definitely check it back 100bb deep against an aggressive player.

And yes, it's my standard to bet pot whenever there's a FD out, but no board pair and no made straight or flush possible unless the stacks are quite short. I don't think that's really exploitable at all. On the turn, I think it's a must bet, since we're way ahead of his range (prior to C/Ring) and will often be up against a one pair + FD type hand that has very close to the right odds to call even against a PSB.

The only decision I'm really not confident on is whether to shove or fold against his raise. I think he has {set, KQ} enough to make it a fold without the gutshot, but he really doesn't have to show up with other hands often at all when I've got the extra 10% equity when I'm beat.

I wasn't implying that potting it is exploitable, more so that it might not be optimal. Sure you are extracting more from PR+FDs and similar draws but, I think you fold out a lot of other hands that you want value from and it also bloats the pot to the point where you are now at committal decision 200bb deep with 2pair. I just think you can widen his calling range and control pot size better by betting less on turn and flop.

As played its really close with no solid read and I think I would just stick it in since I dont think he has 22 and 77 all that often from the c/c . And as you mentioned you have the GS, and yeah I agree its so close that without the GS I might fold.

I'd fold. Not many combos he can show up with that aren't sets once he flats a k72 heart heart board except a wrap and a flush draw.

can't he have the same hand?

Yeah but that's the bottom of his value raising range and calling hoping for a chop here is optimistic...

im pretty comfortable folding here. based on your actions/betsizing i dont think he expects you to fold a high % of the time. Unless you have some read to indicate significant spasticity levels his range is pretty exclusively KK, 77, KQ (probably with some other draw better than yours), or some combo containing the nfd.

Easy fold until you have a strong read.

Well, looks like I'm not getting a ton of help here in terms of detailed analysis so I guess I'll just go through it myself. I think after you discount 22 heavily due to preflop, discount 77 somewhat, discount KQ a little bit less than 77 but still somewhat compared to KK, and add in some weird AQQhh type combos, there are approximately the same number of sets as KQ hands combination-wise.

In addition, I'd say we have to on average set aside ~10% of his range for other hands such as AQ7x with hearts, AKJThh, KJT9hh, etc. Against this part of his range, I'd say we have approximately 60% equity as the times he has a dominated two pair with his hand give us ~75% equity and we're usually really close to 50% against a big draw.

So really, the only question left is how often he'd play a set this way compared to top two. Really, I think the line makes a lot more sense for top two, especially with a redraw, but he's passive enough that he's probably flatting it at least part of the time. Altogether, I think he plays KQ this way between 1.5x and 2x as often as he plays a set like this.

Since most of the KQx hands he gets to the turn with have a redraw, and our redraw is very weak, I'll give us 48% against those and 8% against the sets with the possibility of heart outs being dirty. If we make it 1.5x, our overall equity is (.54*.48 + .36*.08 + .1*.6) = (.2592+.0288+.06) = (.348). Making it 2x, our overall equity is (.6*.48 + .3*.08 + .1 * .6) = (.288+.024+.06) = (.372)

With it being $772 to get all-in into what will be a $2129 pot after rake, we need 36.3% equity to call. So basically, it's close enough that it's almost neutral EV either way and is nearly impossible to determine the correct play. I guess after the fact, calling is probably better to reduce variance, but since it's impossible to make calculations this exact in the heat of the moment, I think it's better to err on the side of caution, avoid making the big mistake, and get it in.

Maybe it's a leak in my game but if he's got us beat here I consider it a cooler.

how are you playing on party when your from USA? as for the hand I'd probably shove but since aba said fold i'll have to think about it.

I'm not sure how much I'd discount sets. I could see him playing a lower set exactly this way waiting for a safe turn card to get the money in

i think we need to be betting this turn smaller unless we know villain is a super station and passive or we are inducing villain to shove instead of call with big heart and straight draws.

i really cant think of anyone without history who would c/r this turn with K7xx or anything worse than top 2.

i'm not too familiar with HUD stats but I assume villain is passive enough and loose pre (so these big pot sized bets are good) that we can bet/fold this turn knowing the numbers are a close fold.

Your image is important. If youve been playing super aggro, it makes people do crazy things.

I lean slightly to a shove.

The hell with detailed analysis.

Folding these hands here are -ev. Why take this lil 2 bill hit here? It's not like a limped pot that you can fold and forget about -- you have a strong hand here!!! Stop being a sissy -- put it in!

You have outs if its a cooler.

id go all in!

I think OP is a great analyst and its an important skill.

But in a situation like this I put my decision into gut feeling, player tendencies and timing tells. Villian has a big stack so you must have a pretty good idea of how he plays.

Villian is playing somewhat fresh with those stats, calling and raising alot. I think a playertype like that will get it in on any flop with a set. In that spot, with villians stats, he would probaly get it in with any bad two pair combo + fd or 2 pair + straight draw.

Im not excluding a set of Q´s but in that spot against that villian I would probaly get it in. But again its player dependant and in a spot like that I would have to sit at the table to make a clear decision.

Dion

fyp.

this in a vacuum.


Q: do you play top set the same?

Id bet smaller on the turn. But maybe those pot sized bets make ppl spazz out and do dumb stuff. Any info on the sb would help.

Since you've determined its close to neutral EV, Id consider other metagame factors.

How often would you two barrel a board like this?

If you would do it a lot, Id stick it in here , just to show you are two barreling for value light as well and wont be pushed around.

Helps you steal some pots in the future..
And you get some information on your player.

Question is.. Is the variance worth the image?

thats up to you to decide..

I'm not playing on Party. For some reason, PokerStars hands always show up as PartyPoker in the 2+2 converter.


The thing is that I'm not discounting them all that much. I'm just saying that I think he raises this flop a lot of the time with a set whereas I think he's going to peel the flop a ton of the time with his KQxx combos to the point that he plays KQxx this way more than he plays a flopped set in the same fashion. Also, bottom set (the hand he's most likely to wait for a safe turn with) comes around extremely rarely due to preflop.


1) I'm really not worried about getting C/Red at all. I think we're up against pair + FD a ton where we don't really care whether he shoves or calls and if he peels the flop with two pair, I can't really see him folding what's pretty much a blank turn either. I think he calls the turn with something we're ahead of way, way more often than he C/Rs anything.

2) I gave two ranges for the C/R neither of which contain K7xx (unless it's KQ7x), and we're still ahead of one and behind the other.


I do play very aggro, but I've only got ~75 hands on villain in the last 3 months (the length of my current database) so I really doubt he has much of an idea of how I'm playing.

I'd ship

Hm I would never think about folding here but im a spewmonkey and could see people value shoving worse here against me.. Do you guys really fold this? We even have a gutshot! ;-)

I usually ship in this spot and I usually run into a set....I'd fold