Hero, villain effective stacks $900. Villain is a big loser in the game, consistently, though today they have been winning. V tends to play too many hands, so often will GII light. V hates playing against hero, in fact, V wins maybe 10% of all-ins he has vs. hero

$5/5, $10 button straddle

Hero raises to $40 in MP w/ AKQ8

Only V limp/ calls UTG. This V would have raised 100% of the time preflop with AA, so I am confident he has no AA in range, but their limp/call range consists of pairs, pair +FD, low cards, and lots of other garbage.

Flop A25

V leads for $80. Hero calls. A few backdoor draws, plus my 2P outs are live.


Turn ($250). J
V bets $200. I thought about jamming here, but V seems interested with the large sizing, like maybe they have 34 or AJ. Hero calls.

River ($650) A25J2
V bets $200.

I decide to go all in, it would cost V ~$400 more to call.
V tanks and...


Interested to hear your thoughts on how the hand played out.

I mean, you're repping nothing

Don't know if he's thinking but if he is he'll call with like literally every hand that is better than yours, and fold every hand which isn't

I agree you rep nothing. You never have a boat on the river here because you raise all sets on the turn. The only hand you could possibly have is A2, and even that just calls a bet on the river.

I don't like the bluff from a theoretical standpoint, but I like it if you have a lot of fold equity vs. a non thinking opponent.

fold the flop

Ty for interesting responses. I think it's certainly possible for AA,55,22 to play the hand this way

Are you boatmining the turn here vs. likely 34?

Hero probably doesn't have many sets aside from AA, but I don't entirely agree with the idea that hero would raise all sets OTT, I mean hero can definitely call flop, raise turn with AA in this spot but will also be call/ calling plenty too, hand makes an excellent combo to protect your range with, allows villain to continue bluffing or betting worse, which a turn raise might get those hands to fold.

When villain bets $200 OTR I would also be very tempted to shove but maybe $400 behind is a little too shallow to put this type of opponent in a tough spot, especially if you've been crushing him long term I'd expect him to be putting the foot down and flicking in the call "that a$$hole can't ****** have it again?!?" Lmao.

Put yourself in opponents shoes with this line. Do we really expect sets to be in our turn calling range that often?

The only time I'd expect to see a set shown down after this turn is when we also have the board completely crushed like 34 with a set, or nut spades with a set, etc.

Very few players in the games I play are raising the turn with a set. If they are raising with a set, they are doing so on the flop. If they just call with a set on the flop, they are usually just calling on the turn.

Can't speak for everyone here, but I would never just call the flop and turn with 34+set. OP played this hand consistent with how I would play AAxx. It's a good bluff if you have a nit image and people think you would play AA this way.

calling flop probably isn't right vs what seems like a nit

I don't put his range on explicitly 34. I think it should also include AJ, A5, smaller sets, and any 2p+FD, a range AA is barely ahead of. I also include the implied odds of hitting here, as I am confident I could get paid a small bet.