5-5 PLO, effective stacks about $3500.
5-6 limpers to me and i make it 40 to go on the button with AcJcJsTs, 6 calls including BB. I just got moved to the table so no reads.
Flop:
Kc8s6c - BB pots it, UTG calls, i call closing the action.
Turn:
Kc8s6cQd - BB pots, UTG calls. Is calling our only option? I can't quantitate probability of UTG folding for two shoves. Does he ever fold after calling off ~ $1200 on flop\turn. Not sure if this changes anything, but we are allowed to run it multiple times HU.

don't see how this is anything other than a call

Well we should easily have 40-45% equity three way so raising should generate at least $600-$650 in EV. OTOH we will decrease our odds from 3:1 to about 2.3:1, so our edge per $ will be lower, but still positive and in a much larger pot. If we raise we do allow our opponents to avoid the chance of putting in 2k on the river drawing dead, which is not great.

The thing is almost all of the time one of the players on the turn is drawing very slim. If we raise we tax that player to the max, whereas if we call often they will get away with losing "only $1200".

And there is the long shot chance that UTG folds his two pair + gutty or whatever and we have the best hand against BB who is pushing a combo draw.

You’re likely up against a set and a wrap. You’re not in such great shape if one of the villains has a QcXc to go with the range above. The best of the bad choices is a call imo, and I hate playing call bet poker.


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Even at the worst he's getting 30% equity and there are two others in with him, so he's got equity to call and/or raise (though even if he can knock JTxx out [say, JT97] his equity only goes up to 37% {putting in 3180 to win the 1120 in pot prior to flop along with 1120 from UTG as he call/fold turn and 3180 from BB gets you to 37% on your money}).

And that's at the worst (or at least conceivable worst -- I don't see anyone else have AJT in their hand after the flop action and the cards hero holds.

So it looks like a call is best here.

I get that. The issue I have is I don’t like folding this hand and I think raising here is spewy, as the Q doesn’t change anything and isn’t making any set fold and makes wraps feel that it strengthened their hand, ie if they have QcTcJ9 or Qc with 69T with another club. So fold equity is pretty close to zero. Which leaves calling the best of the bad options. I hate calling to hit but that’s what I would do


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Seems like a call is far and above the best option.

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i'd mostly call but occasionally pile (would sometimes take one off with kk)
but if you do pile make sure they know you're going once.running twice just massively increases the chances you get called.

You have 19 outs. For various reasons you need to call here. Call>>raise>>>>>>>>fold

You have no fold equity IMO as BB led pot into 6 players on K86 and most likely has a set or two pair + straight/flush draw. I am assuming that if he had a pure combo draw like 5789 flush he would check raise.

Pot the river if you get there and try to make it look like a bluff on a straightening card or a small flush if a club comes.

If you had even a trace of fold equity I would pot it given the 2.2k dead money and your 38% nut equity.

I’m sure you know this already but for others reading This only matters if we assume we have FE to affect the EV. If there is zero fold equity ( which I think is the case) running it once or twice etc won’t matter


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of course
most of the time and against most players i just call
but there are players i shove against who will fold everything but top set

I disagree, as the expectation is not the be all and end all of wagers, important though it may be. Running it twice reduces variance, and variance is a pretty important factor in choosing which wagers you make. For example, there could be a bet with a positive expectation of +$10,000, but if the variance was high and too high a % of your bankroll would have to be wagered then you should abstain from making this bet. OTOH if there was no variance and u just made an easy 10k every time then u could bet your entire bankroll without any fear. So a situation could certainly exist where you would be able to stack off if you were running it twice but not if you were only running it once.

I understand what you are trying to convey but your explanation is a little bit of fish talk. Even though running it one time or twice manipulates variance, the fact that the EV doesn’t change shouldn’t change your mind on the decision of calling or folding or shoving. The $$ value is irrelevant. If you aren’t rolled for the game, you end up making many more mistakes. You have to make sound mathematical decisions in these spots and go with it. Now, if you have a 3% equity edge, I can see folding to find a more comfortable spot to gii, if there are bankroll issues. <— I don’t think this is right but I can understand why someone would do this.


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Well the question is what % of your bankroll would you be willing to get it in with a 3% edge. And there is a very clear answer, which is 3% or less. But if you could run it 1000 times then you should be willing to bet more than 3% of your bankroll on a 3% edge. Expectation is important, but there are other considerations as well.

I can’t answer that as I don’t put my bankroll on the table. If you are, then psychologically you are apt to make mistakes, whereas if your bankroll isn’t at stake, then your decisions become clearer based on the EV of your play. You don’t make money in PLO waiting only for nutted hands to make your play. You make money in these nuanced situations where you may not feel it is “profitable enough” to risk chips, but mathematically it is.


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