Yes, probably one of those 'fold PF' threads but perhaps still discussion worthy for just the Flop spot frequency question. (And maybe the Turn)
High action 1-2 (5 bring) four-card PLO with typical 15-20 straddle (front or B, mainly same 4-5 Players doing it regularly, mostly B) and stacks of $700+, but mostly over $1k. Effective stack here is B and BB with roughly $1200, MP covers with $2200
B straddle to $20, BB and MP call (typical) .. HJ raises to $60 (typical, LAG) .. B then raises to $180 (tight but stuck big)
BB, MP call, HJ folds (amazing) .. Pot is $605, 3 Players to the Flop .. 6
8
9
The spot .. BB has 6
6
9
T
.. $1020 behind .. top&bottom/bad gutter
BB is loosest of the 3 Players and has previously Donked (pot and less) this type of Flop in similar spots and taken it down a few times in the 4+ hour game so far
MP is strong 'passive' winning Player who typically doesn't show his strength until Turn/River, allowing others to hang themselves. Def wouldn't have AAxx or even KKxx here OOP, shows high-med rundowns and occasionally lower pp .. but probably not low pp in a pot this size.
B is perceived tight, but is stuck and can show up IP with other than AA/KK when frustrated .. and is visibly frustrated with the session so far.
So the question is how does BB proceed with bottom set, and how often 'balancing' between bet/check? Stick with the Donking (pot or less?) or check for deception holding a strong but vulnerable hand with minor blockers to stronger holdings? High probability that more chips are going into this pot, it's just a matter of when and if it's bluffing or for value (only value from MP).
Initially thoughts .. MP is rarely (maybe never) going to lead here, even with a straight, waiting on B action and 'knowing' he will hear from BB if it checks through and they have connected with the Flop. B typically would check through unless connected, but may be ready to bluff/protect AA/KK after BB has now 'not' Donked and take a chance at MP waiting in weeds.
As indicated .. the 'fold PF' birds will be out there, but take a look at the spot and if you have to just upgrade the rundown and Board higher up the food chain if you must. One might say (I do) that this is definitely a better spot against B since there are few 5-card hands, and realistically no sets, in B range, only MP.
BB would Donk out here 90-100% of the time if MP had not called regardless of holding.
The issue is that BB will not like any card T+ AP .. and there are a lot of them left in the deck .. WWYD? GL
Last edited by answer20; 07-11-2021 at 10:29 AM.