Good table. Very few 3 bets, so a lot of multiway pots but not enough Villains adjusting for this.

Villain in hand. Doubled earlier with AAxx but unknown up to this point.
Hero is running well. Doubled a couple of orbits ago with top set vs NFD.

OTTH (6max)
UTG ($200) raises to $7.
Folded to Hero ($602) with Q878 who calls.
SB ($200) calls.
BB ($550) calls.

Flop ($28) K48
Checked to Hero who bets $10.
SB calls.
BB raises to $68.
UTG folds.
Hero calls.
SB folds.

Turn ($174) 6
Check/Check

River ($174) 5
BB bets $87.
Hero… Just call or grip it and rip it?

In all likelihood he folds to any raise without a 7 and you get stacked by 79 so I doubt you get that much value from KK type hands if you ship it. Since he didn't bet the turn on what looks like a good blank after raising it's incredibly unlikely for him to have sets/two-pairs; I would just call in this spot.

Why didn't you bet the turn? Giving free-run outs to straight draws and flush draws is interesting....do you think he checks KK after check-raising the flop?

Wouldn't be shocked (especially if he has clubs to go with it), but most players would lead the turn after flop check-raise otherwise they lose all the value of their Fold Equity from the initial Check-Raise and they don't get to squeeze players with 44/88/K8/multi-draws into making super-tough decisions.

Small raise might be ok, but agree we rarely get called by worse. Rake can also make raising much less attractive.

Rake is already capped at this point.

In the moment, I thought he likely had KK and the turn slowed him down. I thought maybe he will call down with top set and a blocker???? Too ambitious?

When he checks the turn, I thought he would have KK here a lot and slows down a bit.... C/R in a multiway pot looks super nutted.

I think 79 is so unlikely here unless he has like KK79 or K987. Maybe a FDSD combo like 9786 with two clubs. Other than these, 97 is almost nonexistent in his range. He has 7x and the same straight a lot..... I guess what I am wondering is..... is a jam worth it to get value from KKxx and two pair combos with blockers that might call plus get chops to fold?

It is very complex but I am just trying to get the most out of every spot.

I think targeting this type of hand is reasonable, maybe with smaller raise sizes. Like 1.25 - 1.4x

Also agree with other poster(s) that it is really hard for villain to have 97 as played so raise is low-risk.

Why would he check KK on that turn? If I'm in his position and I just check-raised flop and got flatted my initial read would be "they have either 88/44 or a multi-draw with clubs+straight, I'm leading the turn on any non-club."

If I have KK and I'm OOP and just bloated the flop on a draw-heavy board why would I not lead that turn? If opponent has 88/44 he will still put more money in, if he has a multi-draw he gets to draw for free, if he is ahead somehow with 5-7 we still have outs to chop and scoop.

How would you play KK on the flop in his situation? Would you lead the turn based on that run-out (off-suit 6)?

K987 would make way more sense than KK79; like I said, it doesn't make sense to check-raise that flop OOP with top set and then not lead the turn on a non-club.

If he does have KK he ended up playing it pretty poorly and now he has to bet-fold river, so you aren't getting more money by over-shipping his river lead. If he does have the straight with a 7 but not 79 he is still calling, so again you don't gain any Fold Equity.

Sets + Two-Pair hands should be either check-calling or bet-folding that river; as played it's bankroll suicide to check-raise flop, check turn, then lead-river and call it all-in with a set/two-pair on that board...maybe he's that bad/loose and will call down light, but without knowing the player very well I don't like pushing that edge.

Very interesting hand indeed ...
1) Would V c/r Flop with 'only' a NFD? Maybe weak AAxx?
2) Would V shut down/slow play Turn after straight card comes in?
3) What is V putting Hero on after b/c Flop?
4) River could be KK 'thin' value with Hero checking back Turn
5) Would V fold a chop of middle straight to a pot bet that checked Turn?

With the table dynamic being 'let's see a Flop' the Player ranges are so wide and possibly disconnected as well that it's hard to navigate through the 'if/then' flow chart.

Don't think Hero needs to bluff Turn and maybe get pushed off FH equity by a made straight with flush draw.

Player history is important here ... if you can include Kx two pair and sets into his River bets (at this sizing), then I go for a raise. Players can be very wide PF/Flop but decently tight going to Showdown. Does V bet bottom straight? Can you get V off a chop with a large/pot bet? This comes down to Hero Showdown image now as well. Does Hero have any bluffs here with missed flush draws?

I think I toss in $210 (leaving him 265 behind) and then may have to decide if he'd ever shove with middle straight here. But a Player who pots Flop and then checks back Turn is basically offering FD/KK/AA/2pr (separately, with danglers) as their holdings. GL

call, you think he would x turn w/ KK but would then bet it otr when theres 4 to a straight? You think he'd call w/ KK if u raise otr? Turn seems fine.

As played, I like a call. I would size up on the flop. If you check/back turn, you are essentially raising the river as a bluff with a value hand. Is he really calling with worse?

Alright I'm gonna say it


Fold pre

yeah definitely fold pre. we're in MP facing an UTG raise, this is a very tough situation, basically the toughest aside from facing a raise and a reraise. you have a raise from the first position and the whole table still to act. this is a mediocre hand that is very second best. if you hit a set you shouldn't feel comfortable, if you make a flush you shouldn't feel comfortable. I think something like JJT9 ds would probably be a call.

edit : excuse me, our position isn't clear, except that we are not MP. Actually we appear to be on the button. still think it is a clear fold.

+1

I would probably fold it today. I have gone through some 6max training and it is a loose call for sure.

Fold pre in loose games mandatory. Not raising river (or expecting KK to value bet river)