You're thinking about it the wrong way. When someone plays passively until the river then springs into action, they usually either improved on the river, were slowplaying, or are bluffing. I think we can rule out hands like 22xx or Q2xx and there don't seem to be any good candidates for slowplaying, so we are down to 53 or a bluff. He should put you on a set. If this is a smart player, you should ask yourself if he has the ability to try to bluff you off of a set here. My guess is that it is usually only going to be players who are capable of trying to bluff after accurately putting you on a non-nut full house.

If a player rarely bluffs, they tend to be even more unlikely to try to represent a backdoor draw coming in. I can see villain being more willing to turn a missed straight wrap into a naked ace bluff if a heart comes than I can see him trying to represent a straight.

Yeah lol, nobody ever makes a post about making a clear bluff-catch with top set then wondering if they should have actually folded. Would have prob given 3:1 OP said he had it.

I honestly think you played this hand perfectly. Your hand is 100% not strong enough to raise preflop, so flatting is for sure the best option. The flop/turn are both fine as well. You literally got max value while you are 100% ahead. You can easily balance that with a mixture of wraps + nfds, etc. On the river, you definitely have to call. The only hands that make sense are like A53x with the nfd, and KJ53 with a fd, J953 with a fd, and sets with exactly 53.

On the river, your decision should be whether or not to value shove, or check to induce the bluff yourself. As played, I think checking to induce is better as all the wraps + fds bricked + you block TT, so it is far more likely you're opponent has a bricked draw.

I love the way you played the hand, great job. Unfortunate that he had it, but honestly well done imo.

Actually how good a game it does potentially have an impact on our decision depending on the max rebuy because if we can't reload to cover the fish then we could potentially be losing out on future ev against the fish if we hit a big hand.

We still shouldn't be folding any significant amount of ev but if we think we're only good 33% and hence BE then the added factor above makes it a fold.

It's probably alright if you're gonna get called in two spots. Multiway using pot sizings is fine/good.

On the flop V2 should be:

1) leading?
2) check with the intention of raising?
3) check with the intention of calling?

Given the action, on the turn V2 should be:

1) leading?
2) check with the intention of raising?
3) check with the intention of calling?

This is a good thread because I frequently see this spot* come up all the time in live play.

*Players peeling on the flop with some random hand that gives them reason to continue on turn.

Appears the point to take from this hand is how sweet a bluffing spot this is for villain.

4 bet pre would be kinda wild imo. It's an ok hand to isolate with but really you are set mining and straight mining and only want hearts on the backdoor if at all.

I think villain never has a bluff, your hand is toast

bet river yourself.. then you definatly know he has some combination of 35xx if he repops it. he called $700 so good chance he would call another $700 with his worse set. full sized pot bet is fine i think too.

Im definitely calling preflop, your hand plays a lot better that way

I'm think the river is a fold given your description of villain 2. Tight players generally aren't bluffing in spots like this, he isn't repping much and he knows it so he's going to have it in my experience

I think I like leading the river better too, maybe a sizing which will induce the whale but fold to tight player against

Never folding this river vs described villain. A "very tight" villain is never showing up with 53 in this spot after calling flop and turn bets. Consider it a cooler and move on.

fyp... because as OP already revealed, villain did show up with 53 (and a hand combination that made sense)

Well yeah that's literally by definition every possibility.

Very tight PLO players snap-fold 6653 pre.

Well, they aren't making a thin value bet.

Even very tight PLO players play speculative hands preflop. (I am considered tight and I probably fold 6653 over half the time, but I sometimes play it under the right conditions.) They may bet strong draws on the flop. But there are some players who will never put in a significant bet on the turn or river without the nuts, unless it is an extreme situation like having top boat when quads are the nuts. There are some players who won't ever bet $1000+ on the river (regardless of pot size) without the nuts here, especially if it is a donk bet into the flop and turn aggressor.

Pot is $2800. Hero has about $1600 behind.

What do you think is a good bet size to see if villain repops it? Also, hero made a mistake in OP, which he corrected later in the thread. Villain led into hero, who was OTB.