Villain is a pretty std reg(probably good, haven't played a lot tough) playing 28/20/9
3bet otb is 12, but I'm pretty sure he isn't 3betting that wide in that stop.
Do you guys 4bet, or turn your hand into a bluff otf(would be pretty thin^^).....

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha, $20.00 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($2285)
Button ($2000)
SB ($600)
BB ($2000)
Hero (UTG) ($2376)
MP ($6166)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6, K, K, 3
Hero bets $60, MP calls $60, 1 fold, Button raises to $270, 2 folds, Hero calls $210, 1 fold

Flop: ($630) Q, 7, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $350, Hero calls $350

Turn: ($1330) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($1330) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $970, Hero ?

Fold river. He has QJ and checked the turn to throw you off and get you to call a riv bet.

I know i'm right because i'm drinking beer right now, and i'm always right when i drink beer

what percentage of the time does he have AA if his true 3bet% is 12%?

standard turn check behind from him with a Q since he won't be getting two more streets of value from you unless you have a Q yourself, but you might get tempted to call a river bet...if this makes sense, then i'd fold.

~1/3

Likelihood of him having AA is 2.5% but having no aces in our hand pushes it to 3%. 3/12 = 25%.

i agree w this. hardly ever a bluff.

I agree ^^

Think vs a 12% 3bet i think you gotta 4b for value.

yeah I'd 4b pre-flop for value as well.

You got to have some history w/ villain to contemplate a call OTR. Very trivial fold against most

I think 4 betting can show a very small profit. I "guesstimated" that against a button with 12% 3bet frequency for button vs UTGopen, who is 3betting 100% of his aces (25% of his range) we could make ~$155. I say "could" because there are so many assumptions involved in making that kind of calc. It wouldn't be surprise me if someone else thinks its -EV.

Anyway, If you call, you play out of position against a strong range that includes 25% AA. If this guy is a good aggressive player, there's no way you can show a profit calling a 3 bet OOP, and I'm sure it's the worst of the 3 options.

Folding might actually be the best vacuum play, and it saves you from a ton of variance, but given how much the button can abuse you folding in these spots, I don't think you can fold this as a gameplan.

So, I think 4bet>call. It's not going to show much of a profit, and it's a really high variance spot, but calling is going to be high variance AND -EV.

I find it hard to believe we're -ev calling here double suited.

seriously fold? ds kings yo

run some numbers. look at some graphs of how well we play vs a 12% excluding AA range. Look at how we play vs. AA. Sure, if you are better postflop and the guy is going to make mistakes, then the sims I ran are completely irrelevant. I don't think anyone can call this profitably vs a tough button w these 3bet numbers. Just think about how hard you get owned on so many flops... turns out position is super important against good competition :/

I'd never do it... but vacuum play, it's definitely not bad, and would def. smooth out the old graph a bunch.

I agree with jonno. raise > fold > call. unless you have some really strong reads on opponents post flop play, call isn't going to be +ev hu oop.
I am also never folding.

4betting can't be that bad 100bb deep, it's true that he prob doesn't squeeze too light, but he prob also doesn't squeeze mediocre AA hands, like AAT9ss. So his range prob includes premium AA and premium mid to high rundowns, lowering the number of AA combos. Making sense?

one more prob?

as played, easy fold OTR, he could easily be v-betting AA, if he's good.

I think AQ is more likely than JQ.

Surprised at the preflop discussion, I would have thought jam and call are about the same and fold is the worst option by a long way.

There is no way he doesn't squeeze AAT9ss on the BTN.

As mentioned he might not squeeze trashy offsuit AAxx hands, so he will probably have AA a bit less frequently. AAT9ss surely, but maybe not AA96o or the like.

Also, put me in the call > fold camp. Folding seems atrocious.

Ok, I guess not squeezing the AAT9ss would be nitty, not sure where to draw the line exactly though. AA87ss?

I would say like AA85r or the like.

imo

4bet > call >>>>>>>>>> fold

flop/turn are std imo.

river is c/f or c/r.

I think its a really close river decision. I expect villain to bet any Qxxx combos on the turn and I expect him to bet most of his AA** (checking back flop some % aswell) combos on turns alot aswell. And if he checked AA** on the turn, I dont expect him to bet that big otr. And our hand is kinda faceup and villain prolly knows this (so its kinda a leveling spot). But the big river bet is suspicious given the turn action(checking). If he hit 44xx or was so clever checking QQJx back on the turn so be it. Id look him up

assuming that 12% 3bet otb equals 12% squeeze is pretty ridiculous.
max 6-7% is way more realistic.

fold>>>raise>call

shoving here can be very profitable, but it has to fit in with an overall game plan including c/c flop with most if not all your Q hands.