Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
The point is that given how deep they are BTN can be 3betting UTG wide, so if we 4bet it squeezes UTG (who probably has us beat) and screws over BTN who is less likely to. Yes, if UTG (and to a lesser extent BTN) calls or ships it we are behind.
Screwing the button isn't the goal, winning the most money is. We are going to need to hit something to win this one. What % of hands do you think button is 3-betting against an UTG opener? Can't be that many I'd imagine. Why do this when we can outplay deep after the flop in position unless you are quite strong?
Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
I don't think it's the best option though, as I said: fold > 4bet > call.
I have the exact opposite order here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
If you were closing the action that would be one thing, but we aren't. UTG is gonna have a strong range. calling the 3bet caps our range.
Calling off 12% of our stack so we can hope to hit a jackpot flop is only ok if a villain always doubles us up, and even then we aren't always ahead or winning. This is kind of like 99 in this spot in nlhe, calling pre. is just bad even though it works out sometimes.
And after the 4bet that's not close to enough. The pot will be ~$90 and we'll have $20 behind. If we were HU we need to ship at least 60% of flops. Even 3way we can never fold on like 9h8s2d.
Closing the action is better than not, sure. But even if it starts raising again, playing this multiway is better than not given it adds more money and if we can get a hand to beat one of them we'll probably beat both. I'd only make this play if I planned to call if both players get all in. If I call, UTG 4-bets and button folds
This is far different than 99 in nlhe where when you are behind you are crushed. Here, one guy has AA other has KK, we have 30% equity!
Another big advantage we do have here is being short on the flop while both of them are deep. Being first to act when it's 1 pot sized bet left or less is great - we can ship it and the first guy has to fear a raise from the button if he didn't hit it well, AND he knows he can't bluff you to win that bet. Flop comes 982 rainbow as you mention, and you ship, the guy with KKxx UTG is in a tough spot. He can ship it and try to get that guy out, but if that guy has T987 he's in bad shape and now gets a lot of money in with one pair and not much of a draw.
4-betting is super annoying because now it gets the money in against the hands you don't want, and you have a high chance of getting called by one. I'm only making this move if I suspect one will fold, but I rarely count on a 3-better preflop to fold to an all in in PLO. They so rarely not getting the odds to realize equity, he only needs 33% and few 3-betting hands are lower equity than that even against absolute monsters. I don't see anything it accomplishes except driving out shittier hands that you want sticking around.
Running it against top 15% and 10% hands, we have 33% equity on almost half the flops, so I'm absolutely ready to ship it on anything favorable to us. You can can actually get hands better than yours to fold in those cases a surprising amount of the time, and if they call, so be it. Not even saying jackpot flops, but a lot of flops. Especially given he has to worry about the other player more than you.
Scenario 1: You call, UTG re-pots to $24. Button calls, you call, $72 in pot, you have $26 left. Ship it any time you have ~30% equity.
Scenario 2: You call, UTG repots to $24, Button folds. Pot is $36. Call or jam. Would have to debate what to do here, do we see enough flops to warrant folding away our equity vs. getting it in. HU vs. 5% of hands you see 80%+ equity on 20% of flops, and 40% equity on 50%+ of them. I probably check on the top 20% of flops and bottom 40%, and jam on the middle ones hoping for any fold equity.
Scenario 3: You call, UTG repots, Button repots. Stacks are going in, you call $44 to win $150. Need 29% equity. You probably have very close to that with their ranges. Not end of world to call.
Low variance play definitely is folding. But if I wanted low variance, I'd avoid PLO to begin with.
Don't understand the aversion to getting money in with as many players as possible here.