heres the scene

***cts takes 10 minutes away from winning at life to check e-mail / fb / 2p2***

lalalalalalalalala o fb msgs, o email, o 2p2

cts lovely ladyfriend: cts we need to travel the world, ball and ****

cts: 2s plz gonna win the internet in 10 words or less

i dont understand how folding flop can be good when we hold 96 + 2 nut outs and are getting, what, 2.5 to 1? why?

sure cole, we're behind equity wise and have poor implied odds. but lolpotodds imo.

Do you lead any turns ever then?

What cards do you CRAI other than AKQJ OTT?

i think it's reasonable to check/fold A/Q/J/T/8/7/5, and to check/raise the rest, i think it's reasonable to check/fold AQJT875 and to check/raise the 9/6/2/K and to check/call the 4/3 planning to c/c river, i think it's reasonable to check/fold the T875 and check/raise the AQJ43962K, i think it's reasonable to check/fold the T875 and to check/raise the 962K and check/call the AQJ43 and check call 962KAQJ43 rivers. i think it's probably fine not to go as crazy on a deuce as i said in the previous posts. it's also probably reasonable to jam out the 4/3 sometimes as part of any of the above strats. and i think it's reasonable to play some combination of the above strategies as part of a mixed strat with this hand, but i think that's overly precise and almost impossible to pull off well at the table.

if your opponent semibluffs infrequently on the turn, i think it might be ok to jam out the AQJ43, but i would almost never do that in practice without a very strong read. it might also be ok to jam out on exactly the 4/3, planning on check/acting on the AKQJ.

so i mean you can play K/9/6 continue (6), K/9/6/2 continue (8), K/9/6/2/4/3 (16), K/9/6/2/4/3/A/Q/J continue (28). if a 6 or 8 card continue strat is +EV, then either opponent needs to offer you sweet implied odds on turn, or not semibluff enough, or some combination of the two. if a 16 card+ continue strat is +EV, then assuming you have reasonably positive EV on at least the K/9/6 you almost certainly have +EV on the flop call.

sry counted two deuce instead of 3

As interesting as the spot is, you always have to remember that there are multiple "fish" at the table getting it in cold with weird stuff. It can't be THAT bad to fold and look for stronger spots against weaker players.

If the villain pulls a move like this again in a later hand, now you have information about what he did this hand on similar boards vs your holdings, and that will let you make a better decision.

In a thread with this much discussion, over such a marginal spot, it really annoys me that anyone thinks that someone can come in, give their opinion, and that qualifies as 'winning the internet'. There have been lots of solid reasons given not to fold, and as yet the best reason to fold given seems to be a fairly airy pulled-out-the-a$$ figure that he's got sets 30% and draws the other 70% and who wants to get it in 30% of the time as a big dog?

Yes, sometimes we don't mind being exploitable in folding big hands live, especially when our opponent is likely to be a nit; even when our opponent isn't, we fold because we don't want to risk losing a big stack in a good position, and because it's too tight a spot, and we can't get hold of that much more money for the series, or whatever etc. But that's clearly not the case here - for like the 5th time villain is young, plays higher, seems like he's gonna be pretty solid, and has seen us pick up a few pots without showdown since we've been at the table together. What on earth makes you guys think this guy doesn't have a bluff-range? This is not a high, drawy board, which hits everyone's ranges pretty hard, this is a low, disconnected board with not many straight draws, some of which are dominated; if villain raises he can clean up outs, perhaps getting an 875x hand behind him to fold; maybe villain thinks we're cbetting light, or might fold a hand as strong as this, so is bluff-raising very light indeed. The idea that he's only raising sets, 9876 and wraps seems absurd to me. Given info provided, ime he's raising the flop lighter than the above like 20% of the time.

I would call and think about leading on some turns.

I also think he raises more flops other than full wraps and sets or combo 2pair+str8. He can have things like connected JJxx hands, QQxx+ gutshot and backdoors, just because he has seen you take down several easy pots uncontested. Since you mentioned he seems like a tough player, there really aren't a lot of 66xx hands that call PF IMO. I would put him more towards Pair/overpair+gutshot+backdoors type of ranges and wraps.

I'd call to see a safe turn then go with it. Probably c/f to straightening turns. But not a problem since I'd just concentrate really hard and hit a 9 or K on the turn. Can't say I feel TOTALLY AWESOME about getting it in on a good turn, but hey if he has a set, congratulations I guess.

+1. Except that he didn't win the internet at all, he just got a bit of fanboi love.

cts post and thread death are not coincidental

in the same way that once, when i had a cold, i ate an orange, and the vitamin c in that orange meant that the next day i was basically fine?

agreed. he may be right he may be wrong. but in a scenario where so many good players snap decide fold and don't give it another thought, he dives deep into thought. No situation to small or standard. in addition to that he expresses his thought process in more detail than most do or can. its not often he graces us with a post but every single time his post has so much more value than any book or video.

fanboi indeed. mancrush even.

I'd call pretty quickly; it's rude to slow roll.

In seriousness there's so many arguments to call:
- we are near the top of our range on this flop
- our perceived range can so seldom combat a raise
- we have blockers to the hands he is repping
- his PF range does not contain many combos of the hands that crush us
- his raise is only 3x which means if he gets a fold over 53% of time he shows an immediate profit even if he ZERO equity when called.


Arguments to fold:
- few nutty turn cards for our hand
- marginal but not terrible visibility on other turns
- positional disadvantage however mitigated due to low spr
- strong but not extreme hand strength
- our hand doesn't crush any portions of his range

I think this is a fair listing of arguments and I believe the calling arguments outweigh the folding.

To some extent these arguments are fairly close to b/c'ing 80-90% of one's cbet range 4way on this type of board. I think most would argue that that's a pretty debatable BM strategy, and that it's more likely optimal in the range of 40-50%, maybe even less given position.

sure, if we only cbet 15%

Being a live game op pretty much summed it up in first post, the read on the villain would be main decision with this hand-flop given its live.

I remember this hand, think I may have been one of the overcallers. Villain is The_Houdini on ftp, hes a boss. Don't really remember dynamics or who was behind, just remember thinking how ****ty of a spot that was and that I probably wouldve folded

I disagree, to the extent that this hand is much more checkable than a number of other hands, we'd like to cbet (imo, ofc). What's you're view on that?

What are we cbetting here? Any 9x and most overpairs, right?

Very interesting old thread.

I am not sold on cbeting this flop, not sure if someone mention it.

love that sauce and urubu who are best plo players itt get their advice basically ignored

Their advice was completely different, Urubu said jam flop, and sauce agreed with doorbread and CTS that fold flop was best.

.

ben is surely ecstatic now finally you took a stand and agreed with him.