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I think something a lot of people forget about Stars' rakeback is that *every* player gets it. I doubt the fish on other sites know about RB and are usually getting 0%.
So when you're comparing total money being taken out/given back to the ecosystem you must take into account that important fact. I'm not sure what the average RB % is for Stars but off the top of my head I want to say somewhere between 15-22%. Also the argument that "fish don't optimise their FPP usage" is already taken into account, and I think one of the nuggets of knowledge that came back from one of the player meetings was that the vast majority of users cash in their FPPs for optimal or close to optimal rates.
I'm not intentionally trying to defend stars just for the heck of it here but if you want to be heard you absolutely must use correct facts and complete information in your arguments else they are useless.
First sentence is in fact true for many many sites, like Chinz said and I have yet to play on a site where I wasn't automatically in some reward system.
About the bolded part: Why would Pokerstars recretional players be more savvy about rakeback/VIP program and recretional players on other sites clueless about them? Sounds really weird to me.
It sure is not because of them advertising their VIP program more than their competitors. Have a look at these screenshots of the landing pages of pokersites and I would argue that players on other sites are
more savvy about rakeback/bonuses/rewards because the info is right there where you download the program or sign up to play.
The last 2 screenshots are littered with info about promotions, bonuses and rakeback. Pokerstars tells you how fast you can start playing and the $600 first deposit bonus is in the middle of the picture in a little box.
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Well while I'm not defending the rake, I'm not attacking it either. Call me Switzerland.
Honestly, I don't know. I have very little in the way of actual facts in terms of sustainable winrates for these stakes and my best guess is neither do most of the people posting about the issue.
There appear to be a few different types of people with opinions on the matter:
1) Mid-High stakes players who have been at these stakes for a long time. They look at the rake in bb/100 at lower stakes and say that it's bad, unsustainable, that they want more money flowing up the ladder, etc etc. They far and wide actually have close to zero experience or knowledge of the games or the winrates possible. Some say "well I could definitely beat the games but i'm really good and it should be easier for new players to win".
2) Micro-Low stakes players who are struggling to beat the games. They look at the rake in bb/100 and then their winrate and go oh holy **** if that was just reduced a little bit i'd be a winning player! or if it was reduced a little bit more / if they were already winning, they'd be crushing it! While true it's also possible that they just aren't that good at poker (yet) and if they were better they would indeed beat the games for a healthy amount (and move up if they so desire).
3) A mid-high stakes player who has recently risen through the ranks from low/micro stakes. Everyone considers these players to be "very good" at PLO and they generally self admit that they ran well to get there. Perhaps that's true (probably is, most people have to run good to move up -- this is not a problem exclusive to low stakes) but it's hard to deny that they were/are winning players in those lower stakes games that they played.
4) Current winning regulars of micro/low stakes. Every now and then someone will post a graph of them beating the games and is usually met with either respect or a "lol sample size" reply. There are probably other winning players staying under the radar either because they choose to or probably more likely because they aren't readers of these forums.
When you consider it all there is really very little in the way of solid factual information proving that it's "extremely hard to achieve a sustainable winrate". There are a lot of differing perspectives from the above groups of people but there are problems with all their points of view (hopefully outlined above). I like to make up my mind about anything based on facts and truths and i'm intentionally very vague throughout my life on issues I am uncertain of (I really dislike both arrogance and being wrong/giving out wrong info). The same thought process applies here when I come to trying to make my mind up on the issue.
We write on a poker forum which is the go-to online discussion platform for the top PLO players in the world, some of them even sharing their knowledge. Still I honestly can't remember many true Cinderella stories of players breaking from micros to high stakes. On the top of my head I can think of 2: Johan and GGARJ, and SSPLO posters absolutely love their stories as do I. I know they have great work ethics and have'nt exactly ran terrible as you mentioned for these types of players. So I don't really see the money flowing up it this sense, but I see a lot of guys giving up and disappearing from SSPLO even though there are skilled players giving them tips on a daily basis. I acknowledge that I see more of the latter because I mod SSPLO and don't play mid-high stakes, but I try to keep a close eye on these issues....so I might be wrong about. Please correct me if I am.
Then again I see many of the same players still grinding the same levels (PLO25-PLO100 since this is what I have been observing the closest) and fail to make the break out. The problem is not that a skilled player can't beat the games since they can. The are people playing with other players close to their skill level, trying to improve while the rake keeps hammering them during the process and they might eventually even give up since it seems very hard to win. Is this because of wrong learning methods, faulty poker logic etc? Sure this is the case for many player. Is the process of moving up the stakes affected by high rake? It most certainly isn't helping.
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I don't know what makes a sustainable poker ecosystem. Does anyone? What the hell is a "sustainable poker ecosystem" anyway? That there's more money coming in than being taken out or something to that effect I imagine. How much would reducing rake help that? Wouldn't the better players just win more money faster (taking that money out of the ecosystem)?
The question is that is it better Pokerstars taking money out of the ecomony, or the top players taking it out? I would argue that the latter is the case. The winning players are much much more likely to bring the money back to the tables, giving pokersites turnover and running the games, thus generating more played hands for the poker sites to rake. If a pokersite takes money out of the economy, not very much of it is coming back. Sure, it goes to marketing, keeping up the site, development of the software which help a lot, but I still argue that winning players' winnings come back more effectively to tables than the money taken as rake by pokersites.
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How would total deposits be affected? Would fish/recreational players deposit more, or less, as a whole? Will that amount offset the increased amount being won by the better players? If Stars does this and takes a hit to their revenue will they have to reduce their marketing budget? What effect will that have on the games?
It's very hard to give facts to the questions about Pokerstars business or possible developments should something change, since there are no facts available for these questions, just speculation.
Then again, lowering rake does not mean smaller long term revenues for Pokerstars. It might even be a catalyst for a PLO boom. In worst case the players that currently play would likely keep playing longer, and as PLO is a small part of Pokerstars revenue (according to Krmont22), I believe it would be worth the risk.
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With significantly lower rake there will be significant impacts to the VIP system, everyone will get fewer VPPs. Will the fish notice this? Care about it? Will they notice their deposits "lasting longer" and enjoy that, or will they only notice far fewer "points" and dislike that fact (or the fact that they can no longer make it to gold star every month)?
I believe most recreationals players play poker to win, not to collect VIP points. Sure there are some players that wanna grind enough to get that nice chip set from the VIP store. I think generally players would be a lot more happier having a better chance to win than gaining VIP points faster to buy something from the VIP store.
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My answer is that I don't know. As such, without enough information, I refuse to have a strong opinion on the matter.
There are a lot of self-serving posts and opinions on this topic, and a lot of people are very firm with them. A lot mask it by saying that it will be "better for the poker ecosystem". I am not saying that they are wrong. But I would love for someone to explain it to me using facts and not respond with "isn't it obvious?" or "with the rake that high, the games just can't be beat!" -- this forum is full of highly intelligent people capable of logical reasoning. I would love to hear it. Furthermore, if someone can prove that it actually IS impossible to beat the games (as so many people are saying), I think that would do a lot more for any argument than just stating over and over "with rake that high the games can't be beat".
Yep, it's a lot of educated speculation going on. Of course it's self-serving, we want better conditions for ourselves, why wouldn't we want that? Should we just pat Pokerstars on the back for making absolutely ****load of money?
Agree on the bolded part, but unfortunately Pokerstars is the only one capable of proving anything....and I believe their silence regarding this issue is telling something. They could provide us with cold, hard numbers but they don't.
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Originally Posted by PokerStars Steve
While you can argue that the rake structure is imperfect, it is not by accident that these characteristics of a game result in higher rake. These same game characteristics result in:
-a more exciting and interesting game
-larger winrates for the better players
-fewer hands dealt per hour
Note the bolded part, larger winrates for the better players, not larger AVERAGE winrates. This leads me to believe that PLO and NLHE average winrates are very close to each other, as has been argued by posters itt earlier.
Approximately same average winrate for both games, PLO gets fewer hands dealt per hour (probably in 10-20% ballpark), and PLO ~2x higher rake at low stakes compared to NLHE.
Does this make sense for a game that is played on the same platform as NLHE?
Last edited by napsus; 01-28-2013 at 01:07 AM.