I hate to say this Schwein, but I think you may be barking up the wrong tree with your analysis of "flop fold" numbers. It's clear that the suspected botters are playing radically differently to regs in some spots, but it appears you are now crediting them with "perfect play".
Theories like "a perfect player will have a bet size sensitivity on flop around 1" or "Fedor knows the exact rank of his hand on every possible flop" strike me as faintly ludicrous. (I'd explain why in detail, but I don't want to derail the thread with a long discussion about GTO solutions).

FWIW, based on the strong correlations you've already shown, I strongly suspect the alleged botters are using software aids (they might even have access to a fairly primitive PLO 'equivalent' of Snowie), but they aren't playing "perfectly". They are apparently just playing closer to optimally than most regs.

Once again, I thank you for your work. I just hope you don't get too carried away with the idea of finding one specific stat that solves the whole mystery, because I don't think that's possible. I think you've already provided enough to convince most people that there are clear links between the accounts in question.

Arty, I am providing screenshots for the botters and sometimes my own interpretation of why they do the stuff they do. The screenshots are very accurate and generated from a huge DB, my interpretation might be wrong sometimes and is mostly speculation on my part. The numbers I have posted here http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=1341 or here http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=1388 clearly show that they can distinguish between 20%, 30%, 40% of range on flop. I dont think they fold 30% of hands at random vs a 60% pot size Cbet, right?

Most winning players tend to fold the worst hands to Cbet and call or raise with the better ones. Sound reasonable again, right? To fold 20% of hands against one sizing and 30% against another sizing someone has to able to clearly tell the difference between the bottom 20% of hands on a given flop and the bottom 30%. Thats why I think they know the rank of hands on flop precisely.

There is commercial software PPT that gives the rank of a hand preflop. I dont know any software that does it for postflop but its possible to code it. For example we can take 100 hands from heroes range at random, calculate their equity on flop vs villians perceived range. Then calculate the equity of heroes actual hand and see how it ranks compared to the 100 random hands from heroes range. If it ranks bottom 18 percentile and we want told bottom 20% of hands then its a fold.
Nothing ludicrous about my claim that they can/have to know the precise rank of a hand on flop. Please dont tell me that my solution for finding the rank of a hand on flop is not very efficient. I know that it isnt but just wanted to show that it can be done.

I am glad you feel that I have provided enough evidence, I also feel this way.

Fast forward 3 years...



I hope you dont get too carried away with the idea that you know what you are talking about and that Schwein doesnt.

Keep up the good work Schwein.

@SeaKing

you don't need to go back 3 years... 12 hours ago are enough



I was pretty sure Arty didn't have a clue about anything,ty to confirm that... and now I have another guy on a ignore list .

C'mon guys. Stop derailing.

lol this guys need a bot.

It's not derailing imo.
In this thread 90%+ posts are noise and users could have hard time figure out who is posting insightful things from who doesn't have a clue but keep posting random BS.

lol i just realized the player im down most against is in fact susaanin

Schwein, thank you and please keep the great work.

All bot accounts are unable to receive transfers now.

Weird some were unfrozen for a while... who knows, maybe it was some sort of honeypot move from Stars.

All regs at those games should consider donating 1 buy-in to schwein after their next good PLO session. If it weren't for him, tens of thousands of dollars would have be sucked out of the ecosystem already since one month ago and the trend would have continued, month by month, as it has been for God knows how long.

I'm just saying...

well seems like they told them " Sry u gtg, we can't prove it 100% but we donjon want ya anymore, so cash out all your $ and after goodbye!?"

Possible. The weirdness comes there was like 4 accounts playing after being unfrozen but with a lot smaller volume than before. This makes me think it's a tarp.

or just testing new software updates to their program

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NETKMsc4_eg

jokes

Schwein-

Can you please make an alias of the [suspected] bot accounts and post their AIEV graphs. Please do it for each site and then one global alias. This could be an extremely important piece of evidence as far as whether or not they are colluding.

the non showdown winnings should be unusually high too.

if you wanted to go super far you'd have to do it when 2 or more bots are at the same table and compare it to when just one is there. seems like a lot of work.

The nonSD winnings where above average for most of the bots.

Also the WWSF where extremely high for all accounts compared to the average of some other midstakes crushers (>2% is a lot).

Both are heavy indicators. I mean, reverse the case, how would you programme a bot that is a better handreader than the best midstakes players out there? That requires a hell of an hardcore algorithm

Fedors graph might be misleading though. It seems like many of the other bot accounts dumped their winnings to him. (Unless PTR data is completely random, some binary examples about chip dumping to him though.)

I opened thread about iPoker PLO bots late 2014 - on iPoker there was certainly something fishy going on and there's nothing like this on Stars:

are these players still able to play at iPoker?

No refunds or responses from iPoker and the bots continued to play there for some time. Have no idea what is the situation now.

At the time there was 6 account playing plo 50 with identical stats and timings.
(That graph had more accounts with similar stats.)

From largest networks iPoker seems to tolerate botting the most and there was really worrying EV-all-in disparity between players with "botty" stats and players with "legit" stats.

None of them play there now.

Last one to disappear was F*********7, who vanished suddenly in early April - after putting in beastly hours day in, day out.

No word or refunds from iPoker though, which doesn't surprise me sadly.

EDIT: Would be interesting for someone with the relevant expertise to check again, see if the games are clear now or if they are just playing under alts. Given the PS situation though, the chances of iPoker games being bot riddled is sky high.

Old saying goes :

If you can't spot the bot on iPoker in your first half hour at the table, then you ARE the bot.

gtfo with ur script