Quote:
Originally Posted by borg23
we definitely play in different pools.
consisdering the spr almost nobody i ever play is just flatting bottom set on the turn.there is no card other than quadding, maybe a 7 and an offsuit 2 he likes on the river (there are a few others that aren't terrible). i lot of river cards either beat you or kill your action when ahead. flatting 44 is pretty horrible actually for a lot of reasons.
I agree flatting is pretty horrible. I play against a lot of opponents who don't think ahead and don't anticipate the betting on future streets. Sometimes, I might even be the only player at the table who knows what spr is. They also might have bottom set plus a draw and are mainly playing the draw, while thinking their set might be good if it gets checked through on the river. (They would usually check behind on this board.)
Sometimes, I have a table where they never have 44 because it would have been raised on the flop.
Most players, when they don't fold to a check-raise but don't shove, that means they have outs against a set. They called a bet on the flop, so most likely they flopped two pair or a straight draw and picked up a flush draw on the turn. They might have a jack and at least two overs to the 7. If they tend to be passive, they most likely need a made hand to bet the turn. A lot of players will take the free card with a draw.
So, when the check-raise gets called, the boats in his range are probably J7 and Q7 (with hands like QT97 or Q765).
So, my final analysis is going to be: bet the river if they can fold a flush on a paired board, check if they can't, and if you don't know what they will do, you probably shouldn't have check-raised the turn.
I'm nitty enough I probably would have check-folded the flop unless the bettor seemed weak. If checked through on the flop, I would have potted the turn.