HJ is a rec player with limited experience playing PLO. UTG is an assumed reg while SB is an unknown. Action was fast when the game was short, but slowed as more players sat in. This was the first "big hand" when the table filled up.

5/10. 9 handed.

SB - 990
UTG - 1500~
HJ - 1300~

UTG opens to 35
3 callers
HJ calls with AJJ3
SB calls
BB calls

Flop was 8KQ

UTG bets 245
HJ calls
SB calls

Turn was 2

UTG bets 980
HJ folds
SB calls and is all in for 700~ with AATQ
UTG shows 7KKQ

River was T

Help with analysis greatly appreciated.

Looks to me like you have 25-33% equity and have to call off 2-1. I dont mind the fold for your stack. The two is just a complete blank given the board...

If river was pot-bet and called by the sb in front of you (ie, you were last to act), i would probably call if in gamble mode. even this is probably a bad call or even for the pot odds.

Analysis of hand- best hand is a set on turn, so your draws will beat utg if it hits and the board does not pair. I would not expect a set of jjs to be good or collecting the whole pot if a straight hits. Also, I would not expect to have all flush draw outs wih a third caller. You have the key card, js for the straight flush blocker/draw.

Also - unless some other people called pre, utg can only bet 140ish on the flop, not 245.

Kind of hard to follow the pot size but it looks like you need 26 or 27 percent equity to justify the call, which you should have.

Pre there is only $140 in the pot. Anyway assuming there is $980 in the pot you have ten outs getting 2:1, when you are 3.4:1 against. There are some implied odds and it might go three way on the turn. but that is not enough to justify the call.

Its 7way to the flop the way I understand it.

Also it's not 980, another player is all in for 700.

I apologize for the confusion.

There were 7 players (UTG raiser + 6 callers) seeing the flop, so 35 * 7 = 245

Then it was 3 ways to the turn (blinds check, UTG bets 245, 3x folds, HJ calls, SB calls, BB folds), 245 * 4 = 980

Action on the turn was SB checks, UTG bets 980, HJ folds, SB goes all in for less

According to pro poker tools, on the turn HJ had 25%

Questions:

Pre flop, had HJ been next to act (no callers in between) was 3betting an option?

HJ's hand does not seem to fare well multi way, but given the action, was calling the best play? Hope to flop strong like set + flush draw?

I am not three betting ajj3 preflop in any spot, and never with this many callers. While in theory you are always behind if you do three bet jjxx, here you are actually behind both vs hands.

I dont think you can play it any different. Nut flush draw And a gutshot broadway draw is a strong flop for you.

Top set Just got lucky with the complete blank of a turn and priced you out of a call.

That player acts after hero.

OTT you're getting immediate 2:1 odds (33% equity needed) which is a bit short based on some quick Sims I did, but you can almost guarantee implied pot odds from SB, who will only need 23% equity to call all in after you call. So with those implied pot odds you need ~ 27% equity which would make calling pretty close to break even if not slightly winning even if you add in a few combos of like AJTx on top of KK, QQ, KQ type value hands it's still barely winning, practically break even still. Don't expect much in the way of implied odds villain probably won't be putting the rest in on spade rivers, will likely put it in on T river however, but with that said i wouldn't consider a small amount of implied odds to sway the decision far enough to make this a fistpump call.

Tl;dr basically Breakeven to call turn, flick it in if you're ok with riding the variance train, just let it go if you believe you can preserve your stack and push some EV in better spots.

Even the tightest of villains will probably stack off on a spade river with top set, getting 80:1, but I agree we shouldn't rely too heavily on implied odds as we will only have $40 behind after calling the turn bet.

Whoops didn't notice how short hero for some reason thought hero and UTG were playing effective.

If SB folds, HJ then hero does not have the required 33% equity to call PSB OTT (24% vs. KKxx).

If SB calls, it seems highly likely he has a Ten (only ~22% of AJ/AT/JT are AJ?) and/or ss** and which case HJ would only have ~22% equity instead of the necessary ~27%.

Seems like a solid fold to me.

Gutter+fd has abooout 25% equity vs a set on the turn. It's a nice rule/thing to know/remember. This ofc means that if someone shoves turn for a PSB you have to fold. It also helps to figure out how much money needs to be behind to make the call profitable (also assuming you would get paid off when you hit)

Now that it's actually two people who put the money in you do get immediate odds to call, but it's hard to make good assumptions about the other callers range. What he has will determine if your call prints money or burns it really

So call if you're stuck and fold if you're up

edit: I re-read the HH now and see that the other caller acts behind hero. That complicates it. But fold I guess