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Old 05-20-2021, 01:48 PM   #1
TomCollins
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Middle set vs. decent player

1/2 5 to go game, lots of regs. Players are usually fairly straightforward, but villain here is able to make plays when he thinks he can.

His image of me has changed a lot, first when we started playing he said I was a donkey, but last session before we played he said "the sharks are here, where at the fish?" He also made a comment that I never bluff (somewhat true, I don't bluff idiots in the game incapable of folding, but I definitely will bluff in the right spots against the right opponents, he just doesn't realize this because I rarely get caught).


This hand I have JJ8d9d in the BB.

2 limpers, he raises in SB to $20. I call, one limper calls.

V is $600 effective.

Flop: Qc Js 7c. Pot $65

He checks, I bet $45. All fold to V who calls.

Turn is Td.

He now leads pot for $155. I've rarely seen this guy get out of line out of position, and mostly will make moves when he senses weakness. This is extra tricky for me because now I hit my low-end straight, so this was supposed to be a pretty good card for me. I have the 9 and block K9, so I'm not sure what he has here but AK. I *could* see him making a move here with KK as blockers along with a flush draw. I have no clubs, so that makes that more likely.

I decide to call after some hesitation and checking his chip stack making sure he was deep enough- I don't think shoving helps any here. If flush gets there and he checks, I plan to bluff-shove to get him to fold a big straight, if I boat I can obviously pot it and make him in a tough spot, and if it's otherwise clean I'm happy to check behind.

River is 5d. He insta-shoves. Like the second the card drops. If this changed the nuts, and he insta-shoves I'm more likely to think its a bluff, but this was a safe card for him.

Hero ....
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Old 05-20-2021, 06:08 PM   #2
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Re: Middle set vs. decent player

Your read will answer better than anyone. I go closer to pot flop, call turn, fold river.
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Old 05-21-2021, 08:22 AM   #3
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Re: Middle set vs. decent player

I folded river.

Ended up talking to villain today, he claims he had nut flush draw + 89. Probably the worst hand he arrives at the river there and I chop in that case.
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Old 05-21-2021, 11:50 AM   #4
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Re: Middle set vs. decent player

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Originally Posted by TomCollins View Post
1/2 5 to go game, lots of regs. Players are usually fairly straightforward, but villain here is able to make plays when he thinks he can.

His image of me has changed a lot, first when we started playing he said I was a donkey, but last session before we played he said "the sharks are here, where at the fish?" He also made a comment that I never bluff (somewhat true, I don't bluff idiots in the game incapable of folding, but I definitely will bluff in the right spots against the right opponents, he just doesn't realize this because I rarely get caught).


This hand I have JJ8d9d in the BB.

2 limpers, he raises in SB to $20. I call, one limper calls.

V is $600 effective.

Flop: Qc Js 7c. Pot $65

He checks, I bet $45. All fold to V who calls.

Turn is Td.

He now leads pot for $155. I've rarely seen this guy get out of line out of position, and mostly will make moves when he senses weakness. This is extra tricky for me because now I hit my low-end straight, so this was supposed to be a pretty good card for me. I have the 9 and block K9, so I'm not sure what he has here but AK. I *could* see him making a move here with KK as blockers along with a flush draw. I have no clubs, so that makes that more likely.

I decide to call after some hesitation and checking his chip stack making sure he was deep enough- I don't think shoving helps any here. If flush gets there and he checks, I plan to bluff-shove to get him to fold a big straight, if I boat I can obviously pot it and make him in a tough spot, and if it's otherwise clean I'm happy to check behind.

River is 5d. He insta-shoves. Like the second the card drops. If this changed the nuts, and he insta-shoves I'm more likely to think its a bluff, but this was a safe card for him.

Hero ....
he has kk and a flush draw plus blockers? I want to play your game. Maybe you were drunk when you made that read? If you're flush comes, you're going to bluff-shove? lmao. He definitely had AK. This is like you never grinded 100 hands at 10/25c. He was protecting ak, getting value, every day of the week. And he might have a better flush draw. And if the board paired, he's not committing another chip. And the board isn't pairing enough long-term to call his lead. You literally committed yourself because "he had kk, a flush draw, plus blockers" LMAO. sweet god.. kids are starvin in africa and this guy playin PLO. And maybe he has aqdq.. that's the real worst hand he could have if he isnt a complete *******.

Last edited by Shot_taker; 05-21-2021 at 11:55 AM.
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Old 05-23-2021, 04:36 PM   #5
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Re: Middle set vs. decent player

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he has kk and a flush draw plus blockers? I want to play your game. Maybe you were drunk when you made that read? If you're flush comes, you're going to bluff-shove? lmao. He definitely had AK. This is like you never grinded 100 hands at 10/25c. He was protecting ak, getting value, every day of the week. And he might have a better flush draw. And if the board paired, he's not committing another chip. And the board isn't pairing enough long-term to call his lead. You literally committed yourself because "he had kk, a flush draw, plus blockers" LMAO. sweet god.. kids are starvin in africa and this guy playin PLO. And maybe he has aqdq.. that's the real worst hand he could have if he isnt a complete *******.
Re-read my post. I was saying I couldn't think of many non-AK hands where he would do this. There's a lot of AK in his range for sure, but there he absolutely is capable of doing this with another hand.

And turns out, he didn't have AK, but he had a hand I didn't consider which was Ac89xc. Turned the straight, figured I didn't have a straight, had nut flush backups if I did. I was pretty surprised he did this without AK, but looking back at it, it makes sense now.
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Old 05-23-2021, 06:51 PM   #6
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Re: Middle set vs. decent player

I slightly lean towards turn fold, villain range is reasonably strong and credible. But your decision to see river and fold to shove on a blank is fine.

Against very strong, aggressive opponents, we may prefer to be more showdown heavy, either by shoving turn or calling blank river because they will play their a and k blockers very agressively, and they have many aa/kk hands in range. But don't know enough about this opponent to conclude that would be better.
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Old 05-23-2021, 07:33 PM   #7
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Re: Middle set vs. decent player

OP I think u play well and think well NH

Iím on board for potting flop tho
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Old 05-23-2021, 08:04 PM   #8
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Re: Middle set vs. decent player

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OP I think u play well and think well NH

Iím on board for potting flop tho
What's the rationale for why $65 vs $45 on flop is so important? Normally the deeper I am the more likely I'll pot, but in cases where many players are shallow, I like to keep my bluffs cheaper and still can get someone all in when not doing full pot.
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Old 05-25-2021, 12:47 AM   #9
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Re: Middle set vs. decent player

C/c pot turn bluff seems pretty rare in my experience. Not like u can’t have wraps or ak +fd/2p type hands on the flop pretty ballsy to just go for it. Kinda unnecessary for him too he needs to have like naked nut flush draw or something to be worth bluffing u off sets/2p
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Old 05-25-2021, 12:14 PM   #10
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Re: Middle set vs. decent player

TomCollins,

Your post was about the turn and river, therefore since my comments are about the flop, I decided to wait awhile to let people talk about the turn and river.

On the flop, even though you have a nice hand and nice equity, I'm checking. The SB preflop raised two limpers. You have also called the SB a decent player. I'm putting him a strong range including AAxx and other high card/double-suited hands. And there are two other players on the flop. On that board, you have a nice hand that by the time everything is said and done you are going to end up folding a lot to flushes and straights. So there is no reason to bet the flop. Against three opponents you are going to see monsters under the bed on a straight making card, or a flush making card or even be in trouble if the urn brought a double flush draw.

On this sub-forum, I've brought up what I call, "being in position without the initiative." The pressure is on everyone but you, you are primed to take the free card. And again on the turn the pressure will be on everyone but you. You gave up your leverage on the flop. The SB, as the preflop raiser was screwed this hand in a 4 way pot until you let him off the hook.

The flop is 40% straight connect and it has a flush draw. I see this all the time where someone in your position bets the flop against multiple opponents and a draw comes in on a draw heavy board and the flop bettor is folding by the river. Multiway poker is played a lot tighter than almost all of the posters in this sub-forum are suggesting.

The SB raised preflop against two limpers. You can in some ways play perfectly against him by giving him AAxx and assuming he has it with the flush draw or broadway cards. I would have checked the flop being "in position without the initiative." And I am especially doing it against 3 opponents. Furthermore, my guess is that humans with your hand are over-folding the river because they bloated the pot on previous streets.

Last edited by ladybruin; 05-25-2021 at 12:42 PM.
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Old 05-25-2021, 01:07 PM   #11
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Re: Middle set vs. decent player

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TomCollins,

Your post was about the turn and river, therefore since my comments are about the flop, I decided to wait awhile to let people talk about the turn and river.

On the flop, even though you have a nice hand and nice equity, I'm checking. The SB preflop raised two limpers. You have also called the SB a decent player. I'm putting him a strong range including AAxx and other high card/double-suited hands. And there are two other players on the flop. On that board, you have a nice hand that by the time everything is said and done you are going to end up folding a lot to flushes and straights. So there is no reason to bet the flop. Against three opponents you are going to see monsters under the bed on a straight making card, or a flush making card or even be in trouble if the urn brought a double flush draw.

On this sub-forum, I've brought up what I call, "being in position without the initiative." The pressure is on everyone but you, you are primed to take the free card. And again on the turn the pressure will be on everyone but you. You gave up your leverage on the flop. The SB, as the preflop raiser was screwed this hand in a 4 way pot until you let him off the hook.

The flop is 40% straight connect and it has a flush draw. I see this all the time where someone in your position bets the flop against multiple opponents and a draw comes in on a draw heavy board and the flop bettor is folding by the river. Multiway poker is played a lot tighter than almost all of the posters in this sub-forum are suggesting.

The SB raised preflop against two limpers. You can in some ways play perfectly against him by giving him AAxx and assuming he has it with the flush draw or broadway cards. I would have checked the flop being "in position without the initiative." And I am especially doing it against 3 opponents. Furthermore, my guess is that humans with your hand are over-folding the river because they bloated the pot on previous streets.
Villain in this hand could be trying to isolate weak players by raising, he does raise the most frequently just about of anyone except me. He's definitely happy to get me out of the hand, and even being out of position against the other players, it's still a good spot for him. He isn't doing this light, but AA is only a small part of that range.

Given that I had a gutshot as well (although to a low end), I thought that helped with straights getting there, as I'd have one of them, but as I found out, when I get that card and then action increases, I'm in trouble.

Say it checks through, I hit that low straight, and he now starts potting. I think I call down in that case.
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Old 05-25-2021, 02:32 PM   #12
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Re: Middle set vs. decent player

Position in PLO is incredibly powerful. I have to take exception to you saying, “ SB villain in this hand could be trying to isolate weak players by raising them... it's still a good spot for him” Firstly, villain is in the small blind and will have the absolute worst position for the entire hand post flop. Secondly, you are talking about villain isolation raising multiple players. Isolating one player is a thing, isolation raising multiple players isn’t really a thing. Against multiple players you are instead just raising because you have a strong hand. Thirdly, it’s a 1-2 5 to go game, so I’m guessing it is a live game and even with Covid, most live games are back to at least 8-handed. You didn’t say the total number of players in hand, but in live games, players in early position limp with strong hands. Therefore, even if the Villain is up against two limpers that doesn’t mean the limpers don’t have reasonably good hands and they are always going to be in position on the villain. The villain cannot magically change the realities of PLO poker out of position against multiple opponents.

I say Villain has a strong hand. And let’s just use round numbers and approximations. Let’s say AAxx is 2.50% and Villian in this spot is raising a maximum of 10%. And that 10% is suited, high card heavy and well connected. I think even 10% might be too a high raise % against multiple opponents in a live game when the out of position Villain could have just completed in the SB.

You ended up on a high card, flush draw board against an opponent with a suited high card connected range. That opponent is the preflop aggressor and out of position to you. You are “in position without the initiative.” The SB is under a lot of pressure out of position against two other players. Also, the SB’s range is narrow enough that his hand is almost face up. You can play almost perfectly against him. Keep the SPR high and let him make a mistake that you can take advantage of. All of the things I am mentioning add up. Furthermore, from a game flow and winning money standpoint, you can’t bet too often here if you are going to end up folding too often on future streets. Bloating pots is bad when the bloated pot ends up being another reason why you folded a future street instead of being able to call lighter in a smaller pot. The board was Qc Js 7c. Why bet the flop if on future streets you are going to fold to a straight card. Why bet the flop if on future streets you are going to flush. You are “in position without the initiative.” You can check the flop and close the action for that street. Brother, you have nice equity, but it is hard to realize. Simply put, betting the flop only to fold the river, I think is a worse line than checking the flop.

Too Long, Didn’t Read: Middle set on this board is a small pot hand and I think you should have checked the flop.

Last edited by ladybruin; 05-25-2021 at 02:54 PM.
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Old 05-25-2021, 05:51 PM   #13
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Re: Middle set vs. decent player

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Position in PLO is incredibly powerful. I have to take exception to you saying, ď SB villain in this hand could be trying to isolate weak players by raising them... it's still a good spot for himĒ Firstly, villain is in the small blind and will have the absolute worst position for the entire hand post flop. Secondly, you are talking about villain isolation raising multiple players. Isolating one player is a thing, isolation raising multiple players isnít really a thing.
Him getting me out of the hand is absolutely worth it. I'm not sure I can accurately describe how bad players are in this game, and in particular the player who had the button. I tell people my win rates in this game, and they simply don't believe me. This is not because I'm a good player, but simply basic competence is enough to win big.

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Against multiple players you are instead just raising because you have a strong hand. Thirdly, itís a 1-2 5 to go game, so Iím guessing it is a live game and even with Covid, most live games are back to at least 8-handed. You didnít say the total number of players in hand, but in live games, players in early position limp with strong hands. Therefore, even if the Villain is up against two limpers that doesnít mean the limpers donít have reasonably good hands and they are always going to be in position on the villain. The villain cannot magically change the realities of PLO poker out of position against multiple opponents.
Yes, this is a live game against weak PLO players, I believe we were about 6 handed at this point since the game just started. We play up to 9 handed (sometimes 10 if we need to), but will start games with as few as 4 players. The game is half holdem, half PLO, so it ends up with people showing up that don't even know what PLO is.

If the SB has any nuttable hands, he will get paid the maximum any time he hits a good hand. The game is that simple. He has a nut flush? He bets away and gets called down by 2 pair (or sometimes an overpair!). It becomes obvious your opponent has nothing, you bet, and they fold. There is almost no bluffing by these weak players. There are no difficult raises when they have a good hand (had a guy flat call with KJ when board was KJJ83). So I can see him taking a good hand, raising it, hoping to get me out rather than have me call, and get more money in the pot, which also increases his chances of winning because these players can be manipulated easily by making big bets (they'll fold a lot), or smaller bets (they'll call with any piece of it).

My play in this game is very non-standard and completely different than how I play in a pure PLO game with reasonably experienced PLO players. This game is super passive (other than a few players who I do know are capable).


Quote:
Originally Posted by ladybruin View Post
I say Villain has a strong hand. And letís just use round numbers and approximations. Letís say AAxx is 2.50% and Villian in this spot is raising a maximum of 10%. And that 10% is suited, high card heavy and well connected. I think even 10% might be too a high raise % against multiple opponents in a live game when the out of position Villain could have just completed in the SB.
I definitely agree he has a strong hand preflop, but 10% seems too tight for him.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ladybruin View Post
You ended up on a high card, flush draw board against an opponent with a suited high card connected range. That opponent is the preflop aggressor and out of position to you. You are ďin position without the initiative.Ē The SB is under a lot of pressure out of position against two other players. Also, the SBís range is narrow enough that his hand is almost face up.
Disagree his hand is face up. This guy is capable of raising a lot of hands here, probably would say he'd raise as much as 20-30% of hands here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ladybruin View Post
You can play almost perfectly against him. Keep the SPR high and let him make a mistake that you can take advantage of. All of the things I am mentioning add up. Furthermore, from a game flow and winning money standpoint, you canít bet too often here if you are going to end up folding too often on future streets. Bloating pots is bad when the bloated pot ends up being another reason why you folded a future street instead of being able to call lighter in a smaller pot. The board was Qc Js 7c. Why bet the flop if on future streets you are going to fold to a straight card. Why bet the flop if on future streets you are going to flush. You are ďin position without the initiative.Ē You can check the flop and close the action for that street. Brother, you have nice equity, but it is hard to realize. Simply put, betting the flop only to fold the river, I think is a worse line than checking the flop.

Too Long, Didnít Read: Middle set on this board is a small pot hand and I think you should have checked the flop.
My reason for betting is this - I would expect him to continue betting if he had a strong piece of that flop. I'd expect him to continue betting on nut flush draws, any 2 pair, any flush draw + open-ender, etc... He *may* check-raise a monster like QQ, and then I'm a little sick. But given this player pool, you bet and get called by people chasing bad flushes. You bet and get called by players with weak straight draws. You bet and get called by top pair. So he will be very bet-heavy with anything that's actually good.

So when I bet, I actually expect calls from the weak players, who I am usually crushing, and probably a fold from the original raiser. When he is the only one who calls, but doesn't raise me, I don't think he's terribly strong, but has enough that he can get a nutted hand. Like AKKx, AAKx, especially with a flush draw. I was less worried about SB than I was about getting value from reasonably short stack players who are weak and will stack off with garbage. That's how money is made in this game - they will put it in drawing nearly dead against my hand.

Position goes out the window with them when SPR is super low, I have the 2nd nuts, and a backup with a straight draw.

Now say I check and they all check. I'm certainly not folding the turn when he pots it. I have the straight, I under-repped my hand.

Then on the river, if he pots again, am I ever ahead? It seems like it's a fold on the river even when i check flop.
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Old 05-25-2021, 06:17 PM   #14
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Re: Middle set vs. decent player

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Position goes out the window with them when SPR is super low, I have the 2nd nuts, and a backup with a straight draw.

Now say I check and they all check. I'm certainly not folding the turn when he pots it. I have the straight, I under-repped my hand.

Then on the river, if he pots again, am I ever ahead? It seems like it's a fold on the river even when i check flop.
Excellent long post. I enjoy the long posts, obviously since I often post long thoughts and is fun hearing other's ideas (I like the phrase "breakeven equity all-in on the flop" I saw by someone somewhere in another thread). I shortened this because I'm hungry. I'm going to get something to eat and will think longer about the other stuff. But unless I did it wrong the SPR is about 9 which is low. SPR 4 or less is ram or jam, but SPR 8+ is still high enjoy they can't go crazy. Also villian checked the flop. Even if villain hit the straight on the turn, he is still out of position to two players with a flush draw board. He might check the turn fearing that he is getting freerolled. The ten on the board make the straight easier, someone could have the same straight on a lot of straight draws to go their flush draw. Fear of being freerolled here is real and villain might check the turn. Then you made it to the river cheaply. The ability to reach and maybe realize your equity cheaply here does exist.

I'm hungry, I'll post some other thoughts later. But I think you and I might have to agree to disagree on how brutal being out of position is for the villain especially against multiple opponents.

Last edited by ladybruin; 05-25-2021 at 06:34 PM.
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Old 05-25-2021, 07:41 PM   #15
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Re: Middle set vs. decent player

Okay I'm back. I saw a funny quote on someone's tee shirt as I was going to the store it said, "science doesn't care what you think."

If two players limp and then small blinds thinks he can win by raising with a 20%-30% range, well I can tell you math, position and PLO don't care what the SB thinks.

Also I'll just stand by me suggesting that you have a lot of equity, but that it is hard to realize. Checking the flop is a better way to realize your equity, as well as, save you from too many bet/flop fold/rivers.

And lastly, bad players are bad. We all get it. Bad players have paid for every car I have owned for the last 20 years. Bad players have bought me several houses. But you'll never see me on this sub-forum over-stating how bad the bad players are. In some threads at some point many people end up as a last resort for how they played a hand by saying, "the players in my game are bad." All I can say is okay and be careful of the poker version of the Peter Principle where you move up to a stake you can't beat because your plays are off.

I am on this sub-forum giving advice for how to beat bad and good players.

Last edited by ladybruin; 05-25-2021 at 08:08 PM.
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