Game is 25/25/50/100 and ninehanded. Im the 100 and pickup QdJdTc9s. Fairly deep, I sit with close to 20 000 and most players cover. Utg bets 400 and five players call, incl me.

Flop is AsKh6s. Checks to preflopraiser who bets 1500. Button calls and I call. Rest folds. Both players cover me.

Turn is the 8c. I check and preflopraiser bets pot. Button tankcalls. Whats my play here?

Read on the raiser: very aggressive, very good, very accomplished and very comfortable. Button is pretty much the same but clearly less of everything. Both view me as more of a nit.

Currency is not USD. 100 is appr 11/12 USD.

You're saying you have six clean outs against opponents who are unlikely to call you with a worse hand if you hit. You have three unclean outs that also bring a flush and you are out of position, so are very bluffable if you get a spade that completes your straight draw. Your opponents are competent enough that if either has two pair, they are likely to have some of your outs.

Would you say that is a fair assessment of your situation?

Thats fair yes.

Actually the three sevens is also good, so possibly nine outs.

Then, this is a very clear math problem. You know how many outs you have. You can't hit unless you hit one of your outs. You know your immediate odds. You have a good idea of your implied odds if you hit and bet out. That's trivially easy math.

So, you have to ask yourself, if you hit your straight and check, will the preflop raiser bet a set for thin value, hoping to get called by a smaller set or two pair, and if you both check, would button bluff with a busted flush draw (and how likely does he have that draw)? Does that happen often enough to shift the math in favor of a call?

Ah, yes. Missed those.

Got it. Thanks. It probably doesnt happen often enough.

An other: is this a mandatory raise preflop?

I tend to think there is almost no such thing as a mandatory preflop raise in PLO. I think it depends on your style. I lean towards almost never raising in early position, but that is a personal preference crafted to fit my tight style. I don't think it is a mistake to raise with this hand. I just don't do it often.

fold the flop your hand is practically worthless

Got it. Its very interesting to think about how the hand plays out if I repot it pre. Its almost a given that the table puts me on AAxx or KKxx and still calls (or repots if someone else holds AAxx) because of stackdepth. And in that scenario id be more or less ”forced” to bet the pot on the flop. Thats a tough spot for anyone not holding AA.

Yep I considered that.. Is everyone folding flop?

I did some rough sims and your hand is in really tough shape against any value hand and flush draw which will be the case very very often in this spot against the strong UTG range & BTN who will be pretty flush draw heavy, even worse shape if your opponents have any of your outs in their hand which is fairly often as well. I'm folding this hand on the flop you need ~30% to continue and you'd be lucky to have half of that in equity. If BTN had folded I would peel at least once however but I'm not super excited about it

Price is 1500 to 5400 though so less than 30% needed right?

3.5:1 corresponds to 22.2% equity but you're not all in so that isn't really that important.

Turn is a call btw.

Fold flop. As played, fold turn. Also you should normally discount your outs on this type of action, so instead of 6 you are looking at 5.5 or less.

No, you should count the full six on the flop, because while it's possible that one element of your draw is copied by someone else, it is also almost a certainty that there are other holdings out there like two pair or a set or a flush draw, meaning that the total pool of cards to draw from is much smaller than our knowledge of unseen cards would indicate. So it balances out. So instead of 6/47 we are actually 4/32 but the ratio is the same.

When the possibilities for what your opponents can have are so up in the air, you shouldn't make any assumptions about unseen cards.

You should discount your outs because some of your outs may be drawing to a chopped pot if they have straight draws in their range.

Yes but they might also have other holdings, in which case we are drawing from a smaller pool of cards and hence more likely to hit our straight. It balances out, you shouldn't make assumptions about unseen cards.

Consider the two scenarios:

1 - Player 1 has a range of sets and top two. Player 2 has the same range. We have a wrap.
2 - Player 1 has a range of sets and top two. Player 2 has a range of sets, top two, and wraps. We have a wrap.

Based on the numbers I have run in the past, I believe we have higher equity in scenario 1. It does not balance out. You are welcome to run the numbers through an equity calculator and show me that I am wrong.

We can also assume that if one of the players has AK in their range, based on their description, they almost always have at least one other broadway card in their hand, so the distribution of the other cards is not completely random and we can discount our outs by a fraction. I'm not sure what fraction, but it is non-zero.

Also, we are in really bad shape if one of these players has the nut flush draw with a straight draw. A hand like AKQT with spades is definitely a hand that either player could have here.

I agree, but how is that in any way germane to my point that we should not be making assumptions about unseen cards, because they could just as easily help us as hurt us?

Your equity is based on unseen cards that your opponents might hold. Thinking in terms of ranges is making assumptions about those unseen cards.

Thank you bd, for doing a good job of explaining in more depth. I didn't want to do it

1. You have 9 clean outs on the turn with the non spade 7 as perhaps the most disguised out. I’m going with the assumption that someone has the NFD

2, your problem is your perceived image is a nit. This makes it incredibly hard to make any money once you make your hand on the river, unless the pfr continues to bet “something” as a block bet or to maintain aggression, or to use the stiff As as a bluffing card

3. Because of issues made in point number 2, your implied odds aren’t there to just call, hope to hit, and make some money. If your perceived image was not a nit, you would have some implied odds to just call and make some money on the river if you hit

4. Pot on turn is 19500, and you have to call 6500. your stack before calling is about 18000.

5. Because of point number 4, I’d opt to gii now. Getting it in now lays the first villain to act about a little more than 3:1. If he calls, the second villain will get a little more than 4:1
This might make one of the villains sticking around with NFD to Lay it down. This would be great as it might gain you more outs. This might also make one of the villains you may chop with on the river to lay down their hand on the turn

6. You are seen as a nit, so that should fold some sets, two pairs, smaller wraps.

Much more high variance but I see this as the best line to take now


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