2/5 PLO, hero has $2K in front, been playing pretty tight because extremely crazy guy on my left for the past 2 hours who raises 90% of hands pre, effective stacks $900 though.

Villain is super nitty, rarely raises, plays hardly any hands, which could be a function of the extremely crazy guy potting it preflop almost every hand.
V limps, 2 other limpers in front, hero decides to limp with A299, expecting guy to my left to raise. Guy to my left limps

7 players to flop,
Flop ($35) is 966

2 checks to hero; Hero bets $25, only the one villain calls.
Turn ($85) A
Villain checks, hero bets $35. Villain x/raises to $135. Hero calls
River ($355) T
Villain bets $200.

Hero puts villain all-in for another $500 ($700 total).

Thoughts on the raise in general, and on the sizing?

Now here's the thing.

In a vaccum against anonymous I think that is the line to take. would be slightly larger on the turn, more like 49. And then shove the river.

With the reads and situation you mentioned, I don't mind just flatting the river. I mean if he really is that nitty, he is not going to bluffraise, he is not going to raise AKK4 with the King hearts, he probably doens't raise A6.

So it's basically Aces or sixes.

Again Nitty means almost no bluffs. Nits don't bluff, that's why they are nits.

You bet out into 4(? 5?) people, and then fired again. that is very strong! What should he put you one? K6? 96?

So what value hands can you beat? 96 but I don't see him raising that since it's just asking for terrible rivers and it might already be deaad. And A6... and well, raising with the underfull is just something no thinking player does.

I feel like we're too strong to fold, but I wouldn't raise again. There are also players I could see a fold against, but that is only if you really know someone and played with them for like at least a month live or a week online and know they always have it.

Against a nitty player, I flat the river. I just don't know what he calls with that you beat? A6? Hearts? Doubtful on a paired board unless he mixed you up with the crazy guy.

BTW, bigger on turn.

Yup


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i would bet much bigger on turn and fold to turn check raise.

because he is not going to continue with anything less than A6 on turn ..so might as well go for max value against a6

as played i would fold to river bet BUT our small turn bet may have induced him to go for value with A6

so if you are feeling generous call the river bet

raise on the river is way too aggro for a full ring plo game ...this isn't hu plo

I can see villain playing A6 this way, but I can see him folding that hand to a river raise. If you're not getting value from A6, that raise doesn't look so good.

A nit is generally going to put you on a range of 96/A6, maybe 99, and his bet is generally going to be a value bet against that range. If he shows up with something else, I would question your ability to accurately describe someone as a nit.

If he is folding everything to a river 3B but TT+ then you should only raise quads yourself is the answer methinks.

A few observations to think about: If he is super nitty he would likely fold AA on the flop as you are not last to act and bet into a 5 way limped pot. There is also only one combination of AA of course with your blocker.

In my live experience even super nitty players would raise the turn and bet river to these sizings with A6, and there are 4 combinations of A6 to one 66 and one AA. When players make full houses with a pair of aces to go with trip whatever they over assume they have the hand locked up in my experience. Just like people overplay aces with bad kickers in Holdem.

TT6A is a hand that now beats you as is I suppose TT6x that took a turn raise line. Bluffs are also possible though probably very unlikely.

But it all comes back to the fact that he is likely dumping everything to a river raise. And you should think of other spots to bluff him in and getting him in a hand with a low SPR and him out-of-position versus your wide/strong range where you have everything and AA altogether at once.

I'm a micro player and this should be posted in the micro forum. It's basic, the dude is a nit. You just lit money on fire. It happens, I do it quite frequently!

I find it interesting that many people are placing villain on AA or 66 without referring to the whole hand, including preflop. Villain did not raise pre (as nits do with AA), and nits fold almost all 66 pre. Not value raising when one can extract value is just as much "lighting money on fire" as is raising when one should not.

Why bet so small on turn? I think had you bet bigger we'd be able to define v's hand a lot better. As played its tough to say whether villain saw your bet as very weak so was making a move or if it was his standard value line. I still call, and go all in on river putting him on A6

This is very much not true. The players I think of as nits are going to be more likely than any other player at the table to have AA with this preflop action. They might even just limp-call instead of limp-reraise here with the crazy guy raising almost every hand.

Maybe you've just never experienced a truly nitty PLO table.

And nits don't call a river raise with less than 99. (Plus, in the OP you said he rarely raises -- and he's expecting crazy guy to raise.)

I suppose you are right. I guess we never can truly rule out AA from a nit's hand.

A good point. I might add, my assessment of him being a nit was all the information I had leading up to the start of the hand. In fact, he had not played many hands at all. If he calls the river raise with less than 99, we can add that information to our small sample size, and adjust our view of villain further.

Yeah if he's a nit he's never calling your river shove with anything less then AA/1010/66; as prior posters noted AA is limped all the time by nits and 66 is playable with hands like 6678[ds] or 4566[ds].

Even if he's not a nit it's insanely difficult to call with anything less then a boat, and as you have 99 it seems unlikely he has 96 and would check-call on that flop with the action you gave (or that he would check-raise 96 with that turn after check-calling the flop). He's either trapping you or drawing against you and the only drawing hands that got there are A6 or AA.

A6 is really the only thing I could see him check-raising the turn with besides AA (other then a stone-cold bluff), as he could think you have 96 and now he's trying to go to value-town.

As played I flat this river, I'm not looking to ship the river to someone when they are acting so strong OOP - if his hand range is AA or A6 then you probably aren't even losing much value from A6, really good players would still be able to fold the river since they lose to 99/66/AA/1010.

You've told him you are super strong betting that flop and then calling a check-raise on the turn and he's still leading into you, so the action alone tells me I should be gravely concerned that I'm getting cold-decked.

As a general side note, what we are evaluating is the likelihood of him showing up with certain hands given ALL the action - not just preflop action.

What is more likely? That he made a bad passive play preflop with AA? That he made a bad call with AA on flop? May be he had AA6x? OR that he is going thin for value with A6? Or that he will call down a river raise with A6?

His ranges become progressively narrower. It is much more likely for players to make a bad preflop play than it is for them to make a large river mistake.

Pots are small preflop. Many recreational players will continue with too many hands preflop and on the flop. But tighten up a lot on turns and rivers.

Posterior probabilities are different from prior probabilities.

I wouldn't raise. You'd have to be very specific about what hands you think he plays this way that will call off that you beat.

I would limp AA w a guy raising 90% of hands left to act

i doubt he would raise turn with TT, and even if he is a nit it seems less likely that he would limp AA pre

when he bets less than PSB OTR (57%) it also makes me think it is more likely that he is tentatively going for value with a smaller boat, hearts+666, etc

on top of this we also unblock hearts, and i could see a nit taking this line with hearts and trip 6's or something like that

all of these factors combined make me think raising light (which you did) is a great option, but i wasnt there and im just some dude on the interwebs

lol im looking at it again and thinking it could easily be 6666 tho, or AA. this is an interesting scenario, i think any small read on this guy would sway me one way or the other (call vs raise light)

Especially bad Aces...... He would likely limp to RR good aces with the described table dynamic if the pot size gives a favorable SPR on the flop. He will likely limp/call with bad AAxx.

A nitty player who knows people see him as a nit will often bet less than pot on the river because they won't call a big bet. One nit I know often bets less than quarter-pot on the river and never bluffs. I am disciplined enough to check good hands like the second-nuts against him but other players pay him off a lot.

i never ever raise this river against a nitty opponent. It's closer to a crying call as opposed to a raise.

As mentioned, if this player will pay off your final raise with A6 - then they are not a nit.