Quote:
Originally Posted by TomCollins
Looking at calculator, I'm only 49% against AQ + Axs ranges, so stacking off seems worse now, especially if I can induce a bluff on the river when I miss, and plan to call unless it's a dreadful card like a 1-liner or spade that doesn't pair. If I can get him to fold Axs there, he's giving up 32% equity, but getting about that to call, so it's fairly neutral if he calls or not with it, and he definitely is calling with AQ. In the rare chance I'm against a worse set, then I'm sitting pretty. So not seeing a benefit in jamming turn (although it's not terrible), unless I'm scared he's capable of bluffing me on the river.
You're 49/51 (basically 50/50) against the worst possible hands you're facing.
But villain's range contains sooo much more than that worse hand. So your equity against his range is really good.
Do you really think the villain is going to fold to your jam MORE often than he would bluff a missed draw?
A lot of rivers are going to kill your action because they improve your range, but don't improve his hand. E.g., if the board pairs, or a flush comes, or 4-to-a-straight.
If the river makes "a" hand, but not "his" hand, then villain is definitely going to give up >0%. So you'll see river check-check a lot and miss your chance to get his money in while he's live.
Last edited by grant2; 05-18-2021 at 05:25 PM.
