Quote:
Originally Posted by F_Ivanovic
I mean folding pre is pretty nitty but you can't seriously be saying flop/turn are fine..
Fine, I'll break it down.
Using a conservative estimate of 50% open (and with chip leader bullying shorter stacks you can easily go 75%) we have a major equity advantage vs his range:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
KsThTs9h | 60.76% | 362,640 | 3,828 |
50% | 39.24% | 233,532 | 3,828 |
Now obviously he's checking whiffs some of the time and puts in some smaller bets with some weaker holdings so the 60% number isn't what we have facing a bet, but it takes a lot of mental gymnastics to reduce our equity all the way to the low thirties where it needs to be a for a fold. If he's potting just better hands and flush draws we still have 46%. If this were a NL game and villain just open-shoved flop its actually close! And again, this is just 50% preflop range, we can easily give him 75%.
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
KsThTs9h | 45.70% | 273,559 | 1,267 |
50% & (*h*h**, Q***, KK**, AA**, 22**, 77**) | 54.30% | 325,174 | 1,267 |
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Turn is a bit closer. Unlike flop and preflop we're never in great shape, but we're also never really in horrible shape with a gutshot, flush draw, and possibly best hand if villain is semibluffing either of the flush draws. I suspect some people missed that we're just really shallow here, just over a PSB. So we need ~35% to effectively c/c, and if villain has just top pair+ and flush draws that's about what we have.
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
KsThTs9h | 35.52% | 686,841 | 10,933 |
50% & (*h*h**, QQ**, A***, 22**, 77**, *c*c**, Q7**, Q2**, 72**) | 64.48% | 1,251,186 | 10,933 |
So given that we probably have to put chips in we have to decide whether we're catching random air with a pair of tens or trying to bluff out maybe Qx and push random hands off their equity. It doesn't really matter too much. If you really want to make a deal about the flop bet size and how villain is super strong and we don't have 35%, and something something ICM, fine, I can see how a check-fold is arguable. But saying otherwise is never bad and just really far from a spew.