Assume hero and villain are 500BB deep. 5/10 PLO. Also assume villain is capable regular at these stakes.

Hero has AQ22
Hero straddles $20 on button. SB calls, BB calls, hero checks.

Flop ($60) KJT
BB bets $60. Hero raises to $240. SB folds, BB calls.

Turn ($540) Q
BB checks. Hero bets $500. BB calls

River ($1540):
River 1: KJTQ2 BB bets $750. Hero?
River 2: KJTQQ BB bets $750. Hero?

River 1 - Pot it
River 2 - Nitty but I fold.

For river 1, that was my initial reaction too, but this hand played out at King's Casino, and the person with the AQ22 elected to just call the river bet, which I found interesting:
https://www.twitch.tv/videos/399506980?t=01h33m49s

I like call:
- we do have showdown value (we win vs something like KsJJ) & nice pot odds
- he does check-calls his flushes most of the times
- we should be using our A high flush blocker much less often when we check in straddle (or bb) position, since it's the best pick for our opponent to call us
- we are betting for an isolation pre-flop with quite a lot AQXXss, especially that we're 500bb deep IP (which is a hand we want to represent when we do raise)
- he is capable of calling us rare times he bets his non-nut flushes

Hero is in position. It wasn't like hero checked and then repotted the river. When he is bet into after betting flop and turn and holds the A I agree it is most likely a bluff but raising wins if it is a bluff anyways and gets smaller flushes and the same straight to fold against most opponents. I'm always potting as played whether I have the nut flush or just the dry Ace.

just because someone plays midstakes on live stream doesn't mean they know what they are doing let alone being a capable player

it's a bunch of people clicking buttons

Hand 1 is a fold
Hand 2 i lean towards call orrrrrrr min raise if he can fold a chop


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well thats true, but in this case i think Jay is a really good decent player in live plo (dont know about online),
after my 1st trip to Rozadov i got the impression that live PLO and Online is totally diffrent games - which in online potting there with the As is what ill do 99\100 times, although live (and stream) things happening much more slowly, and pepole find it hard to lay down hands or even let other pepole bluff them - so mabye raising there with the As after represanting a s8 will sounds fishy live and will eventually induce a call from a flush ( which nicola is represanting).
in online you can multitable so its way easier to make the most profitable move when its time, in live you just do it and if it dosent work you have to sit back and wait for spots to take your money back, and soon as you notice session is over and you are heading to the room feel you want to die haahaha

i really dont know, im lack of skill when its about live PLO (im also a sheep online BTW)




thanks for the link!!

I raise river hand one. I don’t think i pot it but that sizing isn’t bad as your polar and probably have enough bluffs to justify that sizing. Really hard math problem to figure out sizing actually... I always figure exploitably a smaller sizing is better as most people fold here 100% even to a smaller sizing.

I lean to a fold hand 2... if I don’t have As I call river especially that small sizing is tempting but your blocking a ton of his bluffs. I imagine most villains are bluffing off a chop here a large % but I think q is a worse bluff card for him then k j t so you have a lot of queens full actually so it’s fine to fold

online i agree its a 100% raise (ok 99%) - but you think also live agaisnt this type of player? you watched the stream a little bit?

thanks

I didn’t watch the stream or know the players. What do you think the worst hand the villain calls the river pot raise with??? I could see him leveling himself into calling with 3 spade type hands but he really shouldn’t have any given the board and limping early so unless your description is way off I think he knows whatever he has is a bluff catcher and your going to have a hard time finding enough bluffs to even bluff an optimal amount let alone be able to overbluff. And you seem to never be bluffing here if your not turning this hand into a bluff so I don’t know how his decision could be easier.

If your playing in games where “pros” are sticking 400bb into a 150bb pot otr with 3rd/4th nut flushes against incredibly strong lines let me know I’ll hop on a plane

i just try to find the balance between online and live - which i found out is totally different
anyway - nicola was up 6K in 30minutes and was mannage the spew it 30 min later so i got the feeling that he won't fold a flush after betting on river


p.s
also because Jay has been showed some high level PLO live and dominated everytime he was live - which make's him defently capable to bluffing there to avoid a chop


thanks for the answer

The differing reads are probably why we're coming to different conclusions. It's interesting to think about though... I think the difference between online and live is that player tendencies vary so much.

A lot of live play is defining peoples strategies accurately and quickly as they vary A LOT more then online and you get a lot less information. In online peoples strategies are usually overall similar and then there are certain situations which you can recognize divergences and exploit usually using stats from your hud more then guessing player tendencies based off limited experiences.

nice point of view. i agree
Also, i think that grinding online allowed you to multi-tabling and so your hand selective (especially when you get pumped up) usually will start to be more "wider" because i think this is how humans work. sure its not optimal - but it is what happened in most cases

EDIT :
Most say im a low-medium stack player - so it might be diffrent in online high stakes



BTW about this hand i just watched the stream a little bit and i think i know why Jay didnt went for a raise bluff on the river with the bloker - it seems like Nicola has been pretty tilted and went for river bets 3 times in a row (watch it) when board texture has change - so i think that actually against this player in this situation specificlly - river raise will be -ev because he will never fold a flush there considaring the hand action which Jay represent alot of brodway st8

any thoughts guys?