Villiain is a very tight, winning player(approx 60 years old and long time PLO player). In fact, in the 10 times I've played with him, I've never seen him lose and have only seen him show down winners on the river at showdown.

Another player that is good on a different day said under his breath "nuts" when he bet the river on a scary board as he was betting and got called by a set. He had the 2nd nut straight(turn was checked through and he was button and it checked to him again on river so he value bet). I also don't remember him raising much preflop. Doesn't play a lot of hands, but typically calls and sees a flop rather than raise.

On to the hand - Villain is down $1k or so on the day and has approx. $2,200. He is in BB and makes it $30 after a bunch of limpers. Hero called on button(I have him covered with over $3K) with 4469 double suited(no hearts). Don't need commentary on preflop. I will try and see a multi-way cheap flop on the button with most hands in these games.

7 handed to flop of 347. Villain pots it($210) and I call with a set of 44's and gutter. Turn is the 5 and villain pots it($630). I now have 2nd nut straight(only 68 beats me), 3rd set(444) with no in my hand, and could also catch a non-heart 8 for a higher straight. Call, fold or raise?

I know you didn't ask, but pre flop is very bad. Please fold pre. You're super multi-way with a hand that is basically never going to make the nuts, and you're up against a raiser who you think is only putting money in with the nuts. You've turned basically as good as you possibly can with this hand, and still don't know what to do.

You have a quad draw. Call.

On the turn decision, this is just so read-dependent. It's probably just a shove. How much 86 does tight V have in his opening range? Some but probably not a ton. How many hands with 86 in them does V pot flop with? Again some but probably not a ton. Something like AA86 with nut hearts would make sense, and even there you have outs. Gues 5678 makes sense too. Would need a very strong and very specific read to ever fold here.

Don't want to say results/what happened yet but I will say MIB you are on the right page with my thinking/ranging of what he could have. Knew based on his prior play that there was no way he was straight bluffing/didn't have a very good hand with some good equity.

Put him on:

AAxx with nut hearts
AA56 with nut hearts
AA58 or AA68 with nut hearts
AA77, AA33 or AA55(possibly with hearts)
Discounted the possibility of 5678 as I didn't really think he would raise that from the blind when he could check his option.

Also thought if he had something like AKQJ or AAKQ with hearts he would have checked turn as that would be a pretty scary card for his hand and if he was going to play it he could check/call rather than bet and have me possibly raise him.

Shove

Meh. Call or shove or fold. Problem with shoving is he is getting the right price to call with the bottom of his range. On the fly math, I think a turn shove gives villain close to 3:1.

Do you have 25% equity here against AhAxXh? I don’t know. This is a tough spot because I don’t think an older villain is just potting flop and turn here without the goods I think you are up against hearts and a better set, straight, or top two
Maybe he can do this with AA hearts and a wheel? If so then ok.
I think I would just call here but can be convinced otherwise.


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Vilain with same straight and hearts is unlikely to be an equity favorite.. for instance he is likely to have 6-7 clean outs, less than hero's chance to boat

Villain calling hero off with the bottom of his range is good news for hero as he has strong equity advantage

You realize H has the 7-high straight right? We're way ahead of AhAxxh, unless they also have 86 or the same straight. We have more than 25% equity against the nuts given the boat draw and higher set draw. Hard to come up with hands that we don't have 25% equity against.

Yeah, something like 8776hh has us totally crushed, but otherwise we are more or less fine.

The easy way is to just shove it in, Villain is pretty much committed to call it off anyway and he has combos we are good against that - and if he has 86, we have plenty of outs. Problem with calling is that we will be playing a guessing game on the river unless we hit a non-heart 8, and Villain can get us to fold better on certain rivers.

So yeah, I probably just pile it in, it is only like 1k more on top of his 600 bet if I count correctly.

I did jam and he snapped. He asked if I had a redraw(thinking we had the same hand) and I said yeah. The river was another 5 and I won the pot. He had A568 with nut spades. Was pretty surprised he had raised with that out of BB so I had misclassified his raising range I guess. Total cooler for him as he got the dream flop and turn. Thought I played it right but wanted other opinions. Was nice pot and turned into very nice day but I hate getting my money in bad.

I assume you mean you've never seen him show down a loser on a <contested> river. In 10 sessions, I find that very hard to believe; he could not possibly be laying down every hand except the nuts to a river bet. If that were true, then in position you would effectively have all the possible draws he doesn't have.

That, and his surprise hand on the showdown means there is something seriously wrong with how you pegged him.

He's not betting his entire opening range on the flop and turn, so you are asking the wrong questions. The most relevant data point we have for defining his range is his turn bet, not his preflop raise. How many hands without 86 does V pot the turn with? I would guess not too many and most of the hands where he does not have 86 are ones where he has a non-nut straight plus a set or flush draw. (I probably play like V here and I can have a hand like AA66 with hearts here.)

If he is a good player who understands his table image, he should be raising with non-AA hands (and maybe not raising with some AA hands) because he knows it is a bad situation to be playing practically face-up OOP.

Let's go back to the flop for a moment. What hands is he leading out with? We are talking about a tight player in a seven-way pot. His range is much more narrow than if the flop is three-way. I actually don't think he leads AAxx with hearts but no straight or straight draw. His range is likely to be hands that flopped a straight, probably with a redraw, and hands that don't mind getting it in on the flop against an obvious straight.

Strongly agree here. You said he's a winning player... he's way too deep to pot/GII with naked AAhh after a small preflop raise.

I think his small preflop raise actually argues against him having many of his AA hands as often as something that plays better multiway, i.e. AXXX suited rundowns which could of course have smashed this board. He is anticipating multiway way action preflop and isn't scared of it postflop.

Also, I am only not saying OMG FOLD PRE because you asked nicely. But I am still gritting my teeth not to.