I'm not sure what you're trying to do. Cluster analysis involves some art but I basically tried different groupings of players based on VPIP, volume, PFR, 3bet, bb/100, win$sd and so on. My aim at the time was to identity what a typical "winning TAG" looks like.

Your analysis of the data is pretty complete with regards to the question if there are long term winners.

The answer is yes, there are. In fact, your sample size suggests guys with 75% of guys with 40k+ hands actually have a true winrate that's pretty much breakeven after rakeback, with 25% of that group actually winning at a good clip.

If your goal is to show that there are no winners, or very few winners, I can't help you.

^^ thanks for the details! You pretty much answered my question: I wasn't sure about what method you used, but now I understand it better.

My goal is to know the truth as completely as possible. I set out to find whether there are winners, and if there are, how many are there and what their winrates are. So far I have a guess. I'm looking for techniques to make that guess more rigorous. The goal is to find out the truth.

I'm not sure cluster analysis is the way to go for me, but I'm really happy to know it's been done in the past and gave some results. I might go for it if I don't find another way.

More complicated is not better. Everything you've done already answers your question to some extent.

Your filtered for 40k+ hands, given the groupings in your original post, it looks like that accounts for 20 million out of about 55 million hands. Then given your analysis, it looks like players that play 40k+ hands have breakeven, even marginally+ "true" winrates after rakeback.

Think about that for a second. That means even if all sub 40k hand players are losers, we're looking at 30~40% of all hands played by breakeven or better players. These players account for ~0.4% of the overall player population in your data. If we restrict that to the players with the spike on the right, even assuming those players don't end up playing more hands overall (this is not unreasonable due to the dip at the end with extremes), we're looking at something like 8~9% of all hands played by solid winners and that 0.1% of players are solid winners. Note these are pessimistic given I am sure there are long term winners among the sub 40,000 hands population.

Your analysis honestly could have stopped there with regards to the question: "are there true winning players in PLO?" Answer: yes, there are. You may view 0.4% or 0.1% as too low and think more players should be able to win but clearly there are winners.

The numbers are unequivocal. The game is beatable, although by a small minority. Trying to convince Stars otherwise is a waste of time.

Their business model is actually quite simple. Deposits - withdrawls = gross profit eventually (since as long as it stays in the system, it eventually gets raked.) You're not going to convince them there are no winners when the same players make SNE and withdraw millions of dollars every year.

did grizy and eldodo get the nobel prize yet?

in before recruitment from isle of man

No, who should be recruited to IoM is me
Bear in mind that all regs 1) are free to quit poker for good (it's a very violent game, rather a toughness test than a competitive source of money), 2) will breathe easier when US regulations finally arrive, 3) are free to start their own poker site or buy an existing startup and show their sick management skills Let's believe that these times are the toughest for poker and they're here for us to sharpen our skills before the real money starts flowing in.

Hi

So with all this data checked what sort of rakeback deal would somebody need to actually be able to beat the PLO100 games for anything above being a marginal winner. 30% 50% 60%?

Regards

Define 'somebody'

How the **** have i only noticed this thread today? Need time to fully digest this properly....

Thanks for what your doing for the plo community guys, and the time your investing in this.

+1

I'm currently thinking in transitioning to PLO and find this extremely intersting....

Had a few questions eldodo, if you don't mind (probably I could find them in other threads but missing time to read them all)

- In terms of trying to find true WR, wouldn't be more efficient to use AIEV adjusted winnings ? looks to me StDev would be reduced a lot by doing that given how close equities run in PLO...

- What about using PLO50 and PLO200 data ? Obv we'd need to buy HH's , but I feel confident some kind of donation thread will get the job done quite quickly.

- Have you posted your report on the Stars meeting ? Somehow I can't find it. My understanding is that Stars provided data proving they are winners in PLO100, is that data (and more importantly that data's analysis available somewhere) ?

thxs !

Your rakeback function appears to be very conservative. For example it claims an SNE gets 57% rb when many SNEs are getting more, and most are continuing and getting 70%. Also it treats cash conversion rates for low raking players as much lower than what happens in reality (they actually cash it in for store or tourney tickets and get more value).

Also this 2.0x estimate probably needs to be reconsidered (the *2 in the code).

did i miss it too, eldodo has been mia for a while now

I think only joeri posted one.

jeah i noticed that too. I will send an email, i hope he is doing fine...

in b4 we learn he's actually been hired by stars.

what is with some reps doing good job before meeting and disappearing like a fart in the wind after the meeting?

Pizza and eyes afaik.

More got done before the meeting format and it got done faster. Plus the entire 2+2 community was involved at all stages. The meetings should be squashed as a format. But that will probably not happen because there are enough players hoping they will win the golden ticket and get to go to the Willy Wonka Factory next time.

I also think the average person doesn't know enough about non disclosure agreements. From what I've seen, several of the players who have gone have been almost scared crap-less to post anything at all after the meeting besides their trip reports. If you read some comments by Pokerstars Steve, he has "almost" overtly said nothing is getting posted by a player unless first cleared by Stars. Perceived or not, it seems Stars has some of these players by the ball sack.

The player meeting format is a failure.

It is also worth noting that before the player meeting format, we had 365 day a year access to PS reps. You guys remember those days??? But now everything by PS is, "oh we will discuss that at the player meeting that is months from now." Then after the last meeting, if I recall correctly, it was over a month before the trip reports were even posted. And even in that case it was mostly just comments by player reps while PS reps like Steve stayed mostly silent. And if the results of the player meeting are lame, the reply by PS is, "we will talk about it more at the next player meeting that is many many many months from now."

Lame ass crap.

We were better off when the entire 2+2 community had 365 day a year access to PS reps. The response to issues was faster and more genuine.

^this

The previous format on the forums, was transparent to the community.

Now, under the guise of a free trip and free beer, we've lost all transparency and Stars controls the agenda and dispersal of information.

I truly hope no one volunteers to goto the Oct meeting. The results of the last meeting were not worth the amount effort the community did to prepare for that meeting.

Some one will always volunteer

Interest is very low/non existant so far - I like it.

Would be great if someone made a thread with cliffs to what hapenned to Eldodo.

I mean, at this stage, anyone wanting to be elected without saying upfront he WONT sign anything with stars is either an idiot or just want to visit Isle of Man free of charge.

I haven't been in touch with eldodo since i last saw him. But when i last spoke with him he was full of plans what he was going to write in his report and what he was going to analyse and so on... The Stars NDA had nothing to do with his dissapearing. I guess we just don't know what happend. That's seems to be the cliff right now.

We have attempted to follow up with eldodo since the meetings to discuss results of some further analysis we agreed to do, and that he also planned to do independently and compare results. We have not heard back; I hope he is OK.

try giving him some monetary incentives