Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99
When he checks the turn, I thought he would have KK here a lot and slows down a bit.... C/R in a multiway pot looks super nutted.
Why would he check KK on that turn? If I'm in his position and I just check-raised flop and got flatted my initial read would be "they have either 88/44 or a multi-draw with clubs+straight, I'm leading the turn on any non-club."
If I have KK and I'm OOP and just bloated the flop on a draw-heavy board why would I not lead that turn? If opponent has 88/44 he will still put more money in, if he has a multi-draw he gets to draw for free, if he is ahead somehow with 5-7 we still have outs to chop and scoop.
How would you play KK on the flop in his situation? Would you lead the turn based on that run-out (off-suit 6)?
Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99
I think 79 is so unlikely here unless he has like KK79 or K987. Maybe a FDSD combo like 9786 with two clubs. Other than these, 97 is almost nonexistent in his range. He has 7x and the same straight a lot..... I guess what I am wondering is..... is a jam worth it to get value from KKxx and two pair combos with blockers that might call plus get chops to fold?
It is very complex but I am just trying to get the most out of every spot.
K987 would make way more sense than KK79; like I said, it doesn't make sense to check-raise that flop OOP with top set and then not lead the turn on a non-club.
If he does have KK he ended up playing it pretty poorly and now he has to bet-fold river, so you aren't getting more money by over-shipping his river lead. If he does have the straight with a 7 but not 79 he is still calling, so again you don't gain any Fold Equity.
Sets + Two-Pair hands should be either check-calling or bet-folding that river; as played it's bankroll suicide to check-raise flop, check turn, then lead-river and call it all-in with a set/two-pair on that board...maybe he's that bad/loose and will call down light, but without knowing the player very well I don't like pushing that edge.