[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $3/$6 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (MP): $1,272.40 (212.1 bb)
CO: $223.14 (37.2 bb)
BTN: $600 (100 bb)
SB: $2,664.55 (444.1 bb)
BB: $1,145.90 (191 bb)
UTG: $249 (41.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 5 4 7 6
UTG folds, Hero raises to $18, CO folds, BTN raises to $63, SB folds, BB calls $57, Hero calls $45

Flop: ($192) Q 5 7 (3 players)
BB bets $150, Hero ???


Villain at SB plays 54/27/af 1.4 but is not fishy and BTN (urnotindangr) has 10% 3betting stats. I decided to lead this flop if SB checks but he bets big into two people. Given he is not very aggro and we're very deep, with only buttom two pair and open-ender, I think jamming over the top is not a good play. My problem is I don't have good plan for the Turn card unless those made me str8 or boat. What if the Turn brings X and villain still pots it:

1) 2s - brings me backdoor flush draw. I guess I have to go with it?

2) 2h - the board doesn't change. Fold?

3) Kc - should I worry about KQ in his range?

Thank you guys =)

given that sb plays so many hands, there definitely are a lot of Q5, Q7 and 876 combos in his range which makes our bad 2pair + bad draw pretty marginal. what are sbs barrelingstats? if you think you have a good read on him on later streets like peeling and decide on later streets

Just saw him at 1 table so I don't have many reads on him =(
btw how to look barrelingstats in the 3bet pot multiway?

well the overall barrelingstats should give you a decent idea about his style...

call obv

then if he full pots turn on blank riv, let it go

if you turn spade another call

would be careful if turn a boat.

partypoker would have 4 bet preflop

Not sure what this means ... BB is 54/27 but not fishy? How many hands is this sample over?

I guess either way, if he's bad then he can potentially have all sorts of Q7/Q4 which often only make your straight outs good ones. Or if he's good, he is going to have wraps that dominate you and put you in a pretty rough spot the times the turn falls an 8.

Either way you aren't going to know what to do on any card except specifically a 3, so I would guess that the flop is probably a fold, especially with a strong player behind you who is actually even more likely to have stuff like Q7 in his 3betting range.

If the 4s in your hand is the 8s then I think peeling is probably a much more attractive option.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

820 trials (Exhaustive)

board: Q57

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
7s 4s 5h 6c	61.22%	502	0
QcJdTh9s	38.78%	318	0

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

820 trials (Exhaustive)

board: Q57

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
7s 4s 5h 6c	41.10%	337	0
QcJdTh7h	58.90%	483	0

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

820 trials (Exhaustive)

board: Q57

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
7s 4s 5h 6c	45.43%	367	11
6s 7h 8d 9d	54.57%	442	11

Someone better than me is going to have to figure out the combinatorics and frequencies of how often each of these occure, but to me, it seems like your in way too good of shape to ever fold. I'm sort of assuming Q high rundowns or J987 type hands are occuring more than Q7xx's(in BB's range, BTN could certainly have some of those).

Worst case scenario is when he has Q7xx and turn is a 2h, your a 3-1 dog at that point. Vs basically everything else you have equity against or are ahead. Idk to me I think we flopped too much to be able to fold at any point, but I could be wrong. Whether calling or raising is better is certainly up for debate. Leaning towards raising...

id repot pre if BTN is reg/whose name i recognize,
as for now id def peel 1 more, nothing else you can really do here

Repotting pre seems actually a really interesting option and I think I like it a lot better than flatting. At what point do you think it's better to just flat than repot though? Like how strong of a rundown? QTJ9? 9876?

Assuming we did happen to flat pre and peel flop, what are we doing on every pertinent turn card?

i sometimes call, sometimes repot w QTJ9 type hands, but def flatting 9876
if he pots again id fold on any 210JQKA
id continue w any 3578/ depends on sizing obv, cause i dont expect him to bet 3/8 turns, he is def betting 5,7 so theres a decision
if the turn is 6s/9s i continue/decide on size,, prolly shove over any 1/3 bet and potting when checked to

are we ignoring the fact that the BB just cold called the 3 bet?

how often is he cold calling with a Q7xx or Q4xx type hand? if that is the case wouldnt that weight his range more towards QQxx and rundowns?

I think I call here and fold if BB pots a poor turn card.

You cannot just fold here, and though there are a lot of bad hands you should end up with position here. And there might be a lot of poor cards for him as well. Though I think his hand SHOULD be a set here, he will let you know on the turn.

The part I hate about the hand is that if you do turn a boat you need to be careful. I would call if I make a boat. And think about folding to a river pot.

But with him playing that many hands. I am not really giving too much credit off one barrel. He is a fish playing that many hands imo.