Quote:
Originally Posted by BDHarrison
Given no read, I assume the opponent has a range of mostly fit-or-fold hands.
I'm expecting a lot of T3xx and 63xx hands from typical opponents. I'm not surprised to see a flopped middle or bottom set but I wouldn't classify those holdings as necessarily slow plays. A lot of players don't raise with non-nut made hands.
If you flat with 33 or 66 pre-flop and then flop a set 100bb deep 3 way you should be classing it as the nuts on a dry board like this.
What about hands like KK57, QT78? Basically any T with some sort of wrap or straight with back door draws or any KKxx hand that had some straight/back door equity on the flop.
If you are only expecting T3 and 63 hands to call the flop (and then call the turn?) then you can be printing money by c-betting this flop and turn runout.
If we aren't shoving AA on the river here, we're going to be super polarized if we do shove river since we don't have many 3x (or maybe 3x is too thin also if AA is, so rather stuff like T3 or 63) in our UTG range so it's mostly just TT and maybe QQ (again, turn bet seems too thin for QQ tho based on your assumptions) for value.
There's a lot more combos of 789x hands tho that we should be bluffing with after taking this line though - which will make our river shoving range too bluff heavy if we are discounting AA from it.