Quote:
Originally Posted by jackpot13
Given the high rake of PLO @ Stars the game can not be called a +EV skill game, its more of a casino game.
While we PLO players
FEEL like that we could try to
PROVE it. Suggested below is
a FORMAL MATHEMATICAL PROCEDURE to determine MAXIMUM REASONABLE RAKE %
for a pot-limit/non-limit poker game, particularly for
NLH and
PLO.
The results are expected to clearly demonstrate that:
+ for NLH maximum reasonable rake is significantly higher than for PLO, and
+ current typical 4.5% rake for PLO is too close (if not beyond) to the point when poker game is effectively converted into bingo/roulette: a game with certainly negative EV for all players at the table no matter which strategy they use.
General idea
PokerStars representatives like to repeat that poker for them is about sport and competition. Similar argument is frequently used to distinguish between poker and other forms of gambling when legal status of poker is considered (currently in the US for example).
It is true that in a long run skilled poker player will be a winner when playing against mindless gamblers... for as long as the game is not raked. It is obvious however that when rake % exceeds some certain threshold even a perfect player will not be able to win. Let us denote this threshold as maximum reasonable rake. Now we need to get an estimate for this value depending on the game type.
The procedure
To calculate a maximum reasonable rake we need first to determine a strategy for our "mindless gamblers": neither they should donate money nor should they intentionally play for a positive EV. For the simplicity of calculations and clearness of the results let us first assume that our gamblers simply go all-in with every hand. (If someone thinks this model is far from reality he/she should try playing $0.5 zoom PLO on Saturday or Sunday evening.)
So we have from 3 to 5 all-in gamblers at the table and our Hero -- a perfect player able to construct the best counter-strategy for any given set of opponents' strategies. Now we only need to determine maximum rake % that will still allow our Hero to win money.
Obviously maximum reasonable rake thus defined will depend on the number of players a the table, but I would not expect this dependence to be strong for 4-6 players. The result will also depend on the stack size chosen for the calculations, but we may use minimum buy-in as it is set by PokerStars for PLO, 40-50bb. The most important is that maximum reasonable rake thus determined will differ dramatically depending on the game type, namely NLH or PLO.
Calculations
The calculation scheme is rather straightforward, I would suggest using direct enumeration for Hero's hands and Monte-Carlo calculations to find approximate EV of each hand vs. X all-in'ers. I can go into further details if someone is interested.
===
If calculations described above were conducted and we had the results, we then could ask PokerStras the following questions:
+ Are you aware that current 4.5% rake allows 3+ gamblers at the table to voluntarily convert a PLO game into a bingo/roulette (-EV) game?
+ How this fact coexists with your statement that you treat poker as kind of sport and competition?
Personally I think such position would be stronger than reference to ill-defined "rake in bb/100" stat or complains about someone being unable to beat the game (sorry,
napsus). However we need first the necessary calculations to be conducted.
Is anyone interested in developing this idea further?
Last edited by archaeopteryx; 02-25-2013 at 07:14 AM.
Reason: Minor corrections