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Old 05-08-2021, 12:10 PM   #1
TomCollins
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Deep against a maniac with top set

Playing 6 handed. New player sat down who has been very aggressive, calling light, but also has been hitting his hands. His first hand I had bottom 2 pair and I got it all in against him and boated up and was good and stacked him, but he has rebought for $300, doubled up 4 times, and is sitting on a $2400 stack. I have $1200 to start the hand.

Game is $1/2 5 to go, but I straddle for $10.

Wild player limps on button. Decent player limps in BB, I have KKc8c2c. I pot to $40, both call.

Pot $125

Flop: Ks Ts 3c

I have $1160 behind, I want to build a pot, and 3 pot sized bets gets me all in, so I want to make sure I get money in now. I debated checkraising but being the raiser, it's very easy for him to check behind, although this guy is the type of player who might spaz bet to steal with nothing. On the other hand, if I bet, he might spaz raise me too with nothing.

BB checks
I lead for $100
Wild player calls
BB folds

Post: $325

Turn: Jc

Picked up the flush draw but Q9 And AQ got there. I don't think he had 2 pair or a straight on the flop, so I'm a bit concerned. If I pot again, I think he can put a lot of pressure on me and that sucks, and he might fold hands I want to call. So I check. He pots $325. Calling leaves me with $740 behind.

I count 13 outs if I'm behind (and he doesn't have Ax clubs).
Horrible rivers that I'm likely folding to are any non-paired spade (11 of them), any non-club ace (3), any non-club Q (3), any non-club 9 (3).

What's my river plan here? Given this player is aggressive, I can expect him to bet a lot. He'll probably check behind straights where I improve, but bluff when he's on a missed draw. He'll call straights when I improve some high percentage of the time, but fold the bluffs when I bet.

I considered jamming so that he would call with draws and straights as well as two pair hands, to maximize value on the river.


Q1) Call or jam?

Q2) What do we do on the river in each case of neutral river, improvement, and bad river?
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Old 05-08-2021, 02:51 PM   #2
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

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I count 13 outs if I'm behind (and he doesn't have Ax clubs).

well it's 10 for the board pairing alone so 3 club outs doesn't sound right
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Old 05-08-2021, 05:00 PM   #3
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

Does he pot the turn here with bare spades? Seems like an awkward stack size for him to be potting the turn with a flush draw, and sucks for him when you c/jam. If he is potting here with bare spades just throw it into a sim on where your equity lies with AQ of course. I believe if he's potting here with all his spades you should GII with a great equity advantage, and if he only pots his AQ than calling is correct.
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Old 05-08-2021, 10:03 PM   #4
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

Excellent hand with a lot going on for discussion. There is so much going on that I need to think about postflop awhile longer. I'll stick to preflop for now.

I don't think KKc8c2c is strong enough to raise here preflop. If there was no straddle, then EP or MP I'm folding. With no straddle, in CO or BU I'm open raising. And with no straddle I'm open limping SB. Now on to the actually hand with you in straddle, since BU limps and is pretty much making it clear he is playing the hand even if there is a raise preflop, there is no reason to raise this weak of KK since you are not likely winning the hand uncontested preflop with them both folding. You are going to the flop out of position to a wild player.

My dislike of KK82 is so that I think I would have to be double suited to preflop raise in your spot.

Preflop has a domino cascading effect on post flop. Since you did preflop raise things are extremely interesting since you now have the initiative against a wild player with position on you. I need to think more about how to proceed as played.

The only basic thing I'll say about postflop right now is that in general I give people credit for having the Broadway when it hits. Even more so when the ten is on the board.

Last edited by ladybruin; 05-08-2021 at 10:31 PM.
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Old 05-09-2021, 02:32 AM   #5
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

I just wanted to say that this is WAY above both my bankroll and skill level but this is a great thread. I love reading OPs analysis and thought process as the hand was being played and the subsequent post analysis of others. This is the kind of thread that's very helpful to me.

@Ladybruin It's always nice to see you post and I'm a fan of your commentary. You really seem to have done a lot of analysis on KK PLO hands. I remember reading an in depth thread on a topic a while back and you were in depth about KK78 / KK79 limping and overlimping.
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Old 05-09-2021, 06:11 AM   #6
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

Anon1, yeah the AA hands seem to almost play themselves (as do 22 hands in the opposite direction), but it is the KK hands that are difficult to get right without under-valuing or under-valuing them.

TomCollins, it is awesome when you flop top set. You either have the current nuts or you have escape outs to a quality full house. When I flop top set, I secretly do an internal fist pump. But then I start thinking about not under-valuing or over-valuing my hand.

Players over-valuing their top set is what I see most often. For example, is there a flush or straight already possible? Or is there a flush draw or straight draw possible? Or am I up against multiple players? This particular hand has me cautious because there is a flush draw and a straight draw, as well as, multiple opponents. Furthermore, people play high cards. The straight draws here involve high cards and the ten is on the board. Straight draws against multiple people where the ten or the 5 is on the board makes the straight easier. So I am cautious here. And my cautions continue because I am out of position.

Boards that are non-paired and non-straights have a straight connectedness that you can count. The board connectedness can be either 0%, 25%, 33%, 41% or 49% (not factoring in your own cards). This flop of KT3 is the 33% connectedness and is the one right in the dang middle. I call the 33% connectedness the gray zone. It is so much easier to play the 0% and 25% one way, with the 41% and 49% connectedness played a different way. The 33% connectedness is classic “it depends.” And here that “it depends” is to be cautious for several reasons, besides just the straight draw, that were mentioned above like the multiple players, flush draw, and a high card board with the ten on board. Generally speaking I give people a lot of credit for having the straight when it is a Broadway straight.

So I’m cautious here. And that is before mentioning being deep. I’m even more cautious when deep. It is cool when you look at the size of the pot compared to your stack and it is 3 pots sized bets (stack to pot ratio of 13) and you could get it all-in by betting pot on every street. But that doesn’t mean you should. Also, you described the wild player as very aggressive. There are lots of ways to get 3 pots sized bets in with the help of a wild player. The flop could check through and you could still get 3 bets in on 2 streets with the help of a wild player.

So. I’m playing this entire hand more cautious than the way you played it. Preflop, I’m not putting in that raise. But as played, on the flop I’m not betting. Both of my changes to the way you played it would have a domino effect and create a much different situation. But IF I’m having to discuss an as played preflop, flop and turn, THEN on the turn I’m calling his pot bet. But I’m doing it with the intention of not disrespecting the amount of money I have left in my stack. Many people go to the river and call off the rest of their stack “because the pot was so big compared to my stack.” But that situation only happens because you didn’t fold the turn. But I’m not disrespecting the amount of money I have left. I can find folds, I can make ridiculously small blocking bets, etc.

On the river I’m betting if I make a flush, full house or quads. If the river puts up the fourth straight card then I’m check-folding. That covers the super good and super bad river. On any other river I’m “it depends” soul reading my ass off sometimes check-folding, sometimes check-calling and sometimes putting out the smallest damn blocking-bet you have ever seen.
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Old 05-09-2021, 03:45 PM   #7
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

I want to CRAI here on this board texture unblocking the main draws. I won't know here I stand on too many turns and I want to realize my equity. Let's hope action player bets for us (seems likely V will). I also overlimp this exact and similar KKxx, the side cards are too disconnected to raise for value, you are single-suited (and triple-suited at that).
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Old 05-09-2021, 05:23 PM   #8
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

Quote:
Originally Posted by Z06Fanatic1 View Post
Does he pot the turn here with bare spades? Seems like an awkward stack size for him to be potting the turn with a flush draw, and sucks for him when you c/jam. If he is potting here with bare spades just throw it into a sim on where your equity lies with AQ of course. I believe if he's potting here with all his spades you should GII with a great equity advantage, and if he only pots his AQ than calling is correct.
I was fairly unfamiliar with this player, other than seeing him take down a lot of pots to folds and sometimes chasing big bets and hitting, or aggressively betting his draws. I didn't have as much a history. Obviously knowing what I know now, I'd be more likely to shove the turn.


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Originally Posted by ladybruin View Post
Excellent hand with a lot going on for discussion. There is so much going on that I need to think about postflop awhile longer. I'll stick to preflop for now.

I don't think KKc8c2c is strong enough to raise here preflop. If there was no straddle, then EP or MP I'm folding. With no straddle, in CO or BU I'm open raising. And with no straddle I'm open limping SB. Now on to the actually hand with you in straddle, since BU limps and is pretty much making it clear he is playing the hand even if there is a raise preflop, there is no reason to raise this weak of KK since you are not likely winning the hand uncontested preflop with them both folding. You are going to the flop out of position to a wild player.

My dislike of KK82 is so that I think I would have to be double suited to preflop raise in your spot.

Preflop has a domino cascading effect on post flop. Since you did preflop raise things are extremely interesting since you now have the initiative against a wild player with position on you. I need to think more about how to proceed as played.

The only basic thing I'll say about postflop right now is that in general I give people credit for having the Broadway when it hits. Even more so when the ten is on the board.

Yes, this is a very junky king hand. However, we were playing 5 handed, there was no raise, and wanted to build enough of a pot against the loose player, given we were fairly deep in case I hit something. I did want to raise the top maybe 25% of my range, which this probably falls just outside of my range here. There is another meta angle here which is setting up steals where there's 5 limpers to my straddle and I can pot it and it's a very large raise for the players to call, and I can take it down fairly successfully. But yes, checking is probably best pre.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
I want to CRAI here on this board texture unblocking the main draws. I won't know here I stand on too many turns and I want to realize my equity. Let's hope action player bets for us (seems likely V will). I also overlimp this exact and similar KKxx, the side cards are too disconnected to raise for value, you are single-suited (and triple-suited at that).
Wasn't deep enough to CRAI on the fop. But it does set up a single pot sized bet on the turn if I pull it off. My concern with the CRAI is I get him to pot once, and then fold, a lot of the time. WIth this exact player, I felt like I had a reasonable chance to bet out, get raised, and then pot all in, and he might feel committed to fold.

I do raise preflop in this spot sometimes to be a bit deceptive, as a lot of times a raise preflop in this game is interpreted as AAxx. So I can take down a decent number of pots if an ace comes just by betting out, which is the disaster flop for KKxx (barring a flush/flush draw). I also tend to do this because a lot of players are very uncomfortable in big pots and I can move them off hands and take down bigger pots, and I'd rather be doing this with hands that can back into strong hands if I'm caught.

But table lineup at this point is this:

2 seat- competent but tight ABC player
3 seat - competent, but a bit looser, who also thinks I'm a bad/aggro player who bluffs too much
4 seat - me
7 seat - wild player
9 seat - bad PLO player who overvalues poor hands and happily gets money in behind

Given I'm UTG when the bad players have position on me, I am more inclined to straddle, raise, so that the *good* players get out of the way, since they don't want to play out of position with me.
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Old 05-09-2021, 06:04 PM   #9
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

One of the key components of open raising is the ability to win the pot uncontested and without rake preflop. But when you are on the straddle and multiple people have entered the pot in front of you, then the ability to win the pot preflop is mostly gone. But, if you asked someone who was on the straddle why they raised, then you will often get an answer that sounds a lot like their open raising reasons for raising. But I think the reasons to raise your straddle in PLO and in a multi-way pot need to not be open raising range reasons, but more similar to 3-betting range reasons.

For me to raise my straddle in a multi-way pot with triple suited KK's, I would need AKKx/ts which of course means it is suited to the ace. And the ace works with the hands that the x is a 2, 3, 4 or 5.

Last edited by ladybruin; 05-09-2021 at 06:24 PM.
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Old 05-09-2021, 06:18 PM   #10
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

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Originally Posted by ladybruin View Post
One of the key components of open raising is the ability to win the pot uncontested and without rake preflop. But when you are on the straddle and multiple people have entered the pot in front of you, then the ability to win the pot preflop is mostly gone. But, if you asked someone who was on the straddle why they raised, then you will often get an answer that sounds a lot like their open raising reasons for raising. But I think the reasons to raise your straddle in PLO and in a multi-way pot need to not be open raising range reasons, but more similar to 3-betting range reasons.

For me to raise my straddle in a multi-way pot with triple suited KK's, I would need AKKx triple suited to the Ace.
My game is not raked (time), so this decision goes away. My thought process here is I surely have the most equity in here, I'm a good deal better of a player, and I should be taking advantage to win a bigger pot later. Not that it's good logic, but it was my logic.
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Old 05-09-2021, 07:04 PM   #11
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

It’s easy to justify questionable preflop with “I’m so much better.” I do it too. But the best play is probably not to iso with a mediocre hand.
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Old 05-09-2021, 08:47 PM   #12
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

TomCollins, it is clear DumbosTrunk and I want to beat you with a rubber hose for raising preflop.

But DT and I disagree on how to play the flop. I want to check and DT wants to check-raise. I'm tired and might not post again until later tonight or tomorrow. But I'm interested in how many more people are in the check-raise camp. At 100bb, sure I'd play it fast and loose on the flop, but deep I want to keep things small on a two flush card and two high cards flop against two players. That is too many twos. But I might be able to be convinced to change my mind.

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Old 05-09-2021, 11:05 PM   #13
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

I just wanna reduce the spr now so I don’t have to worry as much if I’m outdrawn since the pot will be massive. If they blink the turn I’ll have odds to fill up against two players or I’ll let it go if not. The bdfd is nice too so we can still clearly gii on turns like this.

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Old 05-10-2021, 05:32 AM   #14
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

As I stated earlier, whenever I flop a set, I’m jumping for joy on the inside.

But the reason I am conflicted about the flop decision here is because of what I perceive to be a horrible preflop raise. I try to bulletproof my preflop decisions. And I often end up on the flop with an amazing amount of front-door and back-door ways to win a hand. Equity is a wonderful thing.

On this particular hand we flop a set. The equity is beautiful, yet I’m still conflicted.

Damn you KKc8c2c.

Also, the title of this thread says, “deep.” A $1-2 ($5 to go) game with a $1,200 stack is plenty deep. But, the moment it is straddled and then raised preflop, by the time you get to the flop in a three-way pot the SPR is 9. Although 9 is deep, the struggle in my mind is that if played differently preflop, we could be talking about an SPR of 40. Having bad players make mistakes at huge SPRs is a way to print money. But as played and with an SPR of 9, any type of flop all-in confrontation you get in with top set as the current nuts will be fine. So that covers the flop where you have top set and the current nuts. On the turn you no longer have the nuts. So I'm asking everyone, how should we handle the turn when we are probably now a dog at around 40/60?

And as always, I still reverse the right to team up with DumbosTrunk and beat the crap out of TomCollins with rubber hoses over that preflop raise.

Last edited by ladybruin; 05-10-2021 at 05:52 AM.
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Old 05-10-2021, 11:38 AM   #15
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

Yeah, preflop raise is bad, I admit it I've done worse for sure, but got a bit tired of straddling and never being able to re-pop it and punish limpers. Lowering SPR with a better hand that will go sour also seemed reasonable to me.

In this game I'm trying to pile as much money as possible with these kinds of hands or take it down now, and the real debate is how I can get it in fast enough. Absolute nightmare is he has a wrap and a flush draw, but even then he didn't raise pre, so it's unlikely he has that. With this player, I can see him raising me on the flop with just a flush draw or even some shitty straight draw. He's not an Omaha player (from what I can tell). He chases everything and puts pressure. Betting and appearing weak will get you raised, and then help win a big pot right now, or make him pay with horrible odds. Obviously it didn't work out that way, he didn't raise. I probably should check or bet flop maybe $50 to induce a bluff as an exploitative play. Lots of options here, don't think any are particularly bad. With SPR of 9 as mentioned, I'm trying to pile money in, not worrying about getting a lot in now and having a bad runout, given I can get stacks close to in on the turn. It started deep.

I think the turn play seems the most straightforward. Let him bluff at it with spades where I won't fold.

The nightmare scenario is AcQxxc, and that's super bad, but given the flush outs and he could be bluffing and won't pay off when he misses his draws, I'm liking a shove on the turn better. River I should have checked.
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Old 05-10-2021, 02:25 PM   #16
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

Turn is a clear x/c against most Vs, but against this one in particular I think there are merits to barreling. V is aggressive, may try to get us off the best hand sensing weakness. By betting we don't give him the chance. And if he happens to have it we can still profitably GII OTT.

Another upside to continuing/potentially shipping turn is you may be able to run it more than once and reduce variance. If you call you are stuck with the river on one runout if you don't improve.
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Old 05-10-2021, 04:48 PM   #17
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Turn is a clear x/c against most Vs, but against this one in particular I think there are merits to barreling. V is aggressive, may try to get us off the best hand sensing weakness. By betting we don't give him the chance. And if he happens to have it we can still profitably GII OTT.

Another upside to continuing/potentially shipping turn is you may be able to run it more than once and reduce variance. If you call you are stuck with the river on one runout if you don't improve.
No idea if this guy would be willing to run it twice, he seemed pretty gambley, but a lot of times gambley players want to run it multiple times on draws and once when "ahead". I didn't consider betting here again, felt like it might scare off weaker hands that might bluff, and given I'm never folding here this deep, wasn't sure. But I like the idea same reason I bet the flop, he might try to bluff me. What sizing do you bet turn? Pot? Or maybe a little less like 200-250?
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Old 05-10-2021, 05:28 PM   #18
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

Potting is polarizing and we arenít polar. Iíd probably go 1/2 pot to keep his calling range wide and still charge the flush draws.
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Old 05-10-2021, 07:20 PM   #19
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

There are times in poker where a hand plays out a certain way. You are telling a story and you have to keep up the story.

I would have played the hand differently, but as played preflop and flop, I think you have to keep telling the story on the turn by betting (and betting many rivers). At least you get to name the price and to decide when, if ever, you fold to a raise.

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Old 05-10-2021, 07:57 PM   #20
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

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There are times in poker where a hand plays out a certain way. You are telling a story and you have to keep up the story.

I would have played the hand differently, but as played preflop and flop, I think you have to keep telling the story on the turn by betting (and betting many rivers). At least you get to name the price and to decide when, if ever, you fold to a raise.
I had a similar hand the week before, where I flopped top set, and a straight got there, I kept betting, and got raised pot, and should have check called that one, but it was far less deep (turn raise was all in), and against a straightforward ABC player who is only raising with a straight there, so I kept that in mind when playing out of position.

Bigger issue I have is acting too fast and not evaluating options as carefully.
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Old 05-18-2021, 05:24 AM   #21
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

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Q1) Call or jam?

Q2) What do we do on the river in each case of neutral river, improvement, and bad river?
Personally I'm not a fan of calling turn. I think we need to either fold or jam.

Calling turn out of position lets the villain play perfectly against us.
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Old 05-18-2021, 10:17 AM   #22
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

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Personally I'm not a fan of calling turn. I think we need to either fold or jam.

Calling turn out of position lets the villain play perfectly against us.
Even if he shows me the straight, and knows what I have and folds rivers, I have to call. I have 37.5% equity against a straight. The only real disaster is if he has AQ with two clubs.

I do think a shove on turn was better. If he folds spades, I'm not sad. If he has AQ, I have lots of ways to catch up. And if he calls with spades, I'm certainly happy about it. If he has AQ with Ac and another club, I'm still 24% equity. Worst scenario possible is AQJT with Ac and another club, which is extremely unlikely, and I'm still 20%.

Looking back on the hand my options should have been:

Turn: Jam, Check/Call (close), Fold (never)

River: Check/Call or Check/Fold depending on river card.

Betting the river was a disaster in this spot. I should have check-called and hope he bluffed at it.
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Old 05-18-2021, 10:56 AM   #23
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

Looking at calculator, I'm only 49% against AQ + Axs ranges, so stacking off seems worse now, especially if I can induce a bluff on the river when I miss, and plan to call unless it's a dreadful card like a 1-liner or spade that doesn't pair. If I can get him to fold Axs there, he's giving up 32% equity, but getting about that to call, so it's fairly neutral if he calls or not with it, and he definitely is calling with AQ. In the rare chance I'm against a worse set, then I'm sitting pretty. So not seeing a benefit in jamming turn (although it's not terrible), unless I'm scared he's capable of bluffing me on the river.
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Old 05-18-2021, 04:56 PM   #24
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

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Even if he shows me the straight, and knows what I have and folds rivers, I have to call. I have 37.5% equity against a straight. The only real disaster is if he has AQ with two clubs.
Good point.

After I wrote this post, I tried and failed to think of a situation where I'd fold the turn.

Quote:
I do think a shove on turn was better. If he folds spades, I'm not sad. If he has AQ, I have lots of ways to catch up. And if he calls with spades, I'm certainly happy about it. If he has AQ with Ac and another club, I'm still 24% equity.
That's the kind of thought process I had. His range contains so many lower sets, 2-pair-straight-draws, and flush draws, all of which we don't want him to get a chance to fold on brick rivers.
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Old 05-18-2021, 05:04 PM   #25
TomCollins
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: The Blockchain
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Re: Deep against a maniac with top set

Quote:
Originally Posted by grant2 View Post
Good point.

After I wrote this post, I tried and failed to think of a situation where I'd fold the turn.



That's the kind of thought process I had. His range contains so many lower sets, 2-pair-straight-draws, and flush draws, all of which we don't want him to get a chance to fold on brick rivers.
I don't think he has a lower set. He'd raise me on the flop.

I was still trying to put my finger on this guy being a complete donk or actually a tough opponent based on how he played. In the past he had mostly chased his draws and I didn't see him bet without it (although he got a lot of folds). His aggression stood out compared to the normally passive/ABC players at this game, so I possibly weighed straights too much on his turn bet. It's really hard to tell if these players at this game just think they are stronger than they are, and this was a new player I wasn't familiar with. I'm generally going to call down a LOT lighter since they will value bet with really shitty hands thinking they are good ones.

The only real hands I saw was one where he chased down against someone who clearly had a strong hand and he hit on the river (and the other player jammed on him), and his first hand at the table where I had bottom two pair, I assumed he really hadn't played much omaha at all, and I got it all in with him short stacked and rivered a boat, and he didn't show.


I've ended up owning myself since then a few times, calling down with a set on a board 9 J Q 2 3, he had 8T and checked the flop (assumed players in this game bet straights, even shitty ones), and my worst self own was calling a big bet from an ABC player with board of AQ792 with Q9 and he showed QQ. Felt like a donkey on that one.
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