Hi, this hand was played online, 6max, 2-4.

Villain's stats are 28/15/5 through 98 hands. Wasn't a station, wasn't a maniac, just seemed pretty ABC for now.

Nothing really happened - I was trying to c/r both flop and turn. I'm curious if river is a value bet, bluff catch, or c/r bluff

Hero: BB with AKT7

Pre:
Villain (UTG) raises 14, 4 folds, Hero calls 10.

Flop: A25
Check, check

Turn: 7
Check, check

River: 10
Hero..

Lead turn, you will whiff that CR with a high frequency.

As played river is value bet > bluff catch ~ CR which would likely be a value bluff which is a little fancy for no history, OOP, 6max, 2-4 IMO.

FWIW I think a river here looks like TTT or naked king, which is what you have. I suppose it is a flush sometimes as well.

strongly dislike c/r turn or riv. mildly dislike betting riv.

If you're villain and you have flopped a medium flush, are you bet/calling turn and calling a river PSB? I'm probably raising between 2-2.5x your turn bet.

Is river value bet too thin?

c/r turn is ok but i prefer lead turn.

as played i would valuebet river

i dont think there are a ton of mid flushes in his range, and i dont see the point in c/r when you beat a bunch of stuff and the hands that your c/r is targetting a) he doesnt have very often b) when he does have them, hes played hand in such a way as to be more likely to hero with them.
re your questions - i dont like folding when i heavily cap my perceived range, its just putting money out there asking to be abused. your bluff will work some nonzero amount of the time vs a mid flush but youre targetting such a small group of hands it just doesnt make sense to me esp when you have so much showdown value and hand durability on rivs with your two overs as well as top two.

reason i dislike riv is bc you block so much that i think he just folds like 90pc of the time and although its also unlikely he bluffs whn chkd to, i think prob he bluffs if you chk>>>prob he calls with worse if you bet.

My total apologies - my 4th card was an 8, not a 7. Can a mod please fix this?
On the turn I have top pair top kicker and I make 2 pair on the river.

probably better for image if u check now fwiw

seems like a std valuebet otr

Until shown aggr stabbing turn but as played, have to vbet river

This, average 6-max player is too passive to ever bluff river after getting there with this line. Could have a decent amount of 2 pair hands in his range with the check down too.

$9

although this sounds logical, i would still vbet here since after this action i would stab at the pot quite frequently and we kind of have to balance this stabs out with semi-thin valuebets imo.

id take a smallish amount of issue with the first statement (its kinda true, but i dont think its as nailed down a certainty as you say) and a much larger amount with the second (he seems on the taggy side and opened utg, not a ton of 52/85/72/85/T2 combos there...if we assume he chks entire range on flop and turn then using the top 15%6h ppt shortcut he has 2pr ~16% of the time. if i manually build a more representative utg range that figure goes up since obv it starts to incorporate midrundowns, but in reality it has to be at least somewhat likely he cbets/delay cbets his flop/turn air thats 2pr by the riv, so i dont think he has 2pr very often at all.

yeah im coming around a little re vbetting riv, i still think he folds overwhelming majority of the time but its true that he also chks back a very high % as well, and i guess in addition to the benefit you list theres the small added factor of heros hand not getting shown down. i dont think ev wise it matters much either way so i guess if you include bluff range protection/info denial on the side of betting it poss tips the scales.

river is a pretty clear bet imo

He folds the majority of the time, hence we wanna bluff here the majority of the time, hence we gotta put this hand in our value range.

Don't think you will extract value either way. Hands that villain will call your r bet (T2>) won't bet for value and he won't bluff here often at r.

The reason I lean towards betting is to put pressure on your opp and send a msg that you will bet r to take pot away if he continues to ck back IP for F&T. Cking this hand at SD will help this passive Villain as he will feel more relax to ck back and won't get punished when you get there.

i kinda get what you mean re villain and it being bad to let him stay in his comfort zone, but i dont get why you want to start encouraging him to play more aggro cbetting strat, esp in pos on boards where he enjoys a decent range v range edge.

My intention is not to encourage him to bet, but to call with weaker holdings. The former requires adjusting his aggression while the latter falls within villain's current strategy:- ck back weak holding but may call. We want to give him a chance to make incorrect call with marginal hands instead of utilising his positional advantage to ck them back.

I guess another way to say this is that by leading river protects our river bluffing range.