Just calling for that price, even though kk+ turns up a lot based on our blockers. Ideally we run into weaker boat and a bluffcatcher like nonnut flush or nut straight with k.
I get it but we should be hesitant to raise because blocking nut flush and tens full greatly reduces the number of hands villains can call down with. We don't block kings full or quads. This gets a little more complicated because hero has almost no kings full or quads after double checkback, so we are literally at the top of our capped range, but if we want our river raise to be polar that is less important than having a k or 3 in hand.
I don't think this is a good spot to extract thin value without any supporting info - otherwise it will be hard to know what we should do vs a jam.
SB has a stack of 1k which you cover. He isn’t 3Bing KK hands from SB? Does he not have SB 3B in his range?
He bets 1/2 pot on river with KKK33 or 3333K? Why wouldn’t he CR with such nutted hands or perhaps bet full pot? What are ignition 5/10 player tendencies if he is a fish or a reg and can you tell might be worth weighing.
I am raising river to 250 to get called by all the 3X boats and TT boat that still exists and perhaps some flushes that thinks you are bluffing 3 handed.
Then folding to a 1k shove and likely perhaps folding to a min raise. I don’t know what to do when raised but doubt it will be a bluff until you know players are capable of it
I am raising river to 250 to get called by all the 3X boats and TT boat that still exists and perhaps some flushes that thinks you are bluffing 3 handed.
Then folding to a 1k shove and likely perhaps folding to a min raise. I don’t know what to do when raised but doubt it will be a bluff until you know players are capable of it
No one at 5-10 on Bonition is calling that raise size with a flush. And almost no one is calling that raise size with 3's full.
i raise fold. I dont think people fold k3 here or should although his hand distribution is probably weight towards kk. This is a spot I bluff in to so dont really want my value hand to be like KK exactly or some weird 33xx even if raising isnt directly +EV. I guess this is the worst jj you could have so might be edge case.
I feel like it has to be a mandatory raise, we have so few better candidates even considering our reverse blockers. I mean if we're not raising this, we basically are saying we are never bluffing in this spot either
Also I don't play that high on Ignition, but I'd guess that a halfstack is going to be a fish like 90% of the time (not just because of results) so SB could be betting river with a pretty wide range given the action so far that isn't just KK/33 so even if you assume worst case scenario against SB that he plays perfectly vs. your raise, BB can obviously still call trash and it still seems good
Results: you were cognitively biased to remember this rarer loser and forget all the times you successfully A) get tilt calls or calls from weaker value than JJ and B) protect your numerous bluffs by having a wider value range than KKK33, whether players can/do exploit this back in anonymous sites is a decent question.
I've said it before, but the check flop/check turn/action river ALMOST ALWAYS means monster hands.
So I'd just call, unless I was playing in against some of the donks in my home game who'll bet straights/middle flushes here and will pay off raises as well.
T
J
