clearly he is amazing at plo and im not taking anything away from him, but just wondering if this is even remotely possible by anyone these days? did he just happen to hit plo at the perfect time?

from march this year.
its about the same winrate.

i guess its not about hittin plo at the perfect time, its more about hittin in plo at the perfect time

just seems odd to not have bigger downswings even if you played perfect. im jelly.

variance is smaller the bigger your edge is.
thats like ProbTh 101

I remember him saying in his well that he min 3-bet 40% of the time HU.

I was confused

In which case his statement is basically equivalent to saying 'i'm surprised he won at such a high rate'

link tow ell?

actually "its odd to have such a high win rate even if you play perfect" which is obv lol

I can post a similar graph.

Just give me an hour

i would def trade ur roll for 20m w ur avy fwiw

That's Grundy's as well, right?

whats it like to run +aiev?

And ProbTh 102 is "You don't understand what variance means"

and fwiw it's quite the contrary, usually the biggest winners have higher than avarage variance.

its grundy. pic taken from his blog . Link

fun fact: so is yours

bigger winners dont have bigger variance.
variance per se has nothing to do with the ev

three examples:
http://easycalculation.com/statistic...-deviation.php

Example 1)
60,35,0,-20,20,40,30,10,40,0
Mean 21.5 std. derivation: 24

Example 2)
40,15,-20,-40,0,20,10,-10,20,-20
Mean 1.5, std derivation 24

Example 3)
160,135,100,80,120,140,130,110,140,100
Mean 121.5 std. derivation 24

E1,E2 and E3 have all the same variance, but E1 prolly cares less about variance then E2 but more then E3, who prolly dont give a **** because its hardly recognisable that there is any variance at all.

variance is an absolute value and therefor decreases in terms of percentage of your mean the bigger your edge.

so let me rephrase my post:
fmp.
but if youre being a dick, at least try to get it right yourself.

The only reason your variance is smaller with a higher win rate is because the ceiling/floor of what you can win/lose each hand is the same whether you're a winning or losing player. Though there can be an argument that the most optimal way to play is an inherently high variance style.

Think of it this way -

If you play 100BBs deep every hand, and your winrate is 100BBs every hand, you HAVE to win every singly hand in order to maintain that winrate; your variance is zero.

Likewise, if you lose 100BBs every single hand and you only play 100BBs deep, you HAVE to lose a stack every hand so your variance in zero.

If you assume the amount won/lost per hand is normally distributed, then the closer the mean (winrate) is to the respective ceiling/floor (IE, stack depth), then the lower the variance is (all other things being equal). In this way, a player with 0 EV can achieve the highest level of variance.

Generally, this effect is very very small when you consider players winning between 0-3BB/100 hands, but when you consider Ben's graph it probably has a big effect.

However, I think the style of play is probably the biggest impact of how high your variance is for players with winrates in the same ballpark.

who is this guy? whats his stars name?

I played him HU on FTP a bunch and thought he was quite good/ tough.

here

wow so few hands over 4 years.

dunno how/where he still gets a gragh like that this year....

lol i am pretty sure he makes these graphs up to a certain degree . its really easy if u just purge out some losers.

My plo graph last 12ish months

http://imageshack.us/f/155/grafka.jpg

Looks like he's even better than Jose.

Mine?


Btw. How do i make the pic go in the thread instead of link?

really? i played him hu and nothing really stuck out as much as him being the fabled ben grundy. he seemed average hu and did some weird things (3b less than pot, didn't buy in full)

in 6m he'd generally play really short sessions

agree w doorbread. imo grundy is very overrated.

his graph tells me ''damn, id be VERY rich if i started playing plo in 2007''.

I don't know anything about the guy as a player, but its certainly possible that that graph is not doctored IMO.