dynamics:

we were playing over two hours and match has been pretty aggro. i was running over him and was just showing down the nuts all the time so villain might be tilted but seemed to play pretty solid when stacks got bigger again.

reads:

villain was aggro stealing and barrlingmway more then i did so he should give me credit for my x/r range otf as i wasnt going crazy the last 30min. i was also folding a lot to reraises and playing pretty nitty with stats as 69/47 3b:26 (althought less then 20% since we got deeper then 150bb)
he pulled one big 3bar bluff (150bb) with nut blockers but i called him pretty quickly with rivered 2p.



i am not playing to much plo so would be interessted in what is the bottom calling range of you guys in this spot? Are folding A9xx?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $2/$4 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $1,429.74 (357.4 bb)
Hero (BB): $2,126.43 (531.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J 5 5 J
SB raises to $12, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($24) J A 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $14, Hero raises to $65.50, SB raises to $188, Hero calls $122.50

Turn: ($400) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $288, Hero calls $288

River: ($976) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $941.74 and is all-in, Hero

imo, Your hand is the top of your range and villain put you on the exact hand, Js full here, and still he was betting big. I don't see how he would 3b otf oop with anything less than set here, that means either 99, AA. Even if he has a wrap in his 3b range, he would had slowed down at turn when board paired.

I would call flop but fold turn. Not sure if that's a leak?

so you just calling with 2nd nuts+?

isnt there a lot of space to bluff as people fold way to much of there toprange in plo? i often get that feeling...

i would snap call

what hand would tank with?

Considering your 3bet is high, if villain has AQTx or even Axxx it would be a good spot to go crazy sometimes, knowing your range is capped.
And given you seemed to be a nit overall, it would be a good play vs you.

If villain is capable of that or not is a different story but I'd guess yes.

3bet pre

Sure seems to be.

I don't see how you can call flop and then fold later. Either fold flop, jam flop, or call down. I'm calling down given description.

As far as A9 vs JJ, it's the same hand vs his extremely polarized range. He either has AA, 99, or a busted draw. I think he's checking back hands like A9 and J9 (with straight draw) on the river.

I think the bottom of his busted draw range is AK so 9222 and JJ have the same value.

I don't play much PLO but pretty sure saying A9 is the same isn't correct cos were blocking the quad hands plus blockering his AA so seems A9 is actually an easier call no?!?!

not really, JJxx > A9xx is my expert analysis

Good points, you are definitely right. Funny how in poker it's sometimes better to have a worse absolute hand.

Given the action pre call

Yep, agree with you there. Either fold flop or call down.

But not sure I am convinced if villain would 3/4 turn then bet pot river. Surely hero's range must be trip9/FH+ after calling turn right? would you still bluff full pot at river with busted draw? I meant it could, but his range would weight heavily towards value hands then bluff.

yo if villain is a reg he's got aa/99 against some guy chk / potting always with those stats always

"fold flop or call river" logic is pretty far off imo. i dont think hes bluffing often at all, the only hand he might be valuecutting himself with is A9 and the only A9 he might 3b flop with is AJ9, AQT9, AT98 (and none of those three anywhere near all of the time). stacks are also deep enough that you have decent amount of AA combos in your pf flatting range so hes potting vs a range that is both clearly strong and uncapped enough to deter kamikaze bluffs, his own flop range has very little air in it and that air is frequently slowing down by the river. seems a lot like hes pretty nutted and figures you often have a fullhouse and people dont fold fullhouses so hes going for max value.

These are all reasons to fold flop.
Are you call-call-fold or call-fold?

yo what he does is different how villain will construct his range will have more air against someone who plays normally. i'm not trying to berate op its just most players stats / sizing would be way different so the hand is completely different. i can see a lot of players just not having the hootspa to do this as a bluff once you flat ott though

It seems as if his range really is either AA or a missed wrap. Knowing his 3 barreling % here is key in making a big call IMO. If he has a tighter 3 barrel range I think you're against AA almost always. I don't think he is looking to 3 bet 3 pair on this flop very often, and I think there is a small chance he could be 3 barrel bluffing to rep AA since our range is capped here. I am not sure about flatting the flop? It seems to me that we are inducing a bluff at this point, so we need to call river here a certain amount of the time.

Yea this. With A9xx you don't block JJ ldo

no, they arent. my point was that the fold flop or call riv line of thought implies that his flop c/r and river barrel ranges are identical, which i dont think they are. on the flop i think he can have some KQT+pair, top two+gutter and even some lesser bluffy stuff hes going a little crazy with. on the river, we pretty clearly have a strong value hand and if he was semibluffing a wrap/going a little crazy with whatever, then since he blocks the already limited range we have that isnt trips+, an already poor spot to bluff becomes practically suicidal. obv all that presupposes a certain amount of logical thought and online theres always the 5% randomness factor to consider, but i think generally speaking that portion of his range that 3bet flop but needs to bluff riv in order to win the pot would be pretty disinclined to do so.
put more simply, if oppt 3bet non AA/99/A9 on the flop and barreled it on the turn, our range before we call was strong value hands and strong draws (which he sometimes blocks). once we call, we rarely have a draw, so his river bet is into a range of almost exclusively strong value hands. since its reasonable to assume he wont often make that mistake, it follows that his riv range is very rich in combos of those three hands, two of which beat us, and one of which is only in his range to a limited extent because he wont be 3betting very many combos of it on the flop.

you need 33% to call, and there seem to be 3,869 combos of AA,99 that beat you. im not sure if he plays all of them in this way, but for the sake of simplicity, at least to begin with, lets say he does. So there need to be 1935 hands in his non AA,99 betting range to justify a call. If I'm exceptionally generous (pretty much to the point of innacuracy) in including A9 combos he might 3bet flop with, [AJ9!RR,AKQ9,AQT9,AKT9,AT98,AT97,AQ98,AKK9,AQQ9,ATT 9,A9!RR:ddss,A9!RR:ddcc,A9!RR:sscc] amounts to 1,680 combos. Add in my personal assumption that in any given big pot situation, 5% of the time your oppt will show up with a completely unexpected and frequently nonsensical hand and, under pretty favourable conditions, calling seems pretty close to neutral ev.

if you refine your assumptions to accomodate information like - oppt wont always 3bet 99 otf and would prob be less likely to pot riv with it since it significantly weakens your range, oppt will not in reality 3bet anywhere near that wide a range of A9 combos otf, you might get to something like this.

assume he both 3bets flop and pots riv with 30% of his 99 combos (297 combos) and all of his AA (2,882 combos). assume his flop 3b A9 range looks more like [AJ9!RR,AKQ9,AQT9] which amounts to 894 combos. That totals 3,179 combos that beat you, and 894 combos of value hands that dont. In order to call, you need 695 more hand combos (~14pc of total riv betting range) of other stuff you beat, and i think thats going to be a pretty big stretch.

you're so dreamy

Valid: I agree with your basic assumptions and that he's suicide bluffing if he continues.

However, I have some opponents online who will NEVER check the river after bluffing the turn. He also could have gotten here with some 9x, 9J, 9A, and figure checking would be silly now. These players all fit OP's villain description.

He also knows we're weighted away from AA (pf action) and can easily level ourselves into a fold.

It's heads up, he's aggro, villain is tilted. I'm calling.

Since my 2 favorite posters (DB and VN) are here, can I get your thoughts on this one:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...72&postcount=1

"Fold flop or call river" sentiment is ridiculous. Sizing on river in the face of a lot of strength from us massively changes villain's range, and makes him about 10% as likely to be bluffing as he was before. I think calling to the river and then folding is a good line.

y, whatever wall of text i might come up with enumerating this combo and that combo and this theory and that, if game dynamics are such that during this period in time it feels to me like his head is fried/hes lost his mind etc then everything else gets thrown out and hands much lower down than JJ become trivial calls. i interpreted the dynamics from the op as being that oppt had been on tilt for a period but had regained enough control to discount the "we've been playing a while my head is fuzzy this pot got big i cant stand to let him run me over again im jamming" factor. (and its worth noting btw that if villain is semi tricky/smart, his being on tilt before this hand but not during AND having gotten caught riv bluffing during that time can make this more of a fold rather than less). obv thats something thats impossible to gauge unless youre ingame.

This is an interesting discussion in and of itself. I am someone who uses perceived tilt (and plays it up live frequently) to my advantage. I rarely actually tilt and don't think that those who do have this type of self control or self awareness.

And yes, you are right, OP stated that villain was pretty much untilted.

BTW as far as exploitation, with hero 3b 20%, couldn't villain take down every pot where AA is the effective nuts? I hate being at the top of our range and folding to aggression, though I suppose calling and seeing the obvious AA is just as silly.