Quote:
Originally Posted by cfreaks
If you are sure that nitty guy is going to bet again then check/jam. But if he checks it is not good for you. I would just bet out.
Every reply should include "fold pre" in my opinion. You have bad position and a terrible hand.
Hero has 3 players left to act behind him, I think leading costs us money here because it basically eliminates the prospect of any dead money being in the pot.
There are only a few ways this street go.. hero checks, more often than not nitty V1 bets and one or both CO, Button call and then we jam and force a difficult decision for villain holding a combo draw with diamonds and we can eliminate 2 diamonds from V’s outs.
Hero checks
Villain checks
CO or BTN bets based on the button slowing down, Hero jams.
Hero checks and it checks through, hero bombs all safe turns
Hero leads, all fold... or hero gets one or multiple calls.
I think leading allows opponents to play better vs. us... ie if V calls, CO/BTN could be priced in to draw to the flush (and we hate a river diamond because basically any other diamond flush has us beat), boat, straight... and we don’t know which rivers are scare cards for us, so we are going to miss value by checking on rivers that are diamonds, pair the board or make a better straight possible... it’s a lot of cards.
7 diamonds
~15-16 cards that either make the 7/8 high straight possible or pair the board. So we’re going to be OOP, likely checking river if we can’t just get it in on this turn.
Edit: Could’ve miscalculated number of scare cards. Did it in my head waiting in the check out line at the grocery store.