Villain and I in the hand started with about 2k each.
Hero dealt: J1098
Hero raises UTG to 15, 6 calls (villain in the BB completes).
Pot:$90
Flop J83
Villain loose, doesn't like to fold much, bets flop 70ish?, hero UTG pots, folds to villain who calls.
Pot: $600ish
turn: 5
Villain checks hero pots, villain calls rather quickly?
Pot: $1200-ish
River: 3
Villain checks, hero bets $875

I feel like the line until the river was pretty standard. Curious what people think about betting the river given we have decent showdown value.

New to plo but I don't like the river bet. Do you think he calls wth AJ? Maybe you get the same hand to fold. I don't see much value here.

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

Check back river. We have good showdown equity and are toward the middle of our range. I'd be betting with boats and missed draws that don't have a AJ+.

Yeah, I also check back river for the reasons stated above. If V got all this way with an overpair he's probably not folding now, and hard to get value from worse.

I check back the river. I really don't know what worse hand calls you here? I would actually be pretty happy that he checked river

I didn't necessarily bet for value on the river, I bet for protection against hands like qq/kk with a draw that I didn't want to beat me if i checked back and might find a fold.

There's no reason to bet for protection on the river. Think what you're saying is that you're trying to bluff an overpair out of the pot. Problem is that this is a great run out for an overpair with the board pairing, so not a great river to barrel.

Exactly. River helps an overpair, not a good spot to turn your hand into a bluff, imo

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

Hero's hand does look a lot like AA or JJ, maybe betting the river will get QQ/KK to fold, but his range is much wider and he might not fold.

Like everyone has said, betting the river is not standard, you are turning a hand with showdown value into a bluff and overpairs can call a river bet on this runout (plus you said your opponent is sticky)

That's true, but if V didn't believe us on flop or turn, what will change their mind on the river? I guess possible they had overpair + flush draw, and fold river when they whiff on flush, but again we're trying to bluff out a very narrow range of cards here, and most of the time when we get a fold we're winning at showdown anyway.

nice hand. why check river with this beautiful hand. NH

What worse hand calls?

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

Villian is loose. When he bets, his range includes lots of 2-pair hands. Unless he has the same top two as you, the 3 filled him. If you have a set, then pairing the 3 means you STILL have the best hand, so the 3 didn't really help. The 3 does help a lot of his hands, and he surely knows its a good card for an over-pair.

AhJh is about the only hand he can call with that you would beat; but his flop play is suspect with that hand.

i check the river
sucks when he has queens or whatever but i can't find any value in betting.

flop and turn obv standard

The GTO play is to triple barrel and balance out your JJ & 88 as you raised the flop with it. Whether or not you do this depends on if your opponent has a fold button.

I like this answer best.

Also Pot should be 1800$ish on river right?

Hero's raising range on the flop looks something like:
(qjt8, qjt9):cc:xxyz, jt98:cc:xxyz, AcT9:cc:10%, AA:Ac:cc, (JJ,88):10% for 2361 combos.

On the river:

• the 933 combos of (JJ,88):10% makes up the top 40% of our range.
• the 1209 combos of AA:Ac:cc!JJ!88 makes up the middle 50%

Describing this triple barrel as gto seems like a pretty big overreach, I certainly don't have gto solved for such a complicated spot but all my study into the area suggests this comment is unlikely to be correct

First, jjxx & 88xx are not automatic raises following a gto strategy anyway

This was an interesting spot that I hadn't been in too often lately (I don't play much these days). I did not think a large segment of his hands could call, and I did not want to let a random hand that had fallen into a better hand than mine (kk910 etc) see the showdown for free when they may fold. He was loose, but no one likes calling big bets on paired boards without a boat amirite?

I'm not really convinced that a bet was a good idea, but the replies about "what worse handwill call" are a little off from what my thought process was. I don't expect a worse hand to call, I expect a segment of his better hands to fold.

The problem I have with this bet is that for it to be a sensible bluff, it's not enough that he fold 40% of the time. You're true that a large segment of his hands have to fold, including most flush draws and straight draws, as well as other random hands. However, most of the time he folds, you were winning at showdown anyway. He has to fold 40% of the hands that beat you for the bluff to be profitable here.

So what hands beat you? Obviously he's calling all boats, though discount that some given his passivity (though 83 or something wouldn't shock me). If he binked trips he's probably calling. So you have to fold out overpairs. We can discount AA a good bit, because he just flatted 6-way in the BB. Maybe discount KK a little for the same reason. So you're basically trying to get folds from KK or QQ. However, if he has KK or QQ, how is he getting to the river and then folding on a good run out? If he had KK or QQ without the flush draw, then he was coming along the whole way with no real hopes of improving, and probably calls on this run out. So you're really getting folds from KK and QQ with the flush draw or the straight draw (both of which you have blockers against). That's a reasonable part of his range that beats you, but while I can't count combos in PLO it doesn't feel close to 40% of his range that's ahead of you.

Maybe this is where we differ in thought. Kk or QQ with a draw, whether it be flush or straight could get sticky on this board, but I don't think calling close to 200BB on the river facing this sort of post flop aggression would be easy at all, and I don't really think many rec players would make it. I think their standard thought line is to give credit and think about what hands beat them.

I agree with you that you can get a fold from KK or QQ that had a straight draw or a flush draw too. Those hands would usually fold, though sometimes decide to station. I just don't think that makes up enough of the range beating you to justify turning your hand into a bluff here, especially when taking into account the fact that those hands sometimes call even if they usually fold. I also think that if V somehow has KK or QQ without a draw, he is calling, because he thought his non-drawing hand was good on flop and turn, and nothing has changed on river.

So what happened!?

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

Op
I understand what you are trying to convey but I think a bet here is very questionable and should be made when you have a very particular type of villain. Villain snap calling turn is where I would hit the brakes unimproved on river

Literally, every draw bricked, so while you may represent JJ you also rep a busted wrap and/or busted suits...that’s three to four times more combos of hands you can have than JJ. A villain who doesn’t fold much is almost never folding a stronger hand. Your hand has showdown value

This is a great runout for JJ because of all the hands a sticky villain can hero call with




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I appreciate the responses so far. Like I have been saying, I was not sure at the time that a river bet was a good decision, it is why I brought it to the forum to get some discussion going. I'm not convinced that I wouldn't potentially bet again in this spot, but maybe not against this type of villain.

Villain had J 3 with rags, filled up on the river. He tank called the bet after a few minutes.