Yes, probably one of those 'fold PF' threads but perhaps still discussion worthy for just the Flop spot frequency question. (And maybe the Turn)

High action 1-2 (5 bring) four-card PLO with typical 15-20 straddle (front or B, mainly same 4-5 Players doing it regularly, mostly B) and stacks of $700+, but mostly over $1k. Effective stack here is B and BB with roughly $1200, MP covers with $2200

B straddle to $20, BB and MP call (typical) .. HJ raises to $60 (typical, LAG) .. B then raises to $180 (tight but stuck big)

BB, MP call, HJ folds (amazing) .. Pot is $605, 3 Players to the Flop .. 689

The spot .. BB has 669T .. $1020 behind .. top&bottom/bad gutter

BB is loosest of the 3 Players and has previously Donked (pot and less) this type of Flop in similar spots and taken it down a few times in the 4+ hour game so far

MP is strong 'passive' winning Player who typically doesn't show his strength until Turn/River, allowing others to hang themselves. Def wouldn't have AAxx or even KKxx here OOP, shows high-med rundowns and occasionally lower pp .. but probably not low pp in a pot this size.

B is perceived tight, but is stuck and can show up IP with other than AA/KK when frustrated .. and is visibly frustrated with the session so far.

So the question is how does BB proceed with bottom set, and how often 'balancing' between bet/check? Stick with the Donking (pot or less?) or check for deception holding a strong but vulnerable hand with minor blockers to stronger holdings? High probability that more chips are going into this pot, it's just a matter of when and if it's bluffing or for value (only value from MP).

Initially thoughts .. MP is rarely (maybe never) going to lead here, even with a straight, waiting on B action and 'knowing' he will hear from BB if it checks through and they have connected with the Flop. B typically would check through unless connected, but may be ready to bluff/protect AA/KK after BB has now 'not' Donked and take a chance at MP waiting in weeds.

As indicated .. the 'fold PF' birds will be out there, but take a look at the spot and if you have to just upgrade the rundown and Board higher up the food chain if you must. One might say (I do) that this is definitely a better spot against B since there are few 5-card hands, and realistically no sets, in B range, only MP.

BB would Donk out here 90-100% of the time if MP had not called regardless of holding.

The issue is that BB will not like any card T+ AP .. and there are a lot of them left in the deck .. WWYD? GL

You played a trash hand and flopped a set with SPR less than 2 - just bet/gii.
Why are you playing this garbage oop in the first place? Serious question.

yah no choice but to rip and hope for the best i guess

You say top and bottom like you have 2 pairs, so is it a set or two pairs?

Interesting spot, probably a lead here. There’s not a ton of good turn cards and if we are calling this wide like this is a board we should have in our leading range. I’m guessing the sizing should just be pot/ GII.

Sorry, it is bottom set with a 'top' pair as well .. This factors into the Turn, so I might as well put it out there right now for the 2nd decision point.

Flop checks through .. Turn 8 .. action on BB. GL

8 of?
Against anyone reasonably competent, if you bet and get called you are probably crushed. Check and hope someone (a) bets and (b) they are bluffing. You're not beating any value bet here.
You do at least block 99. Maybe one of them has a stab with the straight.

Ugly spot. This flop hits you hard enough that you can't abandon ship, but not hard enough that you can escape the regret of calling that 3-bet.

On the flop I think you need to bet-fold for protection. Your hand will almost never be stronger than it is at that moment, so you may as well fold out the overpairs/backdoors/gutshots. I'd bet $250 or $300. I'd lean to the bigger end because the smaller donk bets often seem to telegraph the scared-strength of your hand and let people play perfectly. Whereas $300 starts to look like you're committing yourself, so you can lure out a raise from someone like MP.

As played: check and evaluate. If there's any action after you on the turn, you have to try to decide if it means you're crushed, or if it's someone trying to realize equity against your middling hand.

pot the mother ****er

you can't bet fold at this spr.

Why not?

What is the range of our opponents which: (a) they can raise us and (b) we are either ahead of them, or have good odds to get ahead of them?

Do we really have enough equity to throw in another $700 into a $1900 pot? I'm not sure we have that against the range above. It would require a loose or maniacal opponent(s), and description doesn't make that seem the case.

If you bet $300 and get shoved on, you need to call $700 to win 2800 or 3100 if MP also calls the 300 then folds. You don't need to be ahead, you need 25% or less equity blocking 99. Worst case you have 5 outs + backdoors vs 99, 7 vs 88 or need to fill up vs a flopped straight. Guess if these are the only raising hands in villain range and they never, ever shove a wrap or worse here you can fold, but that's the type of decision playing tripe like this forces on you. An incorrect fold is much more of an error than an incorrect call. Again, flopping a set at SPR 2 should be a trivial bet/gii.

- Pot is $605.
- $300 bet makes pot $905.
- A pot-raise adds $1020 effective, so pot is $1925

1) Hero has to call $720 to win $1925. 2.67:1, requires 28% equity to be a good call.

2) If another player call-folds the $300, then the pot is $2225, and the odds are 3.09:1 / 25% equity required to be a good call.

3) if both villains put it all in, then the pot is $2945, and the odds are 4.09:1, and 20% equity is required to be a good call.

...

So if we are behind either an overset or a flopped straight, we have at best 5 outs either way. I'd discount by 0.5 - 1 out, simply because who can raise on this board without probably holding the cards we need to catch up?

i.e., if someone is calling a 3bet with 88 or 99 (for an overset), they are much more likely to hold one of the 6/7/9 we need to pull ahead. If someone is calling a 3bet with 57/7T (for the straight) then they are much more likely to hold one of the 6/8/9 we need to pull ahead.

even if we catch up, our outs aren't clean. A 7 gives us 2nd nuts, an 8/9 gives us the worst boat possible.

Nonetheless, even if our outs are good, if we're behind we're at best ~23% to catch up.

...

So the question is: how often are we ahead, and what's the range we're ahead of?

The worst I'd expect someone to shove is .. 789J ? Which has 8 outs to get ahead, putting us at ~65% equity. 89TJ has 13 outs, putting us at ~45% equity.

I guess if we think we're ahead about 20% of the time, and behind the other 80%, then a push here can be profitable.

At this SPR? What about hands like JJTT, AAQT, AAJT, KK97, AQJT, QJT9. I mean when you consider our hand and the board, how likely is it that anyone else even has a middle card hand. Just gotta go all in and hope for the best.

We have 669T. A 9 gives us 9's full. Still not happy about where we are but it's a bit of a bonus.

A pocket pair of 77** is the lowest pocket pair that can flop a set as the nuts. When you play pocket pairs 66** to 22** and flop a set you should just instinctively decide what you want to do and do it without second guessing. The lower the SPR, the more likely you get it in.

Hero has bottom set. The SPR is less than 2. The flop is rainbow. You have a 9 blocking a higher set. You have an T blocking some straights. I would get it in and realize my equity. A human here is going to mess this up trying to be fancy. Just get it in at SPR less than 2. And as the first to act, I would do the betting myself hoping to get someone to fold. If they folded the bad straight, then that is awesome. If they fold something that would have backdoored a better hand, then awesome. Even misclick folds or misread board folds happen.

Easy jam. No point trapping.

a 3way pot and an spr of less than 2 makes this a donk for me if i'm in this spot in BB

edit: i guess i'm late to the party