Hi,

My name is Tal, I live in St. Louis, though just til December. I'm a local semi-pro here, some 2+2ers know me IRL. I posted my online graphs in BBV.

I am willing to try the Urubu challenge. 45 days, 500K hands, any profit.
I am American but am willing to leave the country in a few months if needed to get access to Pokerstars.
I am looking for any rules, advice, guidelines, suggestions, and odds.
Thanks,
Tal

Have you ever played on stars before? If so, what is your screen name?

I believe my screen name was brewersfan1. I did play a lot a few years before Black Friday but not much leading up to it.

what stakes do you play live ?

have you ever 24 tabled for over an hour ?

will you be ok with a webcam ?

how much action do you want ?

same odds as urubu ?

what drugs are you on ?

1-2-5 or 5-5 PLO: 90%
1-2, 1-3, 5-10 NL: 9%
5-10 PLO: 1%
20-40 PLO: Once
25-25 PLO: Once
25/50/25 NL/PLO: Once

No, but probably 15.

Yes

I'd like to book $50K on myself but I'd like to believe others in St. Louis will put money on me.

ChicagoJoey already offered max bet at 5:1. I'd like better.

Caffeine, Cymbalta (Duloxetine), and one I don't care to mention publicly.

Considering all your graphs you've shown us which had very low volume over quite an extended period of time, and considering you "probably 15 tabled for over an hour", what makes you think you can do this?

If all this checks out, i'll bet against

I did the math and know it's doable if Pokerstars can provide enough games around the clock.

I think you will get all the action you want at a very good price. If you are serious about doing this bet, start getting ready to move out of the country ASAP so you can start the bet.

I am waiting on the final step of naturalization (oath), then I will get a passport and find a friend in Canada. Looking forward to it.

In the meantime I'm ready to book action if some is offered, contingent on an attempt being made of course.

But this is only like 12k hands per day, this is very easy and somewhat normal and should not strain your winrate.

11,111, and "making $0.01 or more" is not the concerning part of the bet.

reserve all the action to me please

If this is judged by someone I trust I'll bet against.

Something doesn't seem right here. Omaha Donk plays almost exclusively 1-2-5 and 5-5 live or lower and wants to put up 50k on himself that he can do this when he hasn't ever played more than a dozen or so tables at a time for more than an hour? Maybe this is the best value bet I've ever laid my eyes on, but it seems like... "if it sounds too good to be true it probably is..."

I just don't see omaha donk putting up what must be a huge chunk of his roll on a prop bet where the real line is probably 10/1 or worse against. Based on the information he's given alone the true odds are probably 100/1 or more against... I just don't see how there isn't some missing information or some angle. Omahadonk just ran some numbers, decided it was possible, and decided to put up 50k to give it a shot? Call me a skeptic but I'm interested to see how this all pans out.

Yup gotta agree, if the provided information is complete he should be drawing v slim to dead

the vpn part almost made it seem like a fairly decent troll attempt, but at this point im not sure any more.

would be very surprised to see the bet ever happen

It's one of two things:

-He is delusional
-He knows something we don't.

omahadonk, if you want this bet to pick up you need to be way more specific. You provided us with a graph that runs over the course of 12 years during which you've played 150k hands or so. And now you want to try and play 500k hands in a month.
You have to realise how that can sound weird to some.

Also, you havn't been clear about the odds you wanted. Joey offered you 5 to 1 when you said you could attempt this bet from USA with VPN (some more sketchy stuff which will deter quite a lot of bettors). He was obv joking, and would not have offered that much if you'd attempted the bet say from Canada. But you seem to indicate that you want more than 5 to 1?

Finally you havn't been clear about the rules of the bet at all. You should go look for urubu's rules and use it here for your bet.

I hope that helps you putting this bet on track because as it is now, this will never fly. Good luck.

From 2003-2014 I played several million hands. I only graphed what I had available. I have definitely played thousands of hours of 8-12 tables and can easily add a few more.

This bet combines some of my best skills - I think I was tailor made for it and am willing to give it a shot. If I fail as everyone expects, I fail, but it won't be because I give up early.

I'll go through the Urubu rules and post the ones that seem necessary.

As for odds - I am waiting for offers. I realize ChicagoJoey hasn't made an offer since I said I might leave the country instead of VPN.

Please don't do a VPN.

i bet against full amount

250k at least, no problem

if this is real, OP will get all the action he wants

the real question is what pokerstars account has OP been playing on past few years

^this
I want to bet against this prbly too, but my spider senses are alerted

FWIW,

I don't know OP well enough to vouch for him, but I do recall an incident in a live PLO game, involving him, where another player questioned his integrity on some trivial matter and Tal seemed legitimately offended (and continues to let the guy know it every time he sees him). I would be very surprised to hear he's trying any kind of angle here.

I believe that he really thinks he can do it. I don't.

I'll probably take some action against if this goes down. (Sorry Tal!)