Online 3-handed game $3.75/7.5 equivalent blinds.
V1 = The most nitty player I've ever played. $375 starting stack.
V2 = The most aggressive player I've ever played. Usually players higher stakes but slumming with us. V2 is very aggressive but not an idiot. Uses his image to his advantage a lot. $750 starting stack
H: $750 starting stack
Me: A
Q
J
9
on button. V1 in SB. V2 in BB.
I pot to $26.25
V1 folds
V2 calls
Pot $56.25
Flop Q
9
8
V2 checks
H bets $16
V check-raises to $82.50
V does this a lot when I bet small. Given the J blocker, I don't think he has JT.
H calls
Pot $221
Turn 3
V1 bets $175
Still not convinced he has TJ here, plus I have the flush draw outs in addition to hitting the straight (which might not be good if I hit), or a boat.
H calls
Pot $571
River J
This card definitely sucks because if he's been semi-bluffing, he got there.
V bets $285
This half pot sizing really seems like he got his straight and trying to get value. But this guy is absolutely capable of 3-barrel bluffs and this is a perfect bluff card. That being said, what bluffs can he arrive with at the river here? He has a lot of semi-bluffs that now got here. I would expect a full shove if he had KT to get value from any ten that got there. So his straights that would have gotten there are QT, JT, 9T, 8T, and I block every one of those except 8T. He didn't 3-bet pre, which he does a lot, so I don't think he's got too big of a hand with a lot of connectors that would have gotten him 2 pair that turned into a straight.
V has only $181 behind so I'll never be able to bluff him off of a set, so I have bluff-catcher value only.
H ?
Overthinking this here or just a very obvious fold? Am I ever good 25% of the time here?