hu plo 1k making a toppish 2- pair on turn and getting ch/shoved in 3bp: - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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hu plo 1k making a toppish 2- pair on turn and getting ch/shoved in 3bp:

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12-16-2011 , 12:32 PM

ganesch

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 203

* did have 2 pair since the flop...*

only reads so far are villain is very aggro and defending too much oop. Rest seems fine w like 20% 3b and c betting a lot...

i think it is reaaaaly hard to assemble him a good c/R turn range here. Plz give me input for potential ranges i should assemble him... on average i'd say we have maybe between 25% - 37% Equity, depending on his tendencies....

Poker Stars, $5/$10 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #11320282

Hero (SB): $1,989.50 (199 bb)
BB: $1,000 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J

Hero raises to $20, BB raises to $60, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($120) K

(2 players)
BB bets $80, Hero calls $80

Turn: ($280) 6

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $180, BB raises to $819.50

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

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12-17-2011 , 01:31 PM

xyz3

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 144

I think you have to call against this guy, but not be happy about it at all. I think his range could include OESD+NFD, wrap+FD as bluffs and KK**,KQ** for value. He probably just bets with his AhA*h*, twopair and wrap+NFD.

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12-17-2011 , 10:13 PM

ship

adept

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 852

Quote:

Originally Posted by ganesch

Hero raises to $20, BB raises to $60, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($120) K

(2 players)
BB bets $80, Hero calls $80

Turn: ($280) 6

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $180, BB raises to $819.50

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

GRUNCH --

How on earth is this 'topish 2p' first and foremost.
He's got combo draws like always here IMO, ie AA and hearts, AKJ with hearts some broadway wraps. He continues with a naked set probably always Ott unless I've been floating a ton. If he has a set he's probably also got hearts or maybe JT type deal.

Think it's a call but I'm on a plane can't do math

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12-18-2011 , 02:17 AM

ganesch

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 203

how would you call this 2 pair, which has the top card in it? i did not write top2

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12-19-2011 , 09:18 AM

zxjaexz

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,369

i'd check turn as played i'd call with reads.

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12-19-2011 , 10:20 AM

CityHunter

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 514

Quote:

Originally Posted by zxjaexz

i'd check turn as played i'd call with reads.

I like it. Why u bet that good hand if u wanna fold to a raise?

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12-19-2011 , 10:21 AM

xaxa

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,501

Quote:

Originally Posted by ganesch

how would you call this 2 pair, which has the top card in it? i did not write top2

Top & Bottom?

Not playing HU much nor these stakes..

but ppt is a gd friend to run some numbers.
I'de c/r a ton of my hands in villains spot.. AhKhxx kqxx JhThxx 789x + hearts
especially bc this turn is a total blank and u might float alot.

i might call it off and punch myself seeing me total dominated by kq + hearts

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12-19-2011 , 06:37 PM

ship

adept

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 852

agree with all above posts and even feel more strongly about the fact that he doesn't have all that many full blown made made hands.

i think the problem comes where our made hand is pretty crappy and doesn't even do all that well vs lots of his combo / semi bluffs equity wise, which might push it towards a fold (lolnit i know) but im not so sure i wanna fold. plus even if you call and are behind / he sucks out, he's probably not gonna run this one as a bluff/semi bluff at all in the near future so if the spot ever comes up again you can snap fold an actual top 2 ( ;] ) / bottom set cause he can't be bluffing cause he' knows you're not folding naked 2p etc.

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12-20-2011 , 03:08 AM

WhateverSon

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 4,304

foldfoldfold

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12-20-2011 , 03:37 AM

#10

tizzl

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,121

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhateverSon

foldfoldfold

Wanna say why u think so

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12-20-2011 , 04:00 AM

#11

AB_illusive

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 574

Im getting it in.

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12-20-2011 , 07:16 PM

#12

ws1988

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 34

this seems like a grey area to me, completely dependent on your opponent

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12-20-2011 , 07:29 PM

#13

joeri

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 1,238

I think your sizing is off. I either bet close to pot or check this draw heavy board.

The situation as it is, i'm allin. You have close to the top of your range and villains line screams draw. If you have strong enough read to fold here, you prob should have just checked the turn.

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12-20-2011 , 08:03 PM

#14

Hazardous Blount

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 264

+1 to folding

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12-21-2011 , 07:42 AM

#15

jj12

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 2,396

I'd call due to the odds being around 33%, its an unpleasant spot though if there were slightly more money left I'd def fold. Turn is def bet imo.

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12-21-2011 , 01:41 PM

#16

praios

banned

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,034

this sucks flip a coin and do that ever you want

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12-21-2011 , 04:51 PM

#17

Unknown Soldier

Soulja Boy

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 12,238

Quote:

Originally Posted by praios

this sucks flip a coin and do that ever you want

=call

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12-22-2011 , 05:28 AM

#18

thatpfunk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 8,552

good hand to post.

i was pretty surprised at how close this was and how drastically it swings once he starts doing this with any sort of better made hands. i think CRs here are weighted heavily towards draws trying to maximize FE, but it is still a super close spot that highlights the importance of having a decent read on the players tendencies.

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12-25-2011 , 04:41 AM

#19

ganesch

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 203

yeah. i also think it is super close. as ppl said, my sizing was probably off... BUT when i pot these turns, i almost never see ppl ch/ shove light but rather just ch/ call w many draws + made hands. so when i do get shoved i am really not too happy.. on the other hand, we have so much money in then already, that we still gotta call.

did anybody run the numbers w maybe 2 different ranges?

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12-25-2011 , 11:49 AM

#20

Hoopster81

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 7,277

Betting turn with this hand and not knowing beforehand how you are responding to this situation is not good IMO and is possibly indicitive of a larger leak

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12-25-2011 , 12:32 PM

#21

iggymcfly

runs good at HORSE

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 26,042

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhateverSon

foldfoldfold

This. You're looking at either KQ or K6 a ton here. Occasionally it will be Q6 or top pair + combo draw, but we're drawing to two outs a lot more often than not.

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12-26-2011 , 07:37 AM

#22

lifeisgood111

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 84

Does people really start to raise on the turn, and on such an harmless card to increase the fold equity? That card obv doesnt hurt the valuerange from the flop that much. From my experince this play has always been indicative of a made hand waiting for a clean turn.

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12-26-2011 , 07:54 AM

#23

Doorbread

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 9,750

in what world did this become anything but a call? also sizing is fine unless you always wanna be checking this turn? o_O

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12-26-2011 , 09:17 AM

#24

Jeff W

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 9,556

I think it's instructive to analyze your own range here. What % of your range can call once you've bet? Villain doesn't really need you to fold a big% of your range to make semi-bluffing profitable. For example: A hand with 30% equity against your calling range needs 36% fold equity to breakeven compared to folding*.

Code:

EV(Fold)=EV(Raise)
-140=P(F)320+(1-P[F])(-1000*.7+1000*.3)
320P(F)-400(1-P[F])=-140
320P-400+400P=-140
P=260/720
P(F)=.361

Last edited by Jeff W; 12-26-2011 at 09:30 AM.

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12-26-2011 , 12:31 PM

#25

WhateverSon

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 4,304

After reviewing its super close so I think pot/calling turn is the best play. If your betting 180 OTT it has to be because your comfortable b/f here vs the right opponent

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